CANADA: Liberal Party Loses Seats, but Maintains Control of Minority Government
Summary: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party maintained a plurality in Parliament despite losing several seats across the country. The decline in support for Trudeau’s party despite relative success on policy indicates an effective campaign from the Conservative Party to characterize him as a poor leader, and the general rise in support for nationalist values in Canada.
Liberals Maintain Power Through Minority Government: On 21 October, Canada held a general election in which Trudeau’s party won a plurality of seats. While the Liberal Party won most of Parliament’s seats at 157, it lost its previous majority and must rely on an opposition party to create and pass policy. The Conservative party, although winning fewer seats nationally, dominated in the Western provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan, and gained 121 seats. Separatist party Bloc Quebecois also gained, winning 32 seats. Additionally, The New Democrats lost seats, and now holds just 24 seats.
Although the Liberals gained the most seats, their inability to hold a majority in parliament strongly indicates a decline in support. Support for Trudeau has declined, likely as a result of negative perceptions of his agricultural policies, various political scandals and the mismanagement of responses, and a rise in support for nationalism throughout Canada. Many critics pointed to a lack of the promised reforms to the electoral system as an example of a major broken policy promise. However, an independent commission reported Trudeau kept 92% of promises made during his initial campaign to some degree, more than any Canadian Prime Minister in the last 35 years. The Liberals’ losses show that the public likely sees Trudeau as unappealing because of his conduct and not his policy.
Negative Perceptions on Agriculture Policy: Trudeau’s economic policy specifically regarding agriculture likely cost him votes in Alberta, British Columbia (BC), and Saskatchewan. The Liberal Party lost all its members of parliament (MP) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and several seats in BC. Trudeau’s environmental policy platform included a carbon pricing system, which taxes organizations based on how much carbon emissions they produce. Farmers and the agricultural industry strongly opposed this policy when enacted, even though Trudeau promised a carbon pricing policy in the leadup to his 2015 election campaign. Trudeau also faces criticism for plans to shut down a large salmon farm in BC because of its environmental impact. These policies have drawn criticism from citizens who work in agriculture who likely feel Trudeau’s policies threaten their livelihood.
Given the importance of environmental policy in this election, Trudeau’s campaign likely made a calculated risk to favor strong green policies. Additionally, Trudeau’s initial campaign promises in 2015 largely align with his policy today, indicating the Conservative Party’s increased use of negative rhetoric against him. The Conservative Party maintains a strategy of calling Trudeau hypocritical for using two campaign airplanes instead of attacking his policy specifically, signifying both the importance of the environment to most Canadian voters and a sentiment that Trudeau’s opposition can attack him as a leader more effectively than they can attack Liberal Party policy.
Mishandled Political Scandals: Trudeau consistently faces criticism for his acumen as a leader and his handling of various political scandals indicating his strongest perceived weakness as Prime Minister. The Conservative Party effectively labeled Trudeau as a hypocrite for his use of two campaign airplanes, and for his support of a large oil pipeline in Central Canada. Trudeau also faced criticism for his handling of an ethics issue in which he pressured a justice minister into dropping an investigation against a large government contractor on the basis that the investigation would negatively affect the job market. Finally, at the beginning of the election campaign, a photo of Trudeau from 2001 wearing brownface makeup at a party surfaced, which contributed to the narrative of Trudeau’s insensitive and hypocritical nature.
Trudeau’s perceived poor leadership likely stems from his initial election campaign in 2015 and will likely continue to represent Trudeau’s biggest single barrier to policy progress. Canadians in 2015 perceived Trudeau as emotionally intelligent but lacking aptitude for politics in strong contrast to his father and former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, who most Canadians view as a savvy politician. This comparison caused many Canadians to view Trudeau as unintelligent, a sentiment that grew with each political scandal. In his second term, Trudeau will likely struggle to change voters’ opinions particularly if his opponents can continue with the narrative established during the 2019 campaign. Trudeau will likely face further immediate outrage over his failed 2015 campaign promise to overhaul Canada’s election system. The Liberal party won more seats in 2019 but lost the overall popular vote to the Conservative Party, which combined with Trudeau’s promise to repair the electoral system before the 2019 election will likely generate further criticism from opponents.
