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ISRAEL: Netanyahu Opposition Will Likely Continue Developing Political Influence Despite Election Loss
Summary: Benny Gantz will likely maintain political influence in Israel despite his loss of the 9 April election for the premiership and will hold some leverage over the Knesset due to his political alliance’s control of 35 seats. Additionally, Gantz and the Blue and White Alliance will likely gain further support from the Israeli population during the fifth term of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, bolstering his effectiveness as the opposition leader to Netanyahu and the right-wing coalition.
Increased Opposition Presence in Israel
Gantz will likely continue developing extensive political support as the primary opposition to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the right-wing coalition subsequent to a dramatic increase in national and international support. Gantz established himself as the primary competitor to PM Netanyahu leading up to the April election, siphoning a substantial amount of support from political parties in opposition to Netanyahu and the right-wing coalition, and gaining significant media coverage from local, national, and international new sources. Increasing local and national media coverage and polls of Benny Gantz suggest that support will continue to grow. Additionally, The Blue and White Alliance will likely cultivate its support following its establishment of 35 seats in the Knesset, rivaling Likud as the largest single party in the Knesset. The Blue and White Alliance consists of the Israel Resilience, Yesh Atid, and Telem parties and now controls 35 of the 120 Knesset seats. The Blue and White Alliance established itself as a patriotic-yet-pluralistic and politically-centered party prior to the 2019 election.
Possible Indictment may Undermine Netanyahu
In addition to Gantz’ growing support, PM Benjamin Netanyahu will likely continue to lose political support due to Israeli Attorney General Mandeblit’s announced intention to indict Netanyahu for bribery in three criminal investigations, Cases 1000 (Netanyahu admitted Arnon Milchan and James Packer gave him gifts totaling a value of NIS 1 million. Additionally, Netanyahu assisted Milchan in both personal and business-related matters; however, he denies any connection between the two matters), 2000 ( Netanyahu admitted that he worked with Arnon Mozes about Yediot, an Israeli news site, adjusting coverage to favor him in exchange for lessening competition from Israel Hayom, a primary competitor), and 4000 (Former Director-General of the Communications Ministry, Shlomo Filber, admitted to engaging in a bribery deal with Shaul Elovitch in exchange for positive media coverage of PM Netanyahu under the orders of the PM), paving the way for Benny Gantz to capitalize and gain support from disenfranchised Israeli citizens.
Outlook and Implications:
Although Netanyahu holds a significant and well-established base of support from primarily secular and right-wing citizens, shifting popular political views and his impending indictment will likely push popular support in favor of Benny Gantz and his Blue and White Alliance. Although Likud’s right-wing coalition would maintain power for the duration of Netanyahu’s term, a successful indictment will likely sway public favor towards the center and away from the right-wing coalition. This change in Israel’s political landscape could likely result in a Blue and White Alliance victory in the following election. International disapproval of recent conflicts between Israel and Palestine could also shift public favor towards more peaceful relations, which align with Gantz’ and his party’s political platform. Additionally, Gantz already gained significant political momentum as PM Netanyahu’s main adversary and will likely remain as such in the next election.
Political control of the Israeli Knesset will likely affect Israel’s international diplomatic efforts. Under the current administration of PM Netanyahu, Israel remains consistently engaged in military operations in Syria as well as in Gaza and the West Bank; however, under the control of Gantz, would will likely re-enter negotiations with Palestine for a peace agreement, reducing the need for U.S. military support. Israel would likely preserve military operations in Syria to sustain a buffer of control against Syria and Iran, relying on U.S. military and diplomatic support.
[Riley Coder]
LATIN AMERICA: New Leadership Could Indicate a Regional Shift to the Right
Summary: Five countries in Latin America will hold presidential elections before the end of 2019. In combination with regional turmoil, the outcomes of these elections may represent a broader regional shift to the right and will likely demonstrate the impact of a changing geopolitical landscape. Understanding this shift may give indication of possible future trends of right-leaning governments.
Development and Analysis:
On 22 March, delegates from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, and Peru announced the formation of Prosur, an international coalition that will attempt to find common solutions to regional issues. Given the current right leaning political climate in South America, including Chile’s current center-right president Sebastian Piñera who will initially lead Prosur, it will likely lean further to the right than most international institutions. Reportedly, the goal of this institution differs from its predecessor, the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), which many believe became politicized to the point of no longer fulfilling a purpose. However, many critics believe that Prosur may have some of the attributes thought to have contributed to UNASUR’s failure.
One central considerations exist as reasoning for a move towards support of right-leaning governments: a reactionary response to the recent agenda proposed by left leaning officials, This originates within the context of the “Pink Tide,” a term coined to suggest the surge of leftist governments during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Economic stagnation in 2012 arguably led to the dissatisfaction of left-leaning leadership and helped solidify the platforms of parties on the right. In today’s context, Chile best represents the rightward shift. The reelection of Piñera in 2018 for a second non-consecutive term exemplifies the attempt at a coalesced stability in Latin American governments.
