CHINA: Investment in Africa Furthers Beijing’s Influence and Freedom of Action
Summary: China’s significant investment in infrastructure and mining projects in Africa strongly indicates Beijing’s attempt to leverage the continent’s resources and emerging economies for regional influence. China’s presence will likely give additional strategic options over other actors near the Middle East and Southern Europe.
Chinese Investment Across Africa: China has invested over $55 billion in African infrastructure projects (shown in the graphics below), which will almost certainly result in significant leverage over African resources and infrastructure. China offers many African countries the money to build key infrastructure, including ports, power plants, and dams, but China has also established a pattern of extorting benefactors, requiring control over resources in exchange for Chinese investments. China will likely utilize these resources to further its status as a world power and override Western influence in Africa.
Ports: China’s continual investment into African ports often comes with a stake or ownership of the port, which creates easy access to shipments, preventing Chinese isolation. Equatorial Guinea received $2 billion to improve the harbor in Bata, paid back by 15,000 oil barrels per day for five years. The payment method alone provides China with easy access to a vital resource, which would provide padding in the event of an embargo or sanction against China. In Algeria, a $3.5 billion deal between Algeria and China funded the El Hamdania port, in which China holds a 49% stake. Holding a stake in the ports creates an easy method to transport resources from other African countries, including oil and cobalt. China will most likely use the ports to send African resources to the mainland, as opposed to using a third-party port or company, which would cut down the cost of transportation. It also ensures China controls its own shipments, reducing western ability to interfere should the need arise.
Transportation: China will most likely utilize railways and trains to transport resources and streamline access to potential investment sights. China invested $2.9 billion in Angola’s highways, railways, and airports. A well-developed transportation system would make African nations more accessible to Chinese investors, furthering China’s ability to spot investment sites. China funded 90% of Kenya’s newest railway, a $3.8 billion investment. Officials expect it to transport 22 million tons per year. In the likely event that Kenya cannot repay China, Beijing will almost certainly take control of the railway and utilize it to transport materials free of outside forces interfering.
Mining and Resources: China’s investments yield massive amounts of resources, which will likely result in China controlling the market for precious metals like cobalt. China loaned $3 billion to the DRC in exchange for a 68% stake in a cobalt mine, among the largest in the continent. With such a massive stake in the market, China may find itself in a position to levy heavy taxes or tariffs on the metal. As cobalt is a key compound in lithium-ion batteries, Beijing may calculate that such restrictions would hinder US tech companies, forcing them to diminish operations and/or further outsource work to China. Guinea’s government secured a $20 billion loan in exchange for concessions in bauxite, the primary aluminum ore. Direct access to bauxite will likely result in China re-selling aluminum for higher profits, creating a demand for Chinese aluminum products. A Chinese corporation bought out Eritrea’s largest copper-zinc mining operator, and now owns all three of Eritrea’s mines, with China receiving a 60% stake. China’s involvement with resource mining will almost certainly result in heavy Chinese influence in the market for these metals and may lead to a monopoly or oligopoly for their products.
Outlook and implications: Beijing will almost certainly continue to invest in Africa to maximize regional influence and economic benefits. China will likely also continue to leverage these partnerships to monopolize natural resource and gain control of key trade routes around Africa. Beijing will likely also continue its global expansion, executing similar strategies elsewhere in the world and in Latin America particularly.
China likely recognizes the need to inject foreign investment into its economy as it faces a slightly stagnated economy and risk of population decline in the long-term future. This global strategy allows China to diversify its economy and tap into economic resources it may not have in the future if it solely focused on growth internally.
China’s investment in Africa gives them significant leverage, soft power, and strategic advantage both regionally and in comparison to the US. China established itself as a reputable ally to developing nations, and as a result, created powerful sway in the continent. Chinese investment continues to overpower western counterparts and as this cycle continues, western powers will almost certainly struggle to find footing in the region, resulting in the inability to form diplomatic ties, trade deals, or leverage.
