Download RUSSIA: Foreign Recruitment for War Effort Likely Due to Growing Desperation Summary: Moscow has recruited and coerced third-country nationals to fight in Ukraine. This almost certainly reveals a growing desperation in the face of mounting casualties, inability to achieve military objectives, and potential domestic upheaval. Background: From February 2022 to January 2026, the Russian … Continue reading Eagle Eye 491
Eagle Eye 490
Download SERBIA: Natural Gas Balancing Likely to Avoid Sanctions Without Harming Relations Summary: Belgrade’s mixed actions and statements regarding its future natural gas imports likely reflect a desire to avoid significantly worsening its relations with Brussels, and thus new sanctions, while maintaining its positive relations with Moscow. Development: On 10 February, CEO of Serbian state-owned … Continue reading Eagle Eye 490
Eagle Eye 489
DOwnload RUSSIA: European Union Secondary Sanctions Likely to Reduce Oil Evasion Summary: Expanded European Union (EU) secondary sanctions will likely reduce Russia’s ability to evade energy restrictions. In turn, this would probably increase Moscow’s reliance on narrower trade partnerships and less transparent logistics networks. Development: On 9 February, the EU proposed a new sanctions package targeting third-country ports and commercial … Continue reading Eagle Eye 489
Eagle Eye 488
Download IRAN: Nuclear Talks Likely First Step Towards Easing Tensions Summary: If the nuclear disarmament negotiations with Tehran in Istanbul succeed, it will likely accelerate efforts to de-escalate regional tensions. Background: On 2 February, Tehran agreed to enter diplomatic talks in Istanbul alongside other regional powers over the nuclear disarmament of the Iranian armed forces. … Continue reading Eagle Eye 488
Eagle Eye 487
Download RUSSIA: Cloud-Based Phishing Campaign Likely to Increase Malware’s Resilience Summary: A newly identified phishing campaign targeting Russian users will likely increase cybercriminal resilience by abusing legitimate cloud services to distribute Amnesia RAT and ransomware. Development: On 24 January, cybersecurity researchers identified a multi-stage phishing campaign targeting users in Russia that delivers a remote access … Continue reading Eagle Eye 487
Eagle Eye 486
Download SYRIA: Escape of Islamic State Fighters Unlikely to Alter Ceasefire and Integration Summary: The Kurdish Coalition known as the Syrian Democratic Force (SDF) is likely responsible for the release of Islamic State (IS) fighters from several Syrian detention facilities on 19 January. The prisoners’ escape is unlikely to affect the current ceasefire agreement. Development: … Continue reading Eagle Eye 486
Eagle Eye 485 – Fall 2025 Special Edition
Download CHINA: Non-Military Actions Likely Intended to Increase Positive Perception of Country Summary: Recent anti-China rhetoric in the Pacific, Beijing’s non-military responses, and its diplomatic missions worldwide likely suggest that Beijing is seeking to project an image of a peaceful country globally through diplomatic efforts. This likely represents Beijing’s attempt to counter its national image … Continue reading Eagle Eye 485 – Fall 2025 Special Edition
Eagle Eye 484
Download RUSSIA: Moscow Likely to Sustain Operations Through Use of Unconventional Tactics Summary: On 11 November 2025, Russian forces launched intensified assaults around Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast) and Kupiansk (Kharkiv Oblast), claiming significant territorial gains. Open-source imagery and video footage suggest the employment of unconventional and improvised tactics, including the use of motorbikes and heavily modified … Continue reading Eagle Eye 484
Eagle Eye 483
DOWNLOAD MALI: Fuel Blockade Almost Certain to Intensify, Allowing Jihadists to Increase Control Summary: Al-Qaeda-aligned terrorist group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) will almost certainly intensify its ongoing blockage of Bamako and other Malian cities. This will likely lead to the ruling junta’s destabilization and expanded JNIM territorial and governmental control. Development: On 10 November, … Continue reading Eagle Eye 483
Eagle Eye 482
DOWNLOAD MOROCCO: Western Sahara Resolution Likely to Result in Reforms, Economic Growth Summary: The United Nations (UN) Security Council recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, opening the region to new trade, investment, and infrastructure development alongside Rabat’s $15 billion pledge for social infrastructure investments. Rabat will likely leverage the increase in revenue from the Western … Continue reading Eagle Eye 482