Right leaning religious opinion helps to create a base for conservative parties to gain popularity. According to Pew Research, one in five Latin Americans identify as “Evangelical”, while the numbers in certain Central American countries approach a majority. Evangelicals’ support of traditional conservative values often results in support of center-right to right political candidates. Additionally, right leaning politicians capitalized on the battles against rampant corruption in almost every Latin and Central American country and focus their rhetoric and policies on fighting corruption. A poll from Pew Research Center listed crime and corruption the top two problems for the region. As a result, many Latin American countries have vowed to fix those issues, which likely translates to growing support for the right.
South America’s rightward shift is further demonstrated by political events in Brazil and Argentina. In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro supports military rule, primarily as means of curbing the surge in violent crime. The first 100 days of his presidency showed mixed results, but many believe that political stability and harnessing the potential for economic growth will likely come sooner rather than later. Argentina will hold presidential elections this October, and its current leader Mauricio Macri faces a referendum in large part due to an economic recession. Polling less than 30% among his party, Macri will likely lose leadership in Argentina’s Congress. Of the leading candidates, both Juan Manuel Urtubey and Sergio Massa likely represent a shift to the right. Argentina will almost certainly focus on its internal problems first, although the country may soon shift to a regional focus.
Latin American countries will likely benefit from this opportunity for collaboration to work towards finding solutions for regional challenges. As many worry that international institutions such as Prosur will suffer the same issues as past coalitions, success will likely depend on the active involvement and adherence to a shared vision of regional economic and socio-political prosperity. Latin America’s right-wing parties effectively overcame perceptions of acting hostile and overtly creating inequality. In this case, Chile made significant improvements regarding income inequality. However, other countries in the region lack the same progress, but are attempting to improve. Effective continuity will likely drive success for right-leaning parties achieving regional influence. As the region attempts to solve shared problems, the leading countries will likely exert their influence in attempt to improve their regional and global influence. As a result, public pressure will likely center on Prosur, as citizens will expect an impact and the group to govern as effectively as initially promised.
[Bryce Leech]
MALI: UN Withdrawal Likely to Worsen Conflict
Summary: Canada and the Netherlands plan to withdraw troops from the UN operation in Mali, creating a power vacuum and likely exacerbating ethnic conflict.
Development and Analysis
On 30 March, Canada and the Netherlands announced they would pull their troops out of the UN mission in Mali despite the UN’s request for an increased presence. The UN considers Mali the most perilous of its peacekeeping missions, as over 200 peacekeepers died since the mission began. UN forces face upwards of 20 different armed groups, including the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Mali already lost ground to armed groups, and if the war escalates, the government’s power will almost certainly reduce significantly. Should the UN, or individual countries, pull troops out, the armed groups will gain significant ground, and given the weakened state of the government, one group may succeed in ‘conquering’ Mali as a base of operations. UN officials described Mali as a fight they cannot afford to lose, but if other countries follow Canada’s lead, one or more of these groups will likely overpower peacekeepers. Mali’s government failed numerous times to resolve the fighting, demonstrating Mali cannot fight on its own. Without the UN, the power of the government will almost certainly fade away, leaving a power vacuum.
Ethnic tensions between the Dogon and Fulani further complicate the UN mission. The dispute shifted from a regional conflict to a full-scale ethnic cleansing earlier in March, with an attack that left over 100 Fulani dead. The Dogon receive backing from Mali’s military and claim to target the Fulani because the Fulani support the armed groups, although tensions between the groups run much deeper. Land and resource disputes exacerbated the issue, and Malian officials could not resolve the conflict. Instead, the military reportedly provided the Dogon with weapons to fight the Fulani with. This could arise from the fear that the Fulani are conspiring with the Jihadist groups and may be the government’s attempt to squash the Fulani before they add to the war in the north.
If the Fulani truly collaborate with one of the Jihadist groups, it will likely provoke both the war in the north and the ethnic conflicts in central Mali. Depending on how deep the ties with such a group (most likely ISGS or AQIM) run, they could possibly provide the Fulani with weapons or materials to fight the Dogon. ISGS may also recruit Fulani members, turning the conflict into not only an attempted ethnic cleansing, but a jihadist mission as well. If this occurs, the Fulani may join the war in the north. Despite terror groups possibly enabling the Fulani, the Dogon outnumber the Fulani significantly and receive backing from the Mali government. Therefore, though the Fulani would likely not defeat the Dogon even with terrorist backing, its partnership with terrorist groups increase the likelihood of casualties for both combatants and civilians.
If the Fulani join the armed forces in northern Mali at the same time that Canada withdraws its troops, it could give whichever group they join an upper-hand in the conflict. Because the 20 groups work against each other, rather than with each other, the Fulani could tip the scales as to which group comes out on top. This group would likely be the one to push further into central Mali and continue to destabilize the region. If Mali’s government breaks down, the Fulani-aligned group could rise to fill the power vacuum. The UN votes to renew the mission in Mali this summer. With Canada and the Netherlands withdrawing, the momentum will likely not push a renewal of the mission. Additionally, other countries may follow suit. Ultimately, The UN’s decision to renew or not will likely set the stage for the future direction of the conflict.
[Kaylee Coffman]
