RUSSIA: Eurasian Economic Union Meeting Likely to Improve Energy Exports
Summary: The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) meeting will likely lead to increased economic cooperation within the EEU, decreasing the effectiveness of sanctions on Russia. Armenia will likely have less participation in this growth due to tensions between Moscow and Yerevan.
Development: On 2 February, the Prime Ministers of Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Belarus, and the Deputy Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan, held an EEU summit in Kazakhstan. At the meeting, Kazakh Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov called for developing a more robust transportation infrastructure to better facilitate trade, while Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko called for a more interconnected energy market. Moscow, Astana, and Bishkek export energy while Yerevan and Minsk import energy. Moscow currently faces sanctions on its gas and oil sectors that greatly affect its economy Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin indicated support for Armenia’s plan, despite high tensions between Armenia and Russia due to recent Yerevan attempts to reduce its security dependence on Moscow and Yerevan joining the International Criminal Court on 1 February, according to Aravot.
Analysis: Expanded EEU cooperation will likely occur through increased energy exports from Moscow to the other countries in the EEU and decreased restrictions on trade with Moscow. Astana and Bishkek may import increased quantities of Russian oil and gas to sell to other countries, especially other Central Asian countries. Moscow increasing its exports through Astana would reduce the decline of Moscow’s GDP, using the increase in funds to likely finance the Russia-Ukraine War. Moscow energy exports to Yerevan and Minsk will also likely increase. Despite high tensions with Moscow, Yerevan will probably not leave the EEU in the foreseeable future but will likely attempt to diversify its trade agreements by increasing trade with non-EEU European partners. Yerevan and Moscow will likely not expand the trade of other goods, such as the trade of manufacturing goods. Because trade between Yerevan and other EEU countries would almost certainly need to pass through Moscow and Georgia, reluctance to expand this trade relationship would likely result in Yerevan non-participation in other trade expansions. Astana will likely increase exports, especially iron, and other manufacturing materials to Moscow but will likely not export arms or other military goods to avoid secondary sanctions.
[Christina Muchow]
EL SALVADOR: Decreased Violence Likely to Continue Amid Presidential Re-Election
Summary: President Nayib Bukele announced his reelection, , which will likely continue trends of decreased violence and increased livability within the nation.
Development: On 4 February, thousands of San Salvador citizens cast votes for the 2024 Presidential Election. With only around 70% of the votes counted as of 5 February, the results point overwhelmingly in Bukele’s favor. In each of the 14 departments comprising the nation, each shows a majority victory for the young president. Plagued by decades of war and instability due to gang violence and corruption, San Salvador long held the rankings as one of the most dangerous countries in the world. Bukele rose to power as part of the Grand Alliance for National Unity party winning the 2019 Presidential Election, now the youngest head of state in Latin America. Bukele’s campaign promised an end to the divisions within San Salvador and since the election, instituted a war on gangs, and a zero-tolerance policy towards crime. Bukele’s popularity surged when he declared a state of national emergency on 22 March 2022, to address the nation’s instability caused by gang-related violence. Since then, anti-gang policies created new mega-prisons that aided in decreasing crime to historically low levels.
Analysis: With Bukele successfully winning another term as head of state, San Salvador will most likely witness another five years of change toward safety and livability due to the strict enforcement of anti-violence policies. With continued strong support, the next five years will likely bring greater foreign investment, tourism, and an increase in national GDP for the small Central American country.
[Dyanna Henriquez]
RUSSIA: Ecuadorian Arms Transfer Likely to Raise Diplomatic Tensions
Summary: Tensions will likely rise between Moscow and Quito due to the transferring of old Russian military equipment to the United States in exchange for $200 million in new military equipment and gear on behalf of Quito.
Development: On 3 February, Moscow announced its plans to ban Ecuadorian banana imports after Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa stated they would trade Russian-made military equipment to Washington in exchange for $200 million in new military gear, according to ABC News. Moscow protested the decision because it violated a contract saying Quito could not sell the equipment to third parties without Moscow’s consent, according to AP News. Over a fifth of Quito’s banana exports goes to Moscow, Ex-Ecuadorian diplomat Carlos Estarellas interpreted the ban as a retaliatory move, according to the Kyiv Independent.
Analysis: Diplomatic tensions between Moscow and Quito will likely rise due to Quito transferring old Russian military equipment to Washington in exchange for new equipment. Moscow’s perspective of Quito breaking the contract will likely influence Moscow to force Quito to face repercussions. Moscow will likely do this by banning products, similar to its bans on Quito’s banana exports, in an attempt to damage Quito’s economy.
[Amy Bodenhamer]
PHILIPPINES: Separatist Movements Will Likely Rise Over Constitutional Disputes
Summary: Former President Rodrigo Duterte will likely instigate a growing separatist protest to secede the southern region of the Philippines from the Manila government. The political unrest started after disagreements over amendments to the Philippines Constitution.
Development: On 4 February, reports stated the Manila announced its preparations to use authority against Duterte’s attempts to divide the nation. Duterte’s alliance with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr recently dissolved after disagreements surrounding the purpose of the constitutional amendment. Duterte accused Marcos of amending the constitution to remain in power, while Marcos argues it will ease foreign investments, according to The Guardian. Following the dispute, Duterte announced that the southern region would gain independence from the Manila, according to The Guardian. The recent call for secession could influence former separatist groups to reignite their fight for independence, while Manila urges citizens to reject secessionist ideals, according to Reuters.
Analysis: Opposing citizens will likely engage in political protests surrounding the dispute between Duterte and Marcos over the constitution’s amendment. Prior separatist groups will likely reengage and side with Duterte to gain political power for their cause. If former separatist groups side with Duterte, then violence surrounding the cause will likely form in efforts to separate the southern region from the archipelago.
[Lauren Estrada]
SENEGAL: Election Delay Will Most Likely Lead to Persistent Protests
Summary: Dakar’s decision to extend the presidential elections to December will likely lead to long-term protests because of reactionary restrictions on civil liberties and the election process.
Development: On 5 February, Dakar voted to postpone the presidential election until 15 December. The decision followed the incumbent President Mackey Sall’s announcement to delay the initial election date on 25 February due to the constitutional body’s alleged corrupted treatment of the disputed candidates list, according to AP News. The list of the top 20 candidates
excluded Senegalese Democratic Party candidate Karim Wade and the jailed Pastef candidate Ousmane Sonko, according to Reuters. Police forces responding to ensuing protests detained opposition candidate Aminata Toure and the campaign manager for Anta Babacar Ngom. During the protests, police attacked opposition candidate Daouda Ndiaye, according to Reuters. Dakar restricted mobile internet access and removed the broadcasting license for private Walfadjri company, according to local news, Le Soleil. France, members of the European Union, and members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) called for a quick and fair election date as President Sall reiterated that he would not run for a third term, according to France 24.
Analysis: Dakar’s election postponement will very likely lead to persistent protests through December. The harsh treatment of several opposition party members will likely promote public belief that President Sall removes political competition through violent means. The opposition parties will likely escalate retaliation to the delay through legal or political means. The shutdown of internet access and a private media channel will likely erode public assurance of a free press and protected citizen rights. The concern of Paris, the European Union, and ECOWAS will likely press Dakar to keep a form of the democratic election process intact despite its liberty-curbing measures.
[Markus Weinzinger]
