BANGLADESH: Chinese Presence Likely Intended to Support Seizure of Northeast India
Summary: Bangladesh’s Interim Government Advisor’s recent request for Beijing to expand its economic presence in Bangladesh likely indicates Dhaka’s moving position to prepare a seizure of Northeast India.
Development: On 31 March, reports stated that Bangladesh’s Interim Government Advisor, Muhammad Yunus, asked Beijing to expand its businesses in the Mongla Port. Yunus further stated that Bangladesh landlocks Northeast India and that China can develop and market products in Bangladesh, according to NDTV World. China and Bangladesh surround Northeast India, with a narrow passage from the mainland to reach the region. China-Bangladesh relations strengthened in 2019 when Bangladesh joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), while India has yet to join the BRI. Since 2022, Bangladesh’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate decreased 2%, with a forecast of 5.1% for 2025, according to the Asian Development Bank.
Analysis: Dhaka’s request for Beijing to expand its businesses in Bangladesh likely signals a long-term strategy to position itself for a potential attempt to seize Northeast India with China’s assistance in the 2030s. While Yunus’s appeal for Chinese investment may stem from Bangladesh’s declining GDP and need for economic aid, it more likely indicates a strategic move to strengthen ties with Beijing in preparation for future actions. In agreeing to Yunus’s request, Beijing will highly likely expand not only its economic presence around Mongla Port but also its military presence. The geographical positioning of Bangladesh and China around Northeast India would almost certainly weaken India’s defensive capabilities in the region. However, given its declining GDP, Dhaka will unlikely attempt the seizure in the near future. Bangladesh’s participation in the BRI almost certainly further solidifies its alliance with Beijing, particularly giving leverage that India does not have with China. While Chinese economic investments may help improve Bangladesh’s GDP, it remains unlikely that either nation will pursue a seizure of Northeast India within the next five years, as Dhaka is not yet militarily or economically prepared.
[Lauren Estrada]
RUSSIA: Drone Crashes in Kazakhstan Likely Military Surveillance Drones
Summary: Since February 2025, four drones, most likely the Russian military’s Orlan-10 surveillance drones collecting on Kazakh critical infrastructure and the Russia-Kazakhstan border, have crashed in the West Kazakhstan region (WKO).
Development: On 26 March, Kazakh border patrol officers found debris from an unidentified drone in the Zhanibek district of the WKO. Kazakh citizens found similar crashes on 25 March, in the same district, and in the Taskala district on 18 March. On 18 February, residents found a drone in the Bokeyorda district. While Russian analysts claim that the drone was a French-made Crecerelle drone, Ukrainian analysts assert that it was a Russian-made Orlan-10 surveillance drone, which the Russian military has used extensively in Ukraine, Mali, and Syria.
Figure 1: Top to Bottom: Debris found on 18 FEB, Crecerelle Drone, Orlan-10 Drone
Analysis: These recent drones are most likely reconnaissance drones operated by the Russian military. The shape of the wing on the crashed drone, as well as the statements of the Ukrainian analysts, indicate that the drone is almost certainly an Orlan-10 rather than a Crecerelle. Based on their location and the few publicly released details, the other crashed drones are likely the same model. The Russian military is likely using the drone to surveil Kazakh critical infrastructure in the region, including nearby military facilities and energy infrastructure, and surveil the Russian border, considering Moscow’s recent attempts to fight illegal migration to Russia. The spate of recent crashes, apparently caused by technical failures rather than counter-drone defenses, may indicate that the Russian military is using drones past their expected lifespan or without proper maintenance. Due to supply shortages caused by the Russo-Ukrainian War, the Russian military likely lacks the parts needed to maintain or replace old, wearing-out drones; drones not in use on the front lines, such as those Moscow uses for surveillance in Kazakhstan, would almost certainly be a lower priority for repairs and preemptive replacement, explaining the extreme uptick in recent crashes in the same area. The Russian military may reduce their UAV presence over West Kazakhstan to avoid scrutiny and diplomatic tensions, especially as this trend gains an increasingly high international profile.
[Christina Muchow]
ISRAEL: Strikes, Spending Bill, and Judicial Reform Likely to Deepen Internal Divide
Summary: Protests and political unrest in Jerusalem likely represent a deepening political divide among Israelis. Likely attempting to garner Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attention, over 100,000 Israeli citizens gathered in Jerusalem to protest ongoing military offenses on Hezbollah and Hamas by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF). The Israeli parliament passed a bill expanding elected officials’ power to appoint judges, likely a bid to increase Netanyahu’s and the right-wing Likud Party’s influence.
Background: On 18 March, the IDF struck Gaza for the first time since the ceasefire began in January 2025 and declared the ceasefire “over”, according to NPR. Similarly, on 28 March, the IDF launched airstrikes on Beirut, Lebanon. These airstrikes are the first of their kind since a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Jerusalem went into effect in November 2024. Both these attacks sparked fears of unraveling ceasefires and a continuum of both wars among Israeli citizens, leading to numerous protests in Jerusalem directed at Netanyahu. Protestors also called for the removal of Netanyahu as Prime Minister and early elections, responding to a judicial reform bill parliament passed. The bill forces all judges’ appointments to pass through a committee that the Justice Minister, Yariv Levin, supervises. Levin, a right-wing politician Netanyahu selected, claims the bill restores balance in the judicial branch. Protestors gathered in Jerusalem claimed it directly attacks Israeli democracy.
Continued Military Offenses: IDF’s continued military strikes likely reflect the internal political unrest and divide within borders. Strikes targeting Gaza on 18 March in response to Hamas leadership disagreeing with demands to release the remaining Israeli hostages. Hamas leadership claims the IDF is targeting Hamas leaders serving mid-level roles, removing their ability to rearm quickly. Protestors in Jerusalem claim that Netanyahu is subjecting hostages to unknown fates by violating the ceasefire. Strikes in Lebanon respond to rockets fired at Israeli border towns from Lebanese territory. Jerusalem did not claim that Hezbollah launched the rockets, but when targeting Lebanon, they claimed they were looking to destroy a storage facility for Hezbollah-owned drones. Both instances of Jerusalem’s continued strikes likely signal their readiness for conflict and likely signal a deepening political divide among citizens causing unrest in Israeli communities.
Judicial Reform and Spending Bill: Thenew budget and judicial reform bills the Israeli Parliament passed are likely a bid to increase power for Netanyahu and his party. The Supreme Court has blocked multiple of Netanyahu’s requests, leading him to propose new spending bills that boost military spending and force only elected officials to appoint judges. These bills faced criticism from thousands of Israeli citizens, leading to protests in Jerusalem calling for early elections and to oust Netanyahu from office. The increasing protests probably signal a growing disconnect between Jerusalem’s leadership and citizens, effectively deepening the political divide already present in the Israeli political landscape.
Outlook and Implications: Jerusalem will likely face fiercer opposition from not only surrounding countries but its own citizens as well. The continuous firing into Gaza and Lebanon will likely also encourage retaliation from both countries. This retaliation could likely come in the form of withholding hostages or striking border towns. The growing opposition from Israeli citizens against Jerusalem also likely points to a weakening of Netanyahu’s rule and the citizens lessening trust placed in him.
[Leah Hayslett]
