ISRAEL: Prisoner Negotiations with Hamas Unlikely to Succeed
Summary: Jerusalem’s prisoner transfer negotiations with Hamas are unlikely to succeed due to continued conflict during the ceasefire, along with Hamas’s poor treatment of prisoners and conflicting objectives.
Development: On 8 March, phase one of the ceasefire with Hamas ended. Jerusalem and Hamas signaled they are preparing to initiate phase two of negotiations. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office stated that Jerusalem will send a delegation to Doha on 10 March to advance ceasefire negotiations, according to The Irish Times. Hamas sent a delegation to Cairo to engage in peace talks with Egyptian mediators, according to Reuters. Protests occurred in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv two weeks before phase one of the negotiations ended, demanding that peace negotiations continue and for the return of all prisoners from Hamas, with former prisoners stating the abysmal conditions of imprisonment, according to AP news. Jerusalem cut off its electrical supply to Gaza, an escalation from having already cut off all supplies into Gaza earlier in the month to force Hamas to release the remaining prisoners before negotiations could continue. Jerusalem conducted air strikes in northern Gaza on the same day, according to CBS News.
Analysis: Prisoner transfer negotiations with Hamas are unlikely to succeed in returning all prisoners from Hamas. Military action will likely continue, resulting in a rising death toll on both sides despite the ceasefire. While both sides show significant war weariness and Israeli citizens show a strong desire to see all prisoners of Hamas returned, this will unlikely happen in the near future. Hamas’s leveraging of the prisoners to extend the ceasefire remains almost certain. Jerusalem will unlikely halt demands to return all hostages immediately. Jerusalem will unlikely free all prisoners from Hamas without a return to conflict.
[Zachery Cavin]
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: World Inattention Likely to Allow Proxy Operations in Sudan
Summary: In late 2024, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) stopped supplying the Sudanese militia Rapid Support Forces (RSF) with supplies. However, because the U.S. froze all foreign aid, the UAE may redirect blame onto the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and continue their operations. This allows the UAE to avoid intense international backlash while still funding the RSF and influencing the conflict.
Development: On 6 March, Sudan filed a case with the United Nations International Court of Justice (ICJ) claiming that the UAE was violating the genocide convention by providing weaponry to the RSF in their conflict with the SAF. The two factions began fighting on 15 April 2023, when tensions between the groups’ leaders erupted into a country-wide struggle for control. The death toll reached 24,000 in November 2024, and both sides have committed substantiated human rights violations. The UAE stopped providing weapons to the RSF after the U.S. threatened to halt weapons sales to the UAE if it continued. The UAE receives advanced weapons from the U.S. that have modernized its military, according to Citadel. The U.S. was also supplying humanitarian aid to the displaced peoples within the country. In February, the U.S. froze overseas aid. An undetermined time after this freeze took effect, the UAE began supplying the RSF with weaponry once more. The UAE received roughly $1 billion worth of gold and $31 million worth of food from Sudan in 2023, according to Trading Economics.
Analysis: The freezing of overseas aid likely plunged the already struggling country further into poverty and famine. At that time, the international community was almost certainly aware of the conflict and was attempting to help solve it. The UAE likely saw this as the U.S. ceasing to attend the conflict, and it restarted its supply operations to the RSF as international attention dwindled, framing the SAF outrage as a publicity stunt to hide their own human rights violations. This will likely allow the UAE to continue to use the RSF as a proxy in its bid for political influence in a country in which they have economic investments.
[Hunter Flanagan]
BRAZIL: Continued Fight for Climate Change Likely to Protect Vulnerable Groups
Summary: Brasilia will likely implement new climate change policies to protect vulnerable communities. Without these policies, climate change will likely expose groups that live in low-income areas to extreme weather conditions.
Development: On 6 March, Brazil’s Minister for Environment and Climate Marina Silva attended the World Sustainable Development Summit in New Delhi to emphasize the importance of collaboration for climate change, according to The Times of India. Silva encouraged all parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to continue to fund climate policies and fight against inequality, according to The Indian Express. In 2024, Brazil faced extreme temperatures and wildfires. These extreme events clearly showed the impact of climate change in Brazil, according to Climate Central. Agence Francaise de Developpement (AFD) is reinforcing policies to improve living conditions and address other inequalities in relation to climate change, according to the AFD.
Analysis: Brazilian climate change leaders will likely enforce climate change policies to protect at-risk communities. It remains unlikely that Brasilia will put climate change on the back burner. If new policies are put into place, groups that are at a socioeconomic disadvantage will not have to worry about extreme temperatures and fires within their area. These groups usually live in high-risk areas, where extreme weather events related to climate change could likely harm them greatly. With Brasilia actively working to lessen climate change, living conditions for these vulnerable groups will likely improve.
[Madison Turner]
MEXICO: Cartels Likely to Increase Chemical Body Disposal of Murder Victims
Summary: Cartels are likely to move away from incineration due to the increasing ability to perform forensics on incinerated bodies. They are likely to shift to chemical methods of body decomposition because of significant advantages over incineration.
Development: On 5 March, members of Warrior Searchers of Jalisco, a group dedicated to finding missing people, discovered a hidden crematorium on a ranch that the Jalisco New Generation Cartel allegedly controlled, according to The Express. They also report that Mexican police found over 200 pairs of shoes at the site. Mexican police have controlled the ranch since September 2024, according to The Latin Times. Cartels hid the three ovens underground, preventing their discovery during an initial inspection. Heat exposure still leaves discoverable remains, according to Newser. Experts can analyze bone fragments that remain after incineration, according to a study in Research and Reports in Forensic Medical Science. Researchers developed a new technique in 2024 that can extract DNA from heavily burnt remains, Binghamton University. Flesh and bones can completely dissolve in lye after a few hours, according to The Modern Rogue.
Analysis: Cartels will likely increase chemical body disposal due to increased effectiveness and lower detectability. Cartels will likely implement temporary illicit disposal sites to further mitigate traceability, as incineration would not allow for the same level of anonymity. Cartels will likely struggle to consistently achieve total decomposition due to factors like incorrect chemical selection and impatience for how long the chemical reaction takes.
[Anthony Rizza]