China’s
investments also reduce Western freedom of action against the country. By
securing its own ports, railways and resource streams within Africa, China
almost certainly dampens the impact of any western sanctions or embargos.
Requiring payment via oil or precious metals, as China did in Equatorial Guinea,
insures China would still receive resources, regardless of any attempts to
isolate it. Additionally, Chinese control over precious metal markets like
cobalt gives western powers little to no option but to trade with China for
these metals. It may also result in a Chinese monopoly or oligarchy, which
would create the potential for price gouging or heavy taxes on western nations.
CHINA: May Hold Responsibility for Airbus Cyber-Attack
Summary: China may have orchestrated the most recent cyber-attack against Airbus, targeting critical design data to support Chinese aerospace development.
Development: On 26 September, a cyber-attack targeting key information related to Airbus’ suppliers occurred, making this the fourth cyber-attack against Airbus within the past year. The suppliers targeted in the attack, Expeo and Rolls-Royce, have not commented on the extent of the damage the attack incurred. The targeted data specifically included engine specifications of the A400M military plane as well as the avionics and propulsion system for the A350 passenger plane. The hackers gained access through the Virtual Private Network (VPN), which connected Airbus to its suppliers. Although information regarding the originators of the attack remain unknown, an Agence France-Presse report suggested the hack bore resemblance to Chinese intelligence groups, especially JSSD and APT10. China has continually denied involvement in the attack despite the mounting suspicions.
Analysis: Despite China’s repeated claims of innocence, it most likely bears responsibility for the attack and may have waged it to support Chinese aerospace advancements. If a Chinese group did manage to steal data, it would have most likely transferred it to support a Chinese aerospace company, Comac’s, C919 development. Gaining information on such a reputable company would prove useful in Comac gaining the recognition it likely desires. Additionally, the targeting of military-based equipment could foreshadow the possibility of future hacking attempts on companies like Boeing, a rival of Airbus. Despite evidence suggesting Chinese involvement, the possibility remains that a separate entity disguising itself as China had conducted the attack. Alternatively, even if China did conduct this attack, it possibly could have intended to simply test its ability to wage such attacks without intent of using this stolen data for competitive advantage.
[Luke Overfelt]
IRAN: Military Activity in Golan Heights May Trigger Conflict with Israel
Summary: Tehran opening up its second front in the Golan Heights allows its proxies to increase their presence around Israel, which may lead to a possible direct, armed conflict in the Golan Heights.
Development: On 2 October, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) built military infrastructure on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, allowing Iran to establish a second front against Israel. Hezbollah supports the second front, located north of the Golan Heights in Lebanon. Reports show that the IRGC is recruiting local Syrians to work with Iran and Hezbollah. Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) believe that Iran shot down an IDF drone, the RQ-4A Global Hawk, near the Israeli border on 21 September. In this region of Syria where the drone went down, many IRGC units have conducted security operations. IDF Lieutenant Colonel, Avichay Adraee, believes that the Syrian government has allowed the IRGC to work independently without Syrian supervision in this region.
Analysis: Conflict in the region may erupt within the Golan Heights if the IRGC continues amassing its troops and proxies near the border. With the IRGC working in Syria without direct supervision, it could assemble into position with its Lebanese proxies. Israel would likely increase defenses in its northern region due to Iran and its proxies assembling near the border. Should Israeli drones continue to become a victim to Iranian hostilities, Israel may seek direct combat for result of its destroyed down drones. Alternatively, if Iran attacked Israel it would likely bring Saudi Arabia into the conflict in pursuit of mutual goals against Iran.
[Kysa Miller, Melea Tucker, Patrick Komanowski, Brandon
Schude]
ISRAEL: Jerusalem Bolsters Military Defenses amid Tensions with Tehran
Summary: Jerusalem is increasing and strengthening its military defense systems amid fears of Iranian drone aggression in the region. Israel’s defensive strengthening likely indicates fear of incidents similar to September’s Aramco attacks.