Rise in Support for Nationalism: Trudeau’s Liberal Party saw a decline in seats amid the rise of nationalism in the Western World and in Canada. Bloc Québécois, a party that supports Quebec separation from Canada and promises to only support policies directly in the interest of Quebec, gained more seats than any other party in Canada. The newly-formed The People’s Party, a far-right party campaigning on preserving “Canadian values,” ending multiculturalism policy, and restricting immigration, emerged during this campaign. Though the People’s Party did not win any seats in this election, they will likely gain support in the future, especially if the current parliament cannot pass meaningful policy. The already increasing support of nationalist parties combined with stalemate in Parliament will likely contribute to nationalism gaining a further hold on Canadian politics in the next Parliamentary term.
Outlook and implications: The Liberal Party’s decline in support means it will most likely either need to form a coalition with the NDP or run a minority, which in both scenarios will likely lead to a decrease in the effectiveness of Canada’s central government. The most recent previous coalition between the Liberal and NDP Parties ended in failure, so even if the two parties can agree to a coalition, Parliament will most likely effectively form a minority government where the Liberals will require at least one other party for support on any policy.
The formation of a minority government will almost certainly decrease its effectiveness to govern, which will likely create mistrust for the central government and increase nationalist sentiment. To pass legislation, Trudeau’s government will have to partner with a smaller party to get enough votes. This will likely slow down the process of passing new bills, which will more than likely have a detrimental impact on the government’s effectiveness. As a result, nationalist sentiment may rise as a potential alternative to a government that citizens may perceive as ineffective. Additionally, the already increased support for nationalist parties such as Bloc Quebecois and the new People’s Party will likely accelerate this shift. If nationalist tendencies grow, it will likely become even harder for the central government to govern effectively, creating a cycle that will increase nationalist sentiment.
The weakening of Canada’s central government will also likely decrease support for liberal ideals on a global level. Many view Trudeau’s leadership as progressive; some see him as having optimism without severe cynicism, and as one of the more prominent liberal world leaders. Without strong domestic support, his ability to advance liberal policies in the international sphere will likely decrease. In organizations such as the G7, Trudeau remains one of the main liberal leaders, and as liberal presence dwindles, the G7 will likely begin to promote primarily conservative policies. A weak central government will likely demand more attention from Trudeau, impacting his ability to participate fully with global affairs. With nationalist tendencies on the rise in many European countries, Trudeau’s potentially inability to strongly push liberal ideals will lead to a decrease in support for such policies.
[Zach
Coffee, Gianna Geiger, Alli McIntyre]
CHINA: Revelations on Five-Year Cyber Campaign May Implicate China in Airbus Hack
Summary: A five-year cyber campaign, ending in 2015, led China to develop the C919 Plane using stolen documents. While the campaign ended in 2015, a recent attack against Airbus may signal a revival of the campaign.
Development: On 14 October, CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity company, released an incriminating report claiming that China masterminded a five-year cyber espionage operation against foreign aerospace companies to strengthen its aerospace industry. The report details that China sanctioned a hacking group, referred to as Turbine Panda, for a multitude of attacks against aerospace companies, both foreign and US-based. Some of these companies include Airbus, Honeywell, and Ametek. Using malware exclusive to the group, Turbine Panda managed to steal blueprints for the C919 Plane and deliver them to the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China. These hacks started in 2010 and appeared to have ended in 2015. Recently, a new hack against on Airbus’ Virtual Private Network (VPN) occurred with no known perpetrators; many experts theorize that China conducted this most recent attack too and are pointing to its five-year campaign as proof.
Analysis: While the hacks appeared to have come to a halt in 2015, the recent Airbus attack may indicate a new campaign altogether or the continuation of the previous Chinese campaign. CrowdStrike has not identified any definitive purpose for the campaign, but China likely sponsored these attacks to improve its aerospace development and gain recognition in the aerospace field as well as become more self-reliant. If Turbine Panda participated in the Airbus attack, it signals advances in the group’s abilities to target a VPN. Additionally, the recent attack, as well as the revelation of the 2010 campaign, shows that China may attempt to build other, stronger planes. These planes could serve any number of purposes from civilian aircraft to military. The Airbus attack adds more validity to the hypothesis that China perpetrated it; however, other actors could have performed the attack, as no concrete evidence has implicated Turbine Panda or China yet.
[Luke Overfelt]
CHINA: Increasing Utilization of Helicopters Could Support Territorial Expansion
Summary: Beijing is beginning to replace its aging fleet of foreign helicopters. Although based on older designs of foreign helicopters, Beijing is betting its helicopter technology quickly surpass rivals, providing major military advantages to pursue South China Sea expansion.
Development: On 10 October, China held the 4-day long China Helicopter Expo to celebrate 70 years of the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA). The display focused on the Z-20, which the China-based aircraft developer Harbin Aircraft Industry Group developed. The Z-20 draws heavy inspiration from Sikorsky’s Blackhawks that Beijing purchased in 1984, which Beijing has deployed on the Tibetan Plateau. To compensate for China’s widely-considered inferior engines, Harbin utilized fly-by-wire, commonly used in fighter jets for improved maneuverability. Beijing is also developing a naval variant of the Z-20, called the Z-20F, to replace the smaller and lighter Harbin Z-9. To complement improved helicopter technology, the Type 075 landing helicopter deck (LHD), with amphibious tanks and marines on board, is nearing completion. Song Zhongping, a military affairs commentator, expects LHDs to outperform aircraft carriers, providing greater ground operations potential.
Analysis: Beijing’s unveiling of its new aircraft technology may indicate that it aims to further improve its helicopter capabilities to support its efforts in the South China Sea. Although its helicopters derive from old models, Beijing believes its helicopters can rapidly evolve and will aid in China quickly surpassing its rivals in military development and further pursing its territorial expansion. Beijing may view its current aircraft designs as starting points in which engineers can further improve upon in ways unique to the PLA. If the PLA can establish helicopters initially based off of foreign aircraft, like Blackhawks, but with attributes unique to Chinese aircraft, it could create a competitive advantage over its military rivals. Because Beijing sees helicopters as crucial in its South China Sea expansion, it will likely prioritize improving its Type 075 LHD. In improving its LHD, Beijing would have better attack helicopter mobility as it could house more helicopters and also transport supplemental troops. Such LHDs in combination with improved helicopters could greatly improve China’s military presence in the South China Sea, protecting its economic and territorial interests.
[Ben Fort]
IRAN: Tehran Unlikely to Retaliate in Response to Red Sea Tanker Attack
Summary: Tehran likely will not retaliate against Israel or Saudi Arabia in response to the missile attack on its Red Sea oil tanker.
Development: On 11 October, two missiles hit an Iranian oil tanker in the Red Sea. Video footage from the tanker shows where the missiles came from and the angle of the strikes. Member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Abolfazl Hazzanbeigi stated that Iran blames Israel, the United States, and Saudi Arabia for the missile strikes. According to the Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Tehran allegedly possesses several documents and evidence suggesting foreign government involvement in the attacks. A senior Iranian lawmaker reportedly plans to take up a complaint with the UN.
Analysis: Despite the complex history between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel and the recent oil tanker attack, Tehran likely will not retaliate at this time, especially if the UN responds in a manner favoring Tehran. An attack in retaliation of the recent Red Sea strike most likely will only cause further conflict between Israel and Saudi Arabia with Iran, which Tehran likely seeks to avoid. Tehran probably will wait to see if its complaint to the UN results in satisfactory repercussions. Tehran may consider retaliatory action if it deems the UN’s response as inappropriate. Should Tehran decide to retaliate, although unlikely, it would likely target Jerusalem as US forces hold less presence in Israel than in Saudi Arabia.
[Abigail
Clark]
ISRAEL: Defensive Operations in Syria Will Likely Develop to Support Kurdish Forces
Summary: With the Kurdish conflict with Turkey in Syria, Israel may move to an alternative method of supporting the war effort rather than direct military intervention.
Development: On 15 October, Turkey sustained the offensive against the Northern Syrian region of Manbij. On 11 October, Israeli Defense Force (IDF) reservists relocated to the Golan Heights to further increase presence in Syria in response to an influx of Russian deployments in Northern Syria. As armed conflicts continued at a rapid pace in northern Syrian, dozens of IDF reservists began conducting humanitarian missions to the Kurdish refugees. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly stated support of the Kurdish people in times of need, upholding the friendship between Israel and the Kurds. On 10 October, Netanyahu declared a state of emergency, shortly after saying that it will defend itself against any direct foreign threats
Analysis: As the conflict in Syria continues, Israel will likely bolster defensive intelligence and military operations, increasing its efforts in Syria until the conflict concludes. As the Kurds flee the region due to the Turkish invasion, Israel will likely continue humanitarian aid operations to support regional allies and maintain geopolitical influence in Syria. As this conflict in Syria escalates, Israel may begin providing intelligence and logistic support to its Kurdish allies; Israel may, however, remain on the defensive as hostilities continue to develop along the Lebanon- and Syria-Israel borders, which would likely result in a more aggressive focus to combat Turkey, Russia, and Syria in the region.
[Melea Tucker]
NORTH KOREA: Increase in Cyber Activity May Prompt Other States to Invest in Cyber
Summary: The Lazarus Group’s and Chinese hackers’ increase in activity and subsequent successes could inspire other countries to begin sponsoring private cyber groups to bolster their national capabilities.
Development: On 15 October, the Lazarus Group conducted a new wave of macOS targeted cyberattacks, further increasing waves of offensive cyber activity from North Korea and China in recent months. The North Korean Lazarus Group has posed a threat to the cyber world since 2009, in 2017 stealing $571 million out of the $882 million of total stolen cryptocurrencies globally. To conduct such largescale theft, the Lazarus Group set up a fake trading company, called JMT Trading, that specifically targets macOS and gains complete control of the system when infected. Rather than focusing efforts on acquiring currency, Chinese hackers have been stealing jet plane plans for years to support the C919 airplane construction in China.
Analysis: The increase of successes among offensive cyber groups from North Korea and China could likely cause other countries to set up or sponsor cyber groups with the primary goal of stealing funds and secrets. The recent success of the Lazarus Group and Chinese hacking groups’ attacks could encourage other smaller cyber groups to use copycat tactics and commit the same offenses in the future, which could garner greater attention from larger countries with more resources to offer or exploit. Countries looking to boost their cyber capabilities may decide to employ offensive cyber groups trying to waging similar attacks, or they may choose to employ more cyber experts to bolster their cyber defense apparatus in response to increased threats from cyber groups.
[Michael McAdam]
SAUDI ARABIA: Meeting with Putin in Riyadh Could Reveal Intentions of Crown Prince
Summary: The first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 12 years could show the possible intentions of King Salman Al-Yammah amongst tensions in the region.
Development: On 14 October, Putin arrived in Saudi Arabia for an official meeting with King Salman to discuss major business and military deals. This meeting marks the first gathering of the two leaders since 2007. Previously, the two leaders cooperated on concerns regarding the oil industry and disagreed regarding regional conflicts. King Salman and Putin discussed business and defense possibilities, adding up to approximately $2 billion in defense contracts that would include the purchase of Russian-made defense systems. Recently, government officials in the region discussed possible indirect contact regarding the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Analysis: King Salman likely held this meeting with Putin to build partnerships with a potential military ally and possibly to prepare for possible outbreak of conflict with Iran. Saudi Arabia may consider the possibility for armed conflict with Iran due to the steady increase in tensions in the region, especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia. King Salman may have also sought for this meeting to boosting Saudi status on a global scale, which could increase support for himself. This meeting could exemplify a ploy from King Salman to obtain good graces from citizens and allies.
[Morgan Hodges]
