SUDAN: Khartoum’s Recapture Could Likely Lead to a Momentum Shift
Summary: Government forces recaptured the Khartoum airport from a paramilitary group, which could likely lead to a momentum shift in the Sudanese Civil War.
Development: On 26 March, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recaptured the capital of Sudan, Khartoum, according to Al Jazeera. SAF chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan declared, “Khartoum is free” after the SAF recaptured Khartoum airport, according to Al Jazeera. This comes after the SAF recaptured the Presidential Palace on 21 March, according to the British Broadcasting Company. The SAF also gained control of the Central Bank and the headquarters of the national bank, according to The New York Times. Khartoum has been under the control of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since the civil war began in April of 2023, according to the British Broadcasting Company. The RSF still holds significant control over Western Sudan in the Darfur region, according to Al Jazeera. The RSF is currently laying siege to El Fasher, a famine-stricken city that the RSF does not control in Darfur, according to The New York Times. Amgad Eltayeb from Firka for Studies and Development in Cairo stated that dismantled RSF political institutions would indicate an end of the war, according to Al Jazeera.
Analysis: Government forces recapturing of Khartoum could likely lead to a momentum shift in the Sudanese Civil War. Now that the SAF controls its former capital, it can begin to re-centralize its forces and make a combined push into RSF-controlled territory. The victory served as a turning point where SAF forces could begin to dismantle RSF institutions in Khartoum and work their way to Darfur. The recapturing of critical buildings in Khartoum can also lead to the SAF rebuilding its institutions to have more resources to use. Since the RSF lost its most valuable city, its ability to reach the rest of Sudan has been greatly diminished, even with its control of the Darfur territory in Western Sudan. The current siege on El Fasher may also negatively impact the RSF, as they may lose their image by attacking a famine-stricken village.
[Riley Grant]
NORTH KOREA: Unmanned Aircraft Likely to Counter South Korean Defense Systems
Summary: Pyongyang’s new development, alongside other research in electronic warfare, likely indicates an ongoing attempt to gather intelligence on South Korea’s defense system to gain better leverage in a potential attack.
Development: On 26 March, Pyongyang unveiled its reconnaissance aircraft, which resembled similar South Korean Air Force developments. Pyongyang’s defense research project includes unmanned aerial technology and other connecting research on electronic warfare, according to the Korean Central News Agency. In 2021, Seoul announced the development of a multi-layered defense system to counter North Korean artillery threats, also known as the “Korean Iron Dome.” The defense system will primarily surround Seoul and intercept incoming artillery rounds, according to the Defense Post.
Analysis: Pyongyang likely focused on the development of its reconnaissance aircraft over other potential technologies in an attempt to gather information that could counter South Korea’s defense systems. South Korea’s development of its “Iron Dome” almost certainly poses a challenge to North Korea if it were to attempt an attack on Seoul. Pyongyang’s interlinked research in electronic warfare and defense strategies likely indicates its attempt to discover methods of intercepting Seoul’s defenses using electronic warfare. Developing an unmanned reconnaissance aircraft most likely puts Pyongyang at a strategic advantage, as it can use these aircraft to gather intelligence regarding Seoul’s defenses.
[Lauren Estrada]
RUSSIA: Military Exercises Likely Used as Diplomatic Tool
Summary: Moscow’s recent multinational military exercises are likely intended to shore up diplomatic relations with its allies rather than significantly increase military capabilities.
Development: On 19 March, the Pakistani and Russian navies held a bilateral exercise, Pakistani officials call Arabian Monsoon VI and Russian officials call PASSEX, in the North Arabian Sea. The Russian detachment included two corvettes, a class of small warships, and one oil tanker, while Islamabad sent a destroyer, an offshore patrol vessel, and a fast attack craft, as well as Pakistani Navy and fighter jets from the Pakistani Air Force-operated unmanned aerial vehicles. From 13 to 18 March, the Russian flotilla docked in Karachi, where the two sides held cross-ship visits, harbor drills, and discussions. This follows the Maritime Security Belt 2025 drills in the Gulf of Oman from 10-12 March. Those trilateral drills included the Russian, Iranian, and Chinese navies, as well as observers from Azerbaijan, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and South Africa; the same Russian vessels participated in both exercises. None of the participants and observers in Maritime Security Belt 2025 play significant roles in Moscow’s most acute military priority, the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Analysis: Moscow is likely using these military exercises to boost its diplomatic, rather than military, power. Furthermore, both sets of exercises had relatively little involvement from the Russian Pacific Fleet, especially when compared to other fleet drills, such as those held in January 2024, as one would expect from drills intended to significantly increase military capabilities. Moscow likely used Maritime Security Belt 2025 to signal that it would retain strong relations with Tehran, even if the changing geopolitical situation would reward reducing their ties. The subsequent engagement with Islamabad likely aimed to indicate that Moscow considers Islamabad a significant partner and area for future cooperation.
[Christina Muchow]