Development: On 7 October, Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that he intends to increase funding for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to improve missile defense and upgrade missile detection systems. On 14 September, Tehran facilitated attacks on two of Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities. Tehran supposedly fired 20 missiles in the attack, according to the Israeli news site, Haaretz. Drones found in the wreckage of the attack indicate that Tehran’s missile capabilities rivals Jerusalem’s. The Aramco attacks also demonstrate the precision and distance capabilities of Iranian missiles. Tensions have been increasing between Jerusalem and Tehran over the last several months; on 23 August, Iran blamed Israel for a drone attack on Iranian-backed weapons depots and military bases in Iraq.
Analysis:. Tehran will likely try to target Israeli territory as tensions between the two nations continue to grow. Jerusalem seems to recognize the growing likelihood of an Iranian attack, as evident through Netanyahu increasing the defense budget. Attacks would probably originate directly from Iran or the Iranian led proxies in Syria and Lebanon. Jerusalem likely will not strike first but they will probably prepare to deliver a military response in the event of an attack.
[Danielle Jamieson,
Abigail Clark, Emily Lewis]
NORTH KOREA: Threat to Resume Missile Tests Indicates Deterioration of Negotiations
Summary: Pyongyang threatened to resume both nuclear and long-range missile tests, which likely suggests uncertainty for security in the Korean Peninsula.
Development: On 10 October, Pyongyang threatened to resume nuclear and long-range missile tests following a breakdown in nuclear negotiations between it and South Korean allies in Sweden. These negotiations served as the first of such talks between North Korea and South Korean allies in over seven months. North Korean officials have declared these tests as self-defense, while European members of the UN Security Council condemned this course of action. North Korean officials also stated that the talks collapsed because South Korea’s allies did not have any new proposals to bring to the negotiation table.
Analysis: In breaking down nuclear negotiations Pyongyang will likely break its own suspension of both nuclear and long-range missile tests in the near future, thus abandoning any prospects to return to the negotiation table. Such a decision would likely have a disastrous effect on the chances of any sanction’s relief in the near future. Resumed testing would also undermine Pyongyang’s recent rapprochement with Beijing, given Beijing’s enthusiasm for economic development in North Korea and its interests in a stable Korean Peninsula. In continuing nuclear and long-range missile testing, North Korea will most likely further deepen its international isolation and hinder its prospects for rebuilding its failing economy.
[August Kather]
POLAND: Small Political Gains Likely Signify a Reduction in Nationalist Policies
Summary: The lack of significant political gains by Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party will likely reduce the amount of significant nationalist policies enacted into law.
Development: On 14 October, PiS retained a majority in Parliament after the announcement of election results. Final results showed PiS earning 44% of the vote, maintaining a slight plurality in the lower house, while losing the majority in the senate. The PiS, a conservative nationalist party, gained much support among Poland’s poorer communities, as its previous policies include generous welfare programs and a goal of redistributing wealth among Polish citizens. Among the more controversial of its policies include mass reforms to the judiciary system. These judicial reforms have garnered much criticism from the EU and opposition parties within Poland.
Analysis: The lack of a significant gain in seats by PiS will likely slow down, but not stop completely, the passage of significant nationalist policies. Without a strong majority in the Sejm and a lack of majority in the senate, PiS will likely not have the ability to pass a high amount of policies, so its overtly nationalist policies will likely not pass. Despite less support on other policies, continued expansion of welfare policies will probably continue to increase support for the party, as PiS can argue that these policies work for the good of the country. Increased support for PiS on account of its welfare policies, however, will likely not suffice as enough to engender enough support for more nationalist PiS policies. PiS may use the slowdown of bill passage as a point of leverage to showcase its efficiency when it had served as the primary party in power; PiS will likely use this to begin building political momentum for the next election.
[Alli McIntyre]
