DOWNLOAD SUDAN: Tensions with Ethiopia Likely to Escalate over Grand Renaissance Dam Summary: Tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia will likely increase as talks regarding the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (GRD) break down. Development: On 6 February, Sudan’s Irrigation Minister Yasser Abbas warned Addis Ababa that any step to fill the GRD, located on the Blue … Continue reading EE 372
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DOWNLOAD MYANMAR: Military Coup Will Almost Certainly Result in National Instability Summary: The Burmese military seized Myanmar’s major political leaders and invoked a state of national emergency. The tensions between the civilian government and military leaders will likely precipitate national instability. Development: On 1 February, Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, sent troops to arrest State Counselor … Continue reading Eagle Eye 371
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DOWNLOAD CHINA: Coast Guard Authorization Leads to Almost Certain Territorial ConflictSummary: China’s use of its Coast Guard to fire on vessels and demolish structures in the territory that it claims in the South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS) almost certainly reflects a decisive push to regain territory that will lead to increased … Continue reading Eagle Eye 370
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EE-369Download MOZAMBIQUE: Escalating Insurgency Poses Threat to Long-Term Security and Stability Summary: The Ahlu-Sunnah wa-Jama (ASWJ) will almost certainly continue to escalate its insurgency as it gains legitimacy through a nominal partnership with the Islamic State affiliates, destabilizing the northern provinces of Mozambique. Government security forces will probably maintain the current military-focused counterinsurgency strategy, which … Continue reading Eagle Eye 369
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EE-368Download CHINA: Disengagement Discussions with India Unlikely to Result in Long-Term Retreat Summary: Negotiations between Beijing and New Delhi over disengagement at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) will probably decrease tensions, although a full retreat remains unlikely. Development: On 6 November, Chinese and Indian commanders met for the eighth round of disengagement discussions over … Continue reading Eagle Eye 368
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EE-367Download FRANCE: Growing Islamophobia Will Likely Increase Tensions, Weaken Diplomacy Summary: Growing Islamophobia in France may exacerbate Islamic extremism and will almost certainly heighten tensions between ethnic French and Muslims. Tensions will likely catalyze anti-immigration policies in Paris and may hurt French diplomatic standing globally. Growing Xenophobia: During January 2015, the French government banned burqas, … Continue reading Eagle Eye 367
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EE-366Download IVORY COAST: Incumbent President’s Removal Unlikely Despite Tensions Summary: Incumbent President Alassane Ouattara will likely hold a third term despite calls for his removal. Current opposition tactics will almost certainly fail due to ineffective protests, the country’s economic growth under Ouattara, and support for his presidency from military and other governmental institutions. Electoral Tensions: … Continue reading Eagle Eye 366
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EE-365Download KYRGYZSTAN: Reform and Change Unlikely Amid Rising Authoritarianism Summary: Ethnic tensions, democratic shortcomings, and corruption will probably facilitate a strong authoritarian government. This government will almost certainly seek to quell ethnic tensions, impede democratic reforms, and continue corrupt practices to maintain the status quo during times of political unrest. Kyrgyz Turmoil: The former soviet … Continue reading Eagle Eye 365
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EE-364Download MEXICO: Uncertain Future of Sonora Project Likely to Exacerbate Lithium Shortage Summary: Cartel activity and possible nationalization of lithium mining could threaten the output of the Sonora Project mine. Such a reduction could create larger supply shortages in a strained lithium market. However, companies interested in protecting the lithium supply chain might provide security … Continue reading Eagle Eye 364
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EE-363-1Download TAIWAN: Chinese Militarization Will Almost Certainly Raise Tensions, Prompt Conflict Summary: Due to its militarization, a growing independence movement, and likely increase in support from regional allies, China will probably view Taiwan as a growing issue and take diplomatic or military action to quell dissent. Longstanding Tensions: Beijing strongly maintains the “One China Principle,” … Continue reading Eagle Eye 363