download CHINA: Naval Operations Likely to Fracture Provisional Agreement Amid Rising Tension Summary: People’s Liberation Army (PLA), People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), and China Coast Guard (CCG) assets increased operations within Second Thomas Shoal, which will likely increase tensions with Manila and Taipei. Development: On 24 September, PLAN warships and CCG cutters blocked a Philippine … Continue reading Eagle Eye 502
Eagle Eye 501
Download RUSSIA: Arctic Oil Development Likely Signals Greater Cooperation with Beijing Summary: Moscow’s Vostok Oil exports and Northern Sea Route expansion will probably secure direct commercial access to Asia-Pacific markets. In turn, Beijing’s arctic infrastructure investments and resource demand will almost certainly deepen bilateral economic alignment. Development: On 21 September, the Vostok Oil project commissioned … Continue reading Eagle Eye 501
Eagle Eye 500
Download AFRICA: Stronger Military Response Unlikely to Dampen Islamist Insurgencies Summary: Islamist insurgencies across Sub-Saharan Africa will likely continue to intensify and expand geographically over the next six months despite African governments' turn toward harder military responses and new security partnerships, because the governance failures and security-force abuses that drive recruitment remain largely unaddressed. Bamako's … Continue reading Eagle Eye 500
Eagle Eye 499
Download NORTH KOREA: Employment Fraud Scheme Likely to Expand Beyond IT Sector Summary: North Korean fraud networks will likely keep placing operatives in healthcare, sales, and financial roles beyond IT over the next 90 days, evading IT-focused enforcement. Development: On 31 August, The Hacker News reported that threat actors linked to North Korea have expanded … Continue reading Eagle Eye 499
Eagle Eye 498
Download SUDAN: More Refugees Will Likely Shift from Regional Havens to European Routes Summary: As Darfur remains a civil war hotspot between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudanese refugees will likely continue to concentrate in neighboring states, particularly Chad, Egypt, and South Sudan, in the near term. However, deteriorating humanitarian … Continue reading Eagle Eye 498
Eagle Eye 497
Download UGANDA: Kampala Pipeline Project Likely Faces Growing Regional Delays Summary: The East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) project will likely face significant timeline extensions due to mounting international financial pressure and environmental opposition. While project officials reported 82 percent completion as of April 2026, the withdrawal of over 40 global lenders and persistent litigation … Continue reading Eagle Eye 497
Eagle Eye 496
Download IRAN: Likely Retains Ability to Project Power Over Strait of Hormuz Summary: Tehran likely retains the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, despite significant degradation of its ballistic missile capabilities, and could renew its disruptions in the event of renewed fighting. Development: On 30 March, Iranian forces conducted a strike on … Continue reading Eagle Eye 496
Eagle Eye 495
Download SPAIN: Drug Tunnel Discovery Likely Reflects Transnational Criminal Networks Summary: The 31 March seizure of more than 37,000 pounds of hashish and $1.6 million in cash in a tunnel linking Morocco and Ceuta likely reflects increasingly integrated transnational criminal networks facilitating narcotics trafficking into the European Union. Development: On 31 March, Spanish authorities discovered … Continue reading Eagle Eye 495
Eagle Eye 494
Download LEBANON: Israeli Operations Likely Strengthening Hezbollah’s Domestic Legitimacy Summary: Israeli strikes and potential expansion of operations in southern Lebanon are likely strengthening Hezbollah’s domestic legitimacy despite Beirut’s efforts to weaken the group. Development: On 2 March, Israeli forces began a renewed campaign of airstrikes and ground operations in southern Lebanon, killing at least 1,072 … Continue reading Eagle Eye 494
Eagle Eye 493
Download KOSOVO: Political Deadlock Likely to Persist Amid Parliament’s Dissolution Summary: Pristina’s political deadlock will likely persist following the parliament’s failure to elect a new president and the current president’s attempt to dissolve parliament, which is likely leading to the third round of elections since February 2025. Development: On 6 March, Kosovan President Vjosa Osmani … Continue reading Eagle Eye 493