PANAMA: Investment Plan Likely Presents Opportunity for Fiscal Investment
Summary: Panama’s $350 million Mulino plan, following its Belt and Road exit, seeks new investors. Panama City likely favors the United States (U.S.) due to historic ties and recent diplomatic interest, especially in infrastructure and canal projects.
Development: On 21 February, according to Panama Perspective, Panama City announced the Mulino investment plan, allocating $350 million to both the nation’s capital and its interior. On 7 February, President José Raúl Mulino instructed diplomats at Panama’s embassy in Beijing to submit the required 90-day notice of withdrawal from China’s Belt and Road Initiative, according to My News. Mulino added on 21 February that funding for larger projects would require additional financial strategies, according to Panama Newsroom.
Analysis: Panama’s announcement of the Mulino economic investment plan likely stems from its need for new public infrastructure funding. With an almost certain withdrawal from China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Panama expects to seek new international investors. Given historical U.S. involvement in Panama’s infrastructure development, Panama City would likely be receptive to U.S. investment under the Mulino plan. Panama has yet to announce specific projects, but future infrastructure initiatives—potentially involving the Panama Canal—are likely, given Panama’s apparent openness to renewed U.S. engagement.
[Gavin Packard]
ISRAEL: Permanent Ceasefire with Hamas Remains Likely in Exchange for Hostages
Summary: A second-phase ceasefire may follow the return of the four hostages’ bodies. Jerusalem and Hamas would likely establish a more permanent ceasefire if they agree upon a second phase.
Development: On 20 February, Hamas released the bodies of four hostages, including a mother and her two children. Releasing these bodies marks an acceleration of the ceasefire deal, with only three hostages required to be released. The current phase of the ceasefire ends on 1 March, and without an agreement from Jerusalem and Palestine, the ceasefire will end. On 19 February, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appointed Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer to lead negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire. Hamas responded to this appointment by offering the release of all the remaining hostages if the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) pulled completely out of Gaza and allowed an increase of aid and infrastructure support into Palestinian borders, according to The Guardian.
Analysis: Hamas’s return of the four bodies likely points to the possibility of reaching an agreement before the end of the current ceasefire. Hamas leadership and Dermer will likely establish a long-term ceasefire in the region if talks succeed. Hamas will likely concur with many of Jerusalem’s demands due to their need for aid. Jerusalem will probably not agree to completely pull out of Gaza, but it may decrease IDF’s presence in the area while still monitoring Palestinian efforts.
[Leah Hayslett]
ISRAEL: Palestinian Terrorists Likely Responded to the Recent Attack on West Bank
Summary: Palestinian terrorists likely attempted a terrorist attack in Tel Aviv in response to a Jerusalem military campaign demolishing West Bank apartments.
Development: On 19 February, three buses in Israel exploded following a Jerusalem military campaign demolishing West Bank apartments, according to the New York Post. Jerusalem demolished a dozen apartment buildings, displacing thousands of Palestinians, according to CNN. The operation displaced some 40,000 Palestinians, according to the United Nations. An unexploded device in a bus carried the message, “Revenge for Tulkarem,” according to the BBC. “Revenge for Tulkarem” is a reference to the counter-terrorism operation going on in the West Bank, according to the BBC.
Analysis: Palestinian terrorists probably left the message on the unexploded device, and they likely attempted the attack as a response to Jerusalem’s military campaign. Tel Aviv and surrounding cities may experience similar events, reflecting Palestinian terrorists’ response to Jerusalem’s attacks in the West Bank.
[Andersen Keller]
