YEMEN: Houthis Missile Launch at Tel Aviv Will Likely Escalate Hostilities
Summary: In attempt to escalate hostilities, Houthi rebels launched a ballistic missile from Yemen at Tel Aviv.
Development: On 15 September, Houthi rebels launched a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv. The missile was shot down and landed in an open field outside the city. This attack follows a series of previous Houthi rebels’ strikes using drones and smaller explosive ordinances. Houthi leadership said more attacks will follow, according to NBC News. Israel Defense Force (IDF) leaders said Israel’s surface-to-air defense system, the Iron Dome, damaged the missile mid-air but did not destroy it, according to PBS. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, vowed vengeance against Houthi rebels for their hostilities.
Analysis: Houthi rebels are likely to continue this method of attack due to the success of the missile getting past the Iron Dome. With both sides promising to attack, it remains likely the conflict will escalate with each side trading long-range attacks via aerial capabilities. IDF will most likely continue airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. The apparent success of the hypersonic missile landing in Israeli territory, so close to Tel Aviv, will likely encourage the Houthis to replicate this attack on a larger scale.
[Melvin Harrell]
RUSSIA: Army Expansion Likely to Intensify Ongoing Offensives
Summary: Moscow will likely use its upcoming army expansion to intensify its operations in the Kursk region without reassigning troops from the Donetsk offensive.
Development: On 16 September, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian army to increase by 180,000 active troops. This would make it the second-largest army in the world, with 1.5 million active troops. Moscow announced that this is a volunteer-based expansion effort and stated that it has not planned any new mobilization efforts. The Russian military is conducting a counteroffensive in the Kursk region and has reclaimed 10 settlements, although the Ukrainian military continues to control approximately 500 square miles of Russian territory. The Russian military is also conducting an offensive in the Donetsk region. The Russian army captured the village of Nevelske and is approaching the cities of Kurakhove and Pokrovsk.
Analysis: Moscow will likely dedicate any new troops to its ongoing counteroffensive in the Kursk region, allowing it to regain its prestige in the eyes of its citizens. Moscow will likely regain control of Kursk, but this will likely not occur imminently. If Moscow achieves its target recruitment, it will likely dedicate some of the new troops to increasing the intensity of its offensive in the Donetsk region. However, Moscow will likely not achieve its recruitment goal using volunteers alone and will not be able to significantly increase the number of troops in Donetsk. Russian troops will likely continue to advance despite this limitation. Moscow will likely not initiate another round of mobilization while Russian troops continue to gain ground in Donetsk and regain control of Kursk. This would limit the success of both offensives but maintain internal stability.
[Christina Muchow]
YEMEN: Houthis Likely Launched Modified Iranian Hypersonic Missile at Israel
Summary: The Houthis likely launched a modified Iranian Fattah-1 hypersonic missile at Tel Aviv, incapable of maneuvers typical of a traditional hypersonic missile.
Development: On 16 September, the Israel Air Force (IAF) intercepted a Houthi missile, “Palestine 2,” targeted at Ben Gurion Airport in Tel-Aviv, 1,281 miles away from Sana’a. Tel Aviv launched several missiles to intercept the missile, with at least one missile damaging it, causing it to break apart in the air. The Houthi’s media unit released a video of the missile launch and its specifications. The Houthis claimed that they launched a two-stage hypersonic missile with a range of 1,335 miles, equipped with stealth technology, capable of traveling at Mach 16 speeds. Hypersonic missiles fly at a minimum of Mach 5 speeds and can maneuver or change targets mid-flight compared to traditional ballistic missiles. The IAF claims that the Houthis did not launch a hypersonic missile since the missile flew with a straight trajectory like a traditional missile.
Analysis: The Houthis likely launched a modified Iranian Fattah-1 hypersonic Medium Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) toward Ben Burion Airport before its interception. The Palestine 2’s missile booster looks visually identical to the Iranian Fattah-1 hypersonic and Khaibar Shekan MRBM with roughly 40-inch diameters and a range of 900 miles. The Palestine 2’s re-entry vehicle (RV), the missile warhead that detaches from the booster, looks visually different from the Khaibar Shekan’s warhead but identical to the Fattah-1. The Palestine 2 possesses aero diverters similar to the Fatah-1 and lacking on the Khaibar Shekan. The Palestine 2 possesses similar fins as the Fattah-1, but the attachment method looks different. The Fattah-1 can make maneuvers upon reentering the atmosphere that can shift the missile’s point of impact and potentially challenge missile defense systems. The Houthis likely launched the Palestine 2 with disabled maneuvering capabilities when reentering the atmosphere. Disabling the maneuverability capabilities almost certainly made the missile’s trajectory look identical to the trajectory of a traditional ballistic missile. The Houthis likely modified the Palestine 2 beyond the Fattah’s reported range of 900 miles to strike the Ben Gurion Airport 1,290 miles away.
[Sebastien Bragg]
