RUSSIA: Arms Deal Discussion Will Likely Lead to Strong Military Ally in North Africa
Summary: Moscow and Algiers discussed plans for the purchase of military equipment from Moscow. This will likely enhance Algiers’s military capabilities and create a key partnership with Moscow.
Development: On 10 November, the Chief of Staff of the Algerian People’s National Army Saïd Chengriha met with Moscow’s Director of Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation Dmitry Shugayev in Algiers. The meeting included generals from Algiers’s Ministry of National Defense and the General Staff of the People’s National Army, according to TASS. Talks prior to the meeting between generals from Algiers voiced interest in submarines, Su-57 stealth aircraft, Su-34 bombers, and Su-30 fighters, according to The Arab Weekly. Algiers seeks to purchase up to $17 billion in arms supplies in December during President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s visit to Moscow, according to Asharq Al-Awsat. Algiers announced its intention to approve a 130 percent increase in its military budget by 2023, according to Atalyar. Algiers spent more than $9 billion in military expenditures, according to Trading Economics.
Analysis: The discussion between Moscow and Algiers will likely lead to the development of a strong military ally for Moscow in North Africa. Successful discussion and the enlarged budget will likely lead to the expensive $17 billion acquisition of military equipment from Moscow. The enlarged budget could sustain the maintenance of ships and aircraft if Algiers chooses to conduct regional exercises with Moscow. Sharing the same military equipment, Algiers and Moscow could effectively cooperate in a military deployment.
[Markus Weinzinger]
RUSSIA: Considerations Over Peace Talks Likely Increase as Kyiv Recaptures Territory
Summary: Moscow will likely consider peace talks with Kyiv following the regain of settlements by Ukrainian forces coupled with the possible retreat of The Russian Armed Forces from the city of Kherson.
Development: On 9 November, The Armed Forces of Ukraine advanced four miles towards the Russian-occupied city of Kherson, according to The Kyiv Independent. The mobilization began after Moscow showed signs of a possible retreat from Kherson in early November. During mobilization, troops reclaimed 12 settlements in southern Ukraine, according to Ukrinform. In his nightly address, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the total number of settlements liberated by The Armed Forces of Ukraine had reached 41 as of 10 November, according to Radio Free Europe. During an interview with CNN on 9 November, Zelensky stated that he remains open to negotiations with Moscow, according to The Kyiv Post.
Analysis: Moscow may contemplate peace negotiations as it seems likely to face extreme setbacks in the war effort following the loss of many settlements in southern Ukraine, as well as the potential loss of the city of Kherson, a strategic military location. Negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv could likely assist in ending the war.
[Nathaniel Pliskaner]
IRAN: Acquisition of Stinger Missile Likely to Increase Lethality of Shahed-136 Drones
Summary: Moscow traded millions of dollars and Western munitions in Ukraine probably as payment for more Iranian drones. Tehran likely wanted the delivery of munitions in the deal to improve its drone technology against Western defenses to increase lethality.
Development: On 9 November, Moscow flew $149 million, one British NLAW anti-tank missile, one JAVELIN anti-tank missile, and one Stinger anti-aircraft missile to Tehran. The seizure of the missiles occurred during Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Sky News. Tehran previously delivered more than 200 models of its HESA Shahed-136 loitering munition drones to Moscow, according to News Week. The ability of the drones to strike deep in enemy territory allowed Moscow to target both civilian and military targets across Ukraine, according to Sky News. Russian Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to create closer economic and security relations between both countries on the same day. The American-designed Stinger anti-aircraft missile system’s simplicity in operation and destructive capacity effectively neutralized Russian airpower during the initial stages of the invasion of Ukraine. The Muhjadeen used Stingers to counter Soviet air power during the Soviet-Afghan war to great effect, with over 275 aircraft downed.
Analysis: Tehran will likely reverse engineer the imported Stinger missile to improve the HESA Shahed-136’s resistance to Western anti-aircraft systems to provide their allies with a weapon capable of effectively impacting targets using Western defenses. Countries in the Middle East that deploy stinger missile systems widely will probably look to alternatives to counter Tehran’s growing drone capabilities and respond to the Stinger’s ineffectiveness against the HESA Shahed-136.
[Mason Meinzinger]
GUYANA: Opposition Will Likely Not Affect Constitutional Reform Process
Summary: The constitutional reform process will likely not contain much input from the opposition as tensions within the National Assembly escalate. The leading majority will likely possess almost full control over the new amendments to the nation’s core document.
Development: On 8 November, the National Assembly passed the Constitutional Reform Bill with the absence of all but one member of A Partnership for National Unity+ Alliance for Change (APNU+AFC), the leading opposition, according to international media reports. The bill allows a commission for reviewing the country’s supreme laws and will submit information through the Parliamentary Committee before the House can amend the Constitution of the Co-operative Republic of Guyana, according to Kaieteur News. Opposition leader Aubrey Norton led members of his party out of the chamber in response to Speaker of the National Assembly Manzoor Nadir rejecting Norton’s proposed motion in discussing another topic, according to The Guyana Times. The Peoples Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C), the leading majority, accused APNU+AFC of hypocrisy because of its support for constitutional reform since 2011, according to the Guyana Chronicle.
Analysis: With The PPP/C passing the Constitutional Reform Bill, APNU+AFC will likely not heavily influence future amendments to the Constitution. The Parliamentary Committee reviewing the current law will almost certainly consist of primarily PPP/C members. Norton’s walkout will likely result in further division between APNU+AFC and the constitutional reform process. The accusation of hypocrisy will likely not shift the opposition’s stance.
[Julian Romano]
CHINA: Potential Meeting May Address Canberra’s Training with the West
Summary: In the South China Sea (SCS), Canberra’s military training with the West might provoke Beijing to request Canberra to retract exercises.
Development: On 8 November, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese mentioned a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping would prove beneficial to mend disputes. Beijing and Canberra’s relationship continues to decline due to trade, national security, and human rights disputes, according to Aljazeera. Australia gained status as a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Enhanced Opportunities Partner in 2014. The partnership includes mutual interest in cyber security, NATO military training, and other security exercises, according to the Australian Embassy. Tokyo and Western nations recently concluded exercises in support of Royal Australian Navy forces in the SCS. The training allowed the nations to complete unified operations to increase the ability to maintain maritime security in the SCS.
Analysis: A meeting between Beijing and Canberra will probably induce a conversation about Canberra’s military in conjunction with the West in the SCS. Beijing’s relationship with Canberra possibly remains disrupted due to Canberra’s training with NATO partnerships maintaining maritime security in the SCS. The training escalation between the nations could give Beijing fear of instability in its security operations. Beijing probably views Canberra’s NATO partnership as preparation for adequate responses against Beijing. The meeting could cause President Jinping to request Canberra to decrease training and operations with NATO partners in the SCS.
RUSSIA: Increased Oil Exports and Currency Agreement Could Improve Economy
Summary: Moscow and New Delhi concluded that the oil trade agreement benefits both countries. Trade relations between the countries continue to strengthen and potentially aid the Russian economy through increased oil exports and decreased reliance on global currency.
Development: On 7 November, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergei Lavrov and Indian Minster of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met and discussed trade and currency settlements. On 8 November, Jaishankar announced that New Delhi would continue exporting oil from Moscow. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow increased its share of New Delhi oil imports by 23 percent from its previous two percent. Moscow and New Delhi seek to expand their trade due to the benefit it provides both countries. In July, New Delhi announced a new currency mechanism for promoting trade with economically sanctioned countries. In October, Moscow and New Delhi began discussing a rupee-ruble deal that would remove global currency dependencies from imports and exports between the two countries.
Analysis: The trade agreement between Moscow and New Delhi could cause an economic upturn in the Russian oil market, as Moscow replaces oil exports to Western nations with exports to New Delhi. Moscow could see an increase in oil profits as New Delhi imports more Russian oil. A currency agreement that removes global currency from the equation would likely increase the amount of profit Moscow makes on each export as it would decrease the effect of Western sanctions on Russian oil products. Economically, as New Delhi continues exporting oil, Moscow could see an improvement in the energy sector as well as other sectors if trade with New Delhi continues expanding.
[Katie Larson]
HAITI: Opening of Fuel Terminal Unlikely to End Economic Crisis
Summary: Haitian authorities regain control over Port-au-Prince’s main fuel terminal after mediated negotiations. Renewed access to fuel resources will likely not improve the economic devastation caused by recent decreases in exports and global exchange from the port.
Development: On 5 November, authorities in Port-au-Prince announced the removal of a two-month-long blockade by Jimmy Cherizier, the head of the powerful G9 federation of gangs. The G9 coalition represents over 12 gangs in Port-au-Prince. They have contributed to violence and the economic crisis within the country over the past few months. Dr. Harrison Ernest, a Haitian politician, acted as the primary communication link between Port-au-Prince and Cherizier. The restriction of fuel forced all gas stations to close and all shipments to cease. The lack of fuel distribution devastated the country which already suffered from crippling debt. Haiti continues to have one of the world’s poorest economies with severe inequality between urban and rural regions. Since 2021, Haiti has faced an expensive, country-wide recovery after devastating hurricanes and earthquakes. Insecurity within Port-au-Prince and unstable living conditions forced over 2.5 million citizens under the extreme poverty line.
Analysis: The opening of Port-au-Prince’s main fuel terminal will probably not pull the country out of the economic crisis. Port-au-Prince will likely need to crack down further on gang violence and rebuild infrastructure to improve current conditions. Much-needed funding from the United Nations and other humanitarian relief efforts cannot continue without the implementation of port security. A policy with a major aim to improve the financial situation seems unlikely, instead, the focus will almost certainly center on decreasing gang presence.
[Madeline Orges]
