Download DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO: Cobalt Export Quotas Unlikely to Succeed Summary: While Kinshasa’s opening of cobalt exports will likely result in a slight short-term increase in the economy, the cobalt quota system will almost certainly have a negligible overall impact. Background: On 21 September, Kinshasa stated that it would raise the current cobalt export … Continue reading Eagle Eye 477
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Download POLAND: Moscow Will Likely Continue Drone Incursions into Airspace Summary: Moscow will likely continue to violate Polish airspace with drones as a to test security agreements between the North Atlantic Trade Organization (NATO) members. Despite the drone operations, Moscow will almost certainly avoid another significant military operation. Background: On 9 September, Polish officials reported … Continue reading Eagle Eye 476
Eagle Eye 475
Download ISRAEL: Rapid Offensive Likely in Preparation for United Nations General Assembly Summary: Israel is likely aiming to make significant progress in the conflict in Gaza before the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) discusses the situation to avoid increasing international scrutiny. Israel issued an evacuation order to Gaza while increasing its strikes on the city … Continue reading Eagle Eye 475
Eagle Eye 474
Download BRAZIL: Police Brutality Highly Likely to Continue Despite Countermeasures Summary: Police violence will highly likely continue, despite the Brazilian government taking preventative measures. A recent Supreme Court ruling on a landmark case on police violence in low-income neighborhoods will very likely lead the government to put new oversight policies in place. Even with … Continue reading Eagle Eye 474
Eagle Eye 473
Download COLOMBIA: Government Corruption Likely an Effort to Maintain Control Summary: Corruption runs rampant in Bogota, with high-ranking government officials likely attempting to gain political influence and remain in control. Systemic corruption and “Cartels of the Robe” attempt to exert power and control over politics. They accomplish this by using their positions and funds gained … Continue reading Eagle Eye 473
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Download BRAZIL: Political Corruption Highly Likely to Damage Public’s View of Government Summary: The continuous political corruption within the Brazilian government, exemplified by ongoing charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro, will likely damage the public’s confidence in the government. Given the Supreme Court’s recent ruling, the courts will likely convict Bolsonaro of an attempted coup. … Continue reading Eagle Eye 472
Eagle Eye 471
Download BANGLADESH: Chinese Presence Likely Intended to Support Seizure of Northeast India Summary: Bangladesh’s Interim Government Advisor’s recent request for Beijing to expand its economic presence in Bangladesh likely indicates Dhaka’s moving position to prepare a seizure of Northeast India. Development: On 31 March, reports stated that Bangladesh’s Interim Government Advisor, Muhammad Yunus, asked Beijing … Continue reading Eagle Eye 471
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Download SUDAN: Khartoum’s Recapture Could Likely Lead to a Momentum Shift Summary: Government forces recaptured the Khartoum airport from a paramilitary group, which could likely lead to a momentum shift in the Sudanese Civil War. Development: On 26 March, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recaptured the capital of Sudan, Khartoum, according to Al Jazeera. SAF … Continue reading Eagle Eye 470
Eagle Eye 469
Download ISRAEL: Prisoner Negotiations with Hamas Unlikely to Succeed Summary: Jerusalem’s prisoner transfer negotiations with Hamas are unlikely to succeed due to continued conflict during the ceasefire, along with Hamas’s poor treatment of prisoners and conflicting objectives. Development: On 8 March, phase one of the ceasefire with Hamas ended. Jerusalem and Hamas signaled they are … Continue reading Eagle Eye 469
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Download ISRAEL: Clashes With New Syrian Security Force Could Lead to Unintended Conflict Summary: A Damascus suburb, Jaramana, saw a shootout at a security checkpoint between new government forces and residents, which could lead to unintended conflict between Damascus and Jerusalem. Development: On 28 February, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights announced that Ahmed Al-Khatib, … Continue reading Eagle Eye 468