MYANMAR: Military Coup Will Almost Certainly Result in National Instability
Summary: The Burmese military seized Myanmar’s major political leaders and invoked a state of national emergency. The tensions between the civilian government and military leaders will likely precipitate national instability.
Development: On 1 February, Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, sent troops to arrest State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi prior to the inauguration of Myanmar’s newly elected government. The Tatmadaw immediately placed Naypyidaw under a state of emergency following the arrests. Many news outlets, including TV and radio broadcasts, phone services, and internet connections in major cities, became limited and faced several disruptions. The Tatmadaw announced military control for a year and the closure of all banks. Suu Kyi and the National League for Democratic party (NLD) won the election last year against the Union Solidarity and Development party, a major opposition group backed by the Tatmadaw. Military leaders claimed the election fraudulent after the NLD won by a landslide. After arresting Suu Kyi, the Tatmadaw transferred all authority to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. NLD released a statement by Suu Kyi shortly before her arrest, warning that military generals seek to place the country under dictatorship.
Analysis: Following the military takeover in Naypyidaw and arrest of democratic leader Suu Kyi, unrest between the opposition forces and the military will likely intensify. National instability will almost certainly grow due to large support among Myanmar’s population for the NLD. The Tatmadaw will likely try to avoid a pre-emptive military crackdown on potential protestors in order to add legitimacy to its takeover and gain public support. However, the shutdown of banks and capital combined with the level of support for the NLD will almost certainly exacerbate tensions. The increased risk of civil unrest may prompt a continuous harsh military crackdown, further destabilizing the country.
[Damon Reyes]
CHINA: Display of Military Strength Will Likely Increase Tensions with India
Summary: China’s display of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops and tanks at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between China and India, despite disengagement talks, likely indicates a desire to display Beijing’s power to New Delhi.
Development: On 1 February, China increased the number of tanks, troops, and trucks at the LAC. This follows the ninth round of disengagement talks that occurred on 24 January, where China negotiated for early disengagement at the LAC and a brawl between PLA troops and Indian troops broke out. Following these talks, India increased the number of troops at the LAC.
Analysis: China’s increase in troops and equipment at the LAC likely indicates its desire to deter Indian policy makers and war fighters. Beijing will almost certainly not disengage from the LAC despite the most recent round of talks and an increase in Indian troops in the area and will likely continue displays of military strength at the LAC to deter India. Beijing likely hopes to intimidate New Delhi through the increased show of force to gain more leverage in any future potential disengagement talks.
[Savannah Gallop]
EL SALVADOR: Leftwing Party Likely to Capitalize on Attack
Summary: An attack on members of a left-leaning political party weeks before a major election will likely prompt a major campaign to gain public support.
Development: On 31 January, attackers shot two supporters of the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) in San Salvador following a campaign rally for parliamentary elections scheduled for 28 February. The left leaning FMLN held power until the 2019 presidential elections, when Nayib Bukele of the centrist Gana party won. Bukele disavowed the attacks, despite accusations from FMLN members of inciting violence. The European Union, United Nations, and other groups also condemned the attack.
Analysis: FMLN will likely launch a propaganda campaign and increase public outreach in the weeks leading up to the 28 February election to capitalize on public sympathy. If support for the FMLN gains the party seats, tensions between Bukele and FMLN will likely rise, potentially cumulating in government gridlock.
[Alli McIntyre]
TAIWAN: Chinese Pressure May Prompt Military Conflict
Summary: Recent escalation of Beijing’s military activities within the Taiwan Strait has intensified China-Taiwan tensions and may soon lead to a military conflict.
Development: On 28 January, Chinese National Defense Ministry Director Wu Qian declared that to Taiwan, “independence means war” and claimed current Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) intrusions by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as necessary. Taiwanese Defense Minister Yen The-fa reported a count of over 480 PLA ADIZ incursions since the beginning of 2020. In addition to the escalating ADIZ intrusions, the Taiwan Coast Guard had expelled nearly 4,000 Chinese dredgers illegally looking for gravel in waters near land. Despite China’s current military pressure, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen continues to push for sovereignty through partnerships and alliances within the Indo-Pacific region.
Analysis: Beijing may exploit the PLA ADIZ intrusions to push Taiwan to war. If Taiwan takes no action against the escalating ADIZ intrusions, the PLA may push into the ADIZ to the extent of reaching Taiwan’s land. Taipei’s push to create partnerships and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region almost certainly threatens Beijing. In response, Beijing will almost certainly continue to increase its military actions.
[Clarisse Joy Absalon]
