PERU: Political Instability Likely to Deepen Despite State of Emergency
Summary: Despite Lima’s recent announcement of a 30=day state of emergency, crime rates will likely remain high. This will likely cause political instability in the country to deepen.
Development: On 22 October, Peruvian President Jose Jeri declared a 30-day state of emergency in Lima and Callao due to the cities’ crime rates, according to El Pais. Jeri came to power on 10 October, after the Peruvian Congress impeached his predecessor, former Peruvian President Dina Boluarte, and removed her from office due to the country’s high crime rate. On 15 October, thousands attended a protest calling for Jeri’s resignation, which resulted in one protestor’s death and over one hundred injuries, according to the Associated Press. In March 2025, Lima called for a similar state of emergency due to the crime rate, according to Peruvian government-owned news agency Andina.
Analysis: Lima’s planned state of emergency will very likely not significantly reduce crime or create political stability. This state of emergency will very likely fail to significantly lower crime rates, especially long-term crime rates, much as the March state of emergency failed to alleviate the crisis. If this occurs, Lima will likely remove Jeri from power will in the coming months, especially given his current unpopularity. This would almost certainly ensure continued political instability. These extended periods of political instability will likely prevent Lima from taking concrete steps against crime, further empowering criminal groups in Peru.
[Christina Muchow]
JAPAN: Prime Minister’s Military Vision Likely to Escalate Tensions in South China Sea
Summary: Sanae Takaichi became Japan’s prime minister on 21 October, vowing to expand the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) and take a more assertive stance on Taiwan. Her ideology will likely drive stronger Japanese presence in East Asia, raising tension with Beijing and reshaping regional dynamics.
Development: On 21 October, Tokyo’s National Diet elected conservative leader Sanae Takaichi of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as prime minister, marking Japan’s first female premiership. In her inaugural remarks, Takaichi emphasized strengthening national defense and reaffirmed the U.S.-Japan alliance as central to countering regional threats. Takaichi’s established positions include revising Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan to explicitly recognize the JSDF and expand the organization’s operational scope, advocating Japan-U.S. collective defense coordination, and elevating Taiwan as a core security interest. In April, she visited Taipei and reiterated that “a Taiwan emergency is a Japan emergency.” Taipei welcomed her election and called for deeper cooperation, while Beijing warned Tokyo against confrontational policies that could destabilize the region.
Analysis: Takaichi’s inauguration will likely intensify pressure on Beijing by accelerating Tokyo’s defense modernization and expanding security cooperation with regional partners. The strategy will likely deter coercion but heightens the risk of confrontation regarding Taiwan and disputed maritime zones. Tokyo will likely prioritize investments in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, logistics, and defense export reforms to enhance flexibility, while deeper multilateral planning will bind Japan more closely to cross-Strait issues. Beijing will likely counter with expanded gray-zone operations and military signaling. Overall, Japan’s more assertive posture will likely reshape East Asia’s security balance, amplifