DOWNLOAD DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO: Death Sentences Likely to Intensify War Summary: Military courts’ recent death sentences for soldiers accused of cowardice in clashes in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will likely exacerbate the conflict and decrease military loyalty to Kinshasa, thus likely not significantly improving security. Development: On 8 November, … Continue reading Eagle Eye 508
Eagle Eye 507
DOWNLOAD POLAND: Very Unlikely Chance of Russian Incursion into Northeast Summary: Moscow-directed armed groups are very unlikely to enter Poland’s Podlaskie and Warmian–Masurian provinces through 8 November. However, Moscow’s information operations and infrastructure sabotage efforts will likely target Poland due to current political instability. Development: On 2 November, the Polish National Police Headquarters (KGP) announced … Continue reading Eagle Eye 507
Eagle Eye 506
download RUSSIA: Bilateral Talks with Tehran Likely to Enhance Economic Influence in Asia Summary: Bilateral talks between Moscow and Tehran will likely enhance Moscow’s ability to project economic influence in Asia. Discussions regarding the Caspian Sea will likely strengthen economic ties, furthering the separation between Moscow and Western sanctions. Development: On20October, Moscow held bilateral high-level … Continue reading Eagle Eye 506
Eagle Eye 505
DOWNLOAD CHINA: Coast Guard Operations Likely An Effort to Expand Territorial Control Summary: China will likely continue using the China Coast Guard (CCG) to assert control over disputed territory following multiple involvements with Manila and operations near Taiwan. Development: On 8 October, a CCG vessel 5306 fired a water cannon while shadowing the Philippine Coast … Continue reading Eagle Eye 505
Eagle Eye 504
DOWNLOAD RUSSIA: Leveraging Taliban Relations Likely to Secure Access to Asian Oil Markets Summary: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov likely initiated formal cooperation with the Taliban to leverage relations and secure access to Asian oil markets. Strengthening trade agreements between Moscow and Kabul will almost certainly expand Russian access to Asia. Development: On5October, Moscow convened … Continue reading Eagle Eye 504
Eagle Eye 503
DOWNLOAD RUSSIA: Expanding Infrastructure Strikes Likely to Disrupt Ukraine’s Economy Summary: The strikes on Kyiv’s northern and southern bridges likely indicate that Moscow is broadening its targeting of Ukrainian critical infrastructure, following attacks on digital and energy infrastructure that disrupted services supporting economic activity. Development: On 1-2 October, Moscow launched multiple drone strikes against the … Continue reading Eagle Eye 503
Eagle Eye 502
download CHINA: Naval Operations Likely to Fracture Provisional Agreement Amid Rising Tension Summary: People’s Liberation Army (PLA), People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), and China Coast Guard (CCG) assets increased operations within Second Thomas Shoal, which will likely increase tensions with Manila and Taipei. Development: On 24 September, PLAN warships and CCG cutters blocked a Philippine … Continue reading Eagle Eye 502
Eagle Eye 501
Download RUSSIA: Arctic Oil Development Likely Signals Greater Cooperation with Beijing Summary: Moscow’s Vostok Oil exports and Northern Sea Route expansion will probably secure direct commercial access to Asia-Pacific markets. In turn, Beijing’s arctic infrastructure investments and resource demand will almost certainly deepen bilateral economic alignment. Development: On 21 September, the Vostok Oil project commissioned … Continue reading Eagle Eye 501
Eagle Eye 500
Download AFRICA: Stronger Military Response Unlikely to Dampen Islamist Insurgencies Summary: Islamist insurgencies across Sub-Saharan Africa will likely continue to intensify and expand geographically over the next six months despite African governments' turn toward harder military responses and new security partnerships, because the governance failures and security-force abuses that drive recruitment remain largely unaddressed. Bamako's … Continue reading Eagle Eye 500
Eagle Eye 499
Download NORTH KOREA: Employment Fraud Scheme Likely to Expand Beyond IT Sector Summary: North Korean fraud networks will likely keep placing operatives in healthcare, sales, and financial roles beyond IT over the next 90 days, evading IT-focused enforcement. Development: On 31 August, The Hacker News reported that threat actors linked to North Korea have expanded … Continue reading Eagle Eye 499