EUROPEAN UNION: Parliamentary Elections Likely to Reflect Rising Nationalist Power
Summary: Nationalist parties will likely experience slight gains in the upcoming European Union Parliament elections possibly creating a hung parliament and limiting the effectiveness of the EU. This could feed into anti-EU sentiment and add to the rhetoric of nationalist parties that have been experiencing a slow rise across Europe.
Mechanics of European Union Parliament Elections
Elections for the European Union Parliament (EP) occur every five years, with the next elections on 23 to 26 May of this year. Following Great Britain’s vote in 2016 to leave the EU, there will only be 705 MEP’s elected this year. Great Britain, which now must hold an election following the extension of the Brexit deadline, will gain temporary seats until it officially leaves the EU. Additionally, some countries will gain seats due to the necessary redistribution of permanent seats left vacant by Great Britain. This will likely serve to appease some countries with leaders growing skeptical of the ability of the EU to govern and could potentially increase voter turnout. The graphic below outlines the post-Brexit distribution of MEPs for the upcoming election.
Once elected, MEPs create transnational parties based on similar political ideology while still representing their constituents. Currently, the European People’s Party and the Socialists and Democrats form the majority coalition. Neither party leans to the far left or right, while the remaining six parties cover a wide variety of the political spectrum. These parties come together to vote for the EU Commissioner, assist in passing laws, and provide checks and balances for other branches of the EU. MEPs pass laws that directly impact EU citizens day to day lives, such as regulating how many hours people may work each day, laws regarding studying and receiving healthcare in other EU nations, and food regulations. The MEPs elected will have a large impact on the lives of EU citizens, and the parties that hold the majority will likely have the most say in the creation of these laws. Thus, when joining a party, MEPs likely have to balance both the views of their countries and constituents as well as the values and platforms of each party.
MEPs are elected through a direct election system, making it the only governing body in the EU to do so. The election system varies by country, but the EU Electoral Act of 1976 outlines general parameters all nations must follow. The Act requires member-nations to use a proportional representation system while electing MEPs. Additionally, individual countries have direct control over replacing MEPs, and citizens have the right to vote from anywhere in the EU, if they are only voting in one election.
Nationalist Parties Predicted to Gain Power
Current polls indicate nationalist parties will receive about one third of the seats in the EU Parliament, enough to block legislature proposed by leftist and centrist groups and create a hung parliament. For the past five years, the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Socialists and Democrats formed the majority coalition. However, experts are predicting a shift in this election. Following an increasingly apparent trend across much of Europe, nationalist parties are gaining more popularity and power. The major coalitions will likely retain a slight majority in the EP, although nationalist parties will likely make large gains. As a result, a hung parliament becomes more likely. The rise of nationalist parties will also likely decrease the ability of the EP to pass major legislation, although parties such as the EPP will remain in the majority. Regardless, conflict within the EP will likely rise impacting both its effectiveness and reputation. As a result, this conflict may spread to other branches of the EU where nationalist parties have not made as many gains, but still have influence.
Most citizens in Europe likely do not understand the extremely large role of the EP in day to day life within the EU. Aside from passing legislation dealing with daily life of citizens, the EP has power over the overall budget of the EU. MEPs can also approve, amend, or reject any legislation that passes through the EU. EP elections historically have low voter turnout. The lack of voter turnout could potentially impact the results, influencing a single party’s ability to gain more power. As a result, EU leaders may begin working to increase turnout to potentially mitigate any impacts of the current predicted outcome. This may occur naturally due to the amount of publicity surrounding this year’s election and the predicted outcome. Motivation to do so may come from parts of the public increasingly buying into nationalist platforms, and with current predictions, may have a better chance of bringing about change.
Outlook and Implications
With nationalist parties likely gaining more power in the EP, the overall effectiveness of the EP will likely decrease. Cooperation among parties will likely decrease when legislation comes to a vote as well. This discourse will likely lead to a decline in effective governance and fewer pieces of legislation passing, inherently fueling the rhetoric of anti-EU leaders. These leaders may perceive this discourse as support for their anti-EU stance and further fuel their narrative of the EU’s ineffectiveness. However, these parties likely will not pass any major legislation, as mainstream parties such as the European People’s Party will likely still have a large enough presence to block legislation from smaller parties.
Nationalist groups, while likely gaining power in the EP, have begun to split into smaller groups, creating new parties. While some parties have similar goals, this split partially prevented these groups from gaining more power in the EP and creating a majority coalition. In addition to this, with a lack of voter turnout, having an increased number of parties available means that the votes will be more split. This will make it harder for some parties, such as the nationalist ones, to make major gains. As a result, discontent and conflict among the parties is likely in the future. The different groups may decide to form a coalition, however, with the aim of combining the number of votes each party gets in an effort to potentially win a majority in the EP.
Due to the new Brexit deadline of 31 October, the UK must participate in the upcoming EP elections unless it approves a deal before 23 May. However, any MEPs elected will likely only serve for a matter of months. The EU will most likely not fill these vacancies, as it already redistributed Great Britain’s seats to other countries. If MEPs from the UK are elected, the likelihood of a stalemate in the EU grows, especially on Brexit-related issues. Due to growing frustration with Brexit proceedings, hard Brexit advocates are growing more popular and are polling at high numbers for the upcoming EP elections. If elected, officials will likely push for a much larger focus on Brexit proceedings as opposed to other issues. Regardless, the results of this election, if predictions prove true, will further weaken the Union and Europeans’ confidence in it, perhaps pushing other nations to reevaluate their support of the EU.
[Alli McIntyre and Elizabeth MacManus]
EGYPT: Amendments Could Extend Presidential Term, Consolidating Power
Summary: Egypt’s parliament passed constitutional amendments expanding Egyptian President Fattah el-Sisi’s power, shifting the country closer to a dictatorship.
Development: On 16 April, Egypt’s parliament passed several amendments to the constitution, which now await a national referendum. One amendment extends the presidential term from four years to six. Under this amendment, el-Sisi can run for an additional six-year term despite currently servinghis second term, which he won in 2018 with 97.8% of the vote after jailing serious competitors. Other amendments increase military power and allow the president to appoint Egypt’s top judges.
Analysis: The amendments will almost certainly pass the referendum, and el-Sisi will likely be elected for a six-year term in 2022, leading to a potential dictatorship as he continues to consolidate power. The constitutional changes show a power-grab largely unchecked by parliament or the judiciary, which both mostly contain el-Sisi supporters. The expansion of military power through one of the amendments may also lead to the state-sponsored ousting of government officials el-Sisi deems a threat, giving him the power to remove competition from office. Additionally, the vague nature of the amendments allows him to use the military to target individual citizens, which he may utilize to silence civilian opposition.
[Kaylee Coffman]
PHILIPPINES: President’s Warning Signals Potential Foreign Policy Shift Toward China
Summary: President Rodrigo Duterte proposed military action in response to Chinese Maritime activity near Thitu Island, indicating a potential shift from a passive to a proactive policy stance against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea (SCS).
Development: On 4 April, Duterte made a statement to China claiming that if Beijing “touches” Philippines-occupied Thitu Island, he will deploy troops to the island, characterizing his remarks as “words of advice,” as opposed to a warning. The statement comes after the Department of Foreign Affairs on 1 April enacted an official government protest against increased Chinese maritime activity near Thitu Island. Manila reported sightings of Chinese vessels near the island more than 600 times so far this year, with claims that the ships swarmed and blocked the flow of Filipino vessels. The Duterte administration reported a total of 275 ships, while a Filipino military spokesman reported 217. Thitu Island, part of the larger and hotly contested Spatly islands, served as an important strategic military point for the Philippines since the 1970s.. However, when a United Nations backed tribunal based in The Hague invalidated Beijing’s claims to the Spratlys in 2016, Manila did not defend its own claims to the islands and instead upheld China’s and encouraged Chinese investments and infrastructure projects in the Philippines.
Analysis: The Duterte administration’s foreign policy towards China will likely shift from passive to more proactive due to the increased maritime aggression in the region, particularly with Thitu Island. Manila’s occupation of Thitu Island as well as its strategic significance to the Philippines most likely prompted the shift in its policy towards China, as it likely aims to defend the island and its occupants as well as its sovereignty over it. The conflicting reports on the number of ships between the Duterte administration and the Filipino Military likely serves as a tactic of the Duterte Administration to intensify the situation in the region so that it has a foundation for its policy change. However, the Duterte administration’s recent statements and actions contrast its original stance of passivity and diplomacy with China, highlighted by his refusal to defend Manila’s claims to the Spratly Islands against Beijing’s in 2016. The Duterte administration will probably aim to strike a balance between keeping a positive relationship with China while still asserting its own power as the sole claimant of Thitu Island and its other claimed islands in the South China Sea. If the Duterte administration acts on its statements to defend the island, it would affirm a clear change in its current China-friendly rhetoric and foreign policy stance towards China.
[Collin Chen]
SERBIA: Thousands Rally Against President Vucic in Belgrade
Summary: Thousands of anti-government protestors in Belgrade gathered to demand the resignation of Serbian President Aleksander Vucic, although protestors will likely not gain the traction necessary to bring about change to the current Serbian government.
Development: On 13 April, thousands of protesters gathered in Belgrade to demand the resignation of Vucic, greater media freedom, and fair elections. Alliance for Serbia (SZS), a conglomerate of 30 political parties and organizations, organized the protests and have held weekly demonstrations across Serbia that began in December 2018. More people attended this protest than any other since December 2018. Demonstrators reiterated their previous demands for Vucic’s government to step down, but also added new demands, which include creating a joint commission comprised of government and opposition representatives to work towards fair elections, replacing the board of Electronic Media Regulating Agency, and altering the management of Serbia’s public broadcaster. Vucic encountered protests before in 2017, after he defeated the second-place competitor by 38 percentage points, a result many in Serbia question.
Analysis: Protestors will likely continue their weekly schedule but may return to the smaller demonstrations around Serbia. While protesters outlined several demands, SZS lacks a legitimate platform or candidate to challenge Vucic, making it difficult to apply true political pressure on him. SZS illustrates the disjointed, although passionate, nature of Serbian opposition. Many opposition candidates that do campaign lack broad public support and do not deliver on pledges to transform Serbia. Weak opposition also signals a deeper problem within Serbia’s governmental system, in which many politicians frequently switch political parties. This ultimately weakens each party’s political platform and allows smaller parties more influence over coalition results. Meanwhile, the scale of the protest may inspire a continuation of similar demonstrations previously seen in Albania and Montenegro against those nations’ respective corrupt politicians.
[Gianna Geiger]
