DOWNLOAD EGYPT: Cairo Likely Seeks Alliances to Help Deter Regional Threats Summary: Since mid-February, Cairo took actions to promote political and economic development in multiple African and Asian nations to regain regional influence, support current allies, and develop new ones. Cairo reaffirmed its alliances with Khartoum and Amman. Currently, it continues investing heavily in Kinshasa … Continue reading Eagle Eye 378
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DOWNLOAD NORTH KOREA: Persistence of Increased Cyberattacks Likely to Fund Nuclear Program Summary: The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) sponsored and conducted a series of unprecedented cyberattacks through the efforts of various Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups. The DPRK-sponsored cyberattacks will almost certainly continue and will likely escalate, reinforced by the successes demonstrated in … Continue reading Eagle Eye 377
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DOWNLOAD EGYPT: Cairo Likely to Use All Options to Counter Ethiopian Nile Dam Summary: Since the start of the year, talks between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) have broken down, while the occurrence of alleged Egyptian-backed proxy conflict has increased at the Sudanese-Ethiopian border. Recently, Cairo has taken … Continue reading Eagle Eye 376
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DOWNLOAD EGYPT: Pledge of Support to Libya Likely Indicates Future Cooperation Summary: A meeting between the Egyptian President and the Interim Libyan Prime Minister will likely lead to Egypt taking more responsibility in rebuilding Libya’s national government. Development: On 18 February, more than six years after closing its embassy in Tripoli, Egyptian President Abdel … Continue reading Eagle Eye 375
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DOWNLOAD AFGHANISTAN: Increasing Bombings Likely Targeting Police and Military Forces Summary: The increasing trend of unclaimed bombings in Kabul indicates the bombings will almost certainly happen again and will likely target police and military forces. Development: On 21 February, unknown persons detonated two bombs in Kabul, killing three and wounding 20. A similar incident occurred … Continue reading EE 374
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DOWNLOAD Ethiopia: Closure of Eritrean Refugee Camps Likely to Escalate Humanitarian Crisis Summary: The closure of two Eritrean refugee camps in the Tigray region due to gender-based violence will likely lead to more unrest and violence in the region, further fueling the ongoing humanitarian crisis. Development: On 11 February, Minister for Women, Children and Youth … Continue reading EE 373
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DOWNLOAD SUDAN: Tensions with Ethiopia Likely to Escalate over Grand Renaissance Dam Summary: Tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia will likely increase as talks regarding the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (GRD) break down. Development: On 6 February, Sudan’s Irrigation Minister Yasser Abbas warned Addis Ababa that any step to fill the GRD, located on the Blue … Continue reading EE 372
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DOWNLOAD MYANMAR: Military Coup Will Almost Certainly Result in National Instability Summary: The Burmese military seized Myanmar’s major political leaders and invoked a state of national emergency. The tensions between the civilian government and military leaders will likely precipitate national instability. Development: On 1 February, Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, sent troops to arrest State Counselor … Continue reading Eagle Eye 371
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DOWNLOAD CHINA: Coast Guard Authorization Leads to Almost Certain Territorial ConflictSummary: China’s use of its Coast Guard to fire on vessels and demolish structures in the territory that it claims in the South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS) almost certainly reflects a decisive push to regain territory that will lead to increased … Continue reading Eagle Eye 370
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EE-369Download MOZAMBIQUE: Escalating Insurgency Poses Threat to Long-Term Security and Stability Summary: The Ahlu-Sunnah wa-Jama (ASWJ) will almost certainly continue to escalate its insurgency as it gains legitimacy through a nominal partnership with the Islamic State affiliates, destabilizing the northern provinces of Mozambique. Government security forces will probably maintain the current military-focused counterinsurgency strategy, which … Continue reading Eagle Eye 369