RUSSIA: Summit with North Korea Will Likely Lead to Arms Deal
Summary: The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un will likely lead to an arms deal. The arms deal will most likely increase Pyongyang’s reconnaissance and missile capabilities while providing Moscow with munitions for the war in Ukraine.
Development: On 13 September, Kim traveled to Russia for a summit with Putin. Kim inspected a Russian aircraft plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Russian aircraft and missiles at an airbase in Artyom, and a Russian naval base in Vladivostok, according to Al Jazeera. Pyongyang recently attempted to develop military reconnaissance satellites, modify hypersonic missile capabilities, and increase its naval capabilities, like nuclear submarines. Moscow attempts to bolster its supply chain to replace its rapidly depleting supplies of artillery shells and rockets in Ukraine. International sanctions recently have stymied both countries. Still, both Moscow and Pyongyang vigorously condemn these sanctions and remain open to military action., This visit could also lead to Russia-North Korea joint military exercises, according to North Korea scholar Robert Carlin.
Analysis: The Moscow and Pyongyang meeting could indicate a military technology trade agreement targeted toward Western allies and military bases in the Indo-Pacific and Eastern Europe. Pyongyang would likely use hypersonic missiles, aircraft, and submarines to threaten Japan, South Korea, and US bases. Pyongyang and Moscow will likely attempt to broker a trade deal involving these military technologies. Pyongyang would most likely use reconnaissance satellites to monitor US, Japanese, and South Korean military activities, and communications, posing a considerable counterintelligence risk. Moscow would probably use any munitions received in a deal to supply its troops in the Russo-Ukraine war. If Moscow and Pyongyang initiate joint military exercises, then the risk of escalation towards the West and its allies in direct warfare would almost certainly increase.
[Christina Muchow]
SUDAN: Meeting with Kyiv Will Likely Increase Drone Strikes on Wagner Infrastructure
Summary: The encounter between Kyiv’s and Khartoum’s presidents will likely increase the frequency of drone strikes against infrastructure supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Wagner Group activity.
Development: On 23 September, Sudan President Abdel Fattah al-Burhan spoke with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an unplanned meeting at Shannon Airport in Ireland. The meeting discussed reported drone strikes on the RSF in Khartoum, according to Sudan Tribune. The strikes employed two different kinds of drones widely used by Kyiv in at least eight of the attacks, according to CNN. The leaders’ discussion highlighted activities of illegal armed groups financed by Moscow, according to Reuters. Wagner maintains relations with the RSF leader Hemedti, according to Deutsche Welle. Zelensky invited al-Burhan to support the Grain From Ukraine initiative, according to Irish Mirror. Khartoum increased wheat import requirements from $2.7 million to $3.5 million this year, according to Reuters.
Analysis: Khartoum will likely partner with Kyiv to combat the RSF and the Wagner Group through increased drone strikes. Kyiv’s proficiency in drone warfare with different platforms will likely enable precise and concentrated attacks. Khartoum’s fight against the RSF backed by Kyiv’s enemy, the Wagner Group, will likely align operations to target Wagner infrastructure in Sudan.
[Markus Weinzinger]
KOSOVO: Sebian Protestor Deaths Likely to Increase Chances of Renewed Conflict
Summary: Serbian protesters armed with lethal weaponry killed a Kosovan police officer responding to the protesters’ roadblock. The protesters retreated to a Serbian Orthodox monastery and battled police forces for hours. Tensions between Belgrade and Pristina may continue to rise as both governments place blame on each other.
Development: On 24 September, 30 Serbian protestors blocked a road in northern Kosovo. They protested the rule of Prime Minister Albin Kurti. The protestors opened fire with rifles and hand grenades on police responding to the blockade. As police overwhelmed the protesters’ position, they fell back to a nearby monastery. The protesters surrendered after a day-long shootout. Police killed three, injured six, and arrested the rest. Pristina labeled the attack an act of Serbian terrorism; however, Belgrade supported the actions of its people. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic apologized for the death of the officer but criticized the actions of Pristina’s police for killing Serbians. Belgrade does not recognize Pristina as an independent state.
Analysis: As both governments continue to criticize the actions of the other based on the outcomes of the protest, tensions seem likely to rise between the countries once again. Serbian citizens in Kosovo most likely will continue to protest Kurti as well as the killing of Serbians in Kosovo. Pristina will likely double down on efforts to dismantle Serbian militia groups in the country. Tensions will likely not defuse quickly, and further attacks both in Kosovo and Serbia may happen.
[Liam Black]
CHILE: Villarrica Volcano Likely to Erupt Within the Next Few Days
Summary: Experts in Chile have raised the Villarrica volcano alert level from yellow to orange, indicating that the active volcano will likely erupt within the next few days.
Development: On 24 September, Chile’s National Geology and Mining Service increased the alert level for the Villarrica volcano from yellow to orange, the second-highest alert level in a four-level system. Santiago constantly monitors the status of the volcano with imagery and military flyovers. Officials are evacuating 30 families that live within five miles of the crater of the stratovolcano, according to BBC. The eruption activity from the volcano also caused long-period earthquakes within the last monitoring period of 13 to 19 September for the Smithsonian Institution National Museum of Natural History Global Volcanism Program. The volcano last erupted in 2015, prompting evacuations and preventing any casualties.
Summary: The increasing activity from the Villarrica volcano indicates that it will probably erupt within the coming week. However, based on the evacuation success of the last eruption in 2015 and the proactive evacuations, an eruption of the Villarrica volcano will likely not cause significant casualties. Seismic activity will likely continue and may increase in severity as the volcano increases. An increase in activity will also likely prevent surveillance as safety concerns increase.
[Savannah Gallop]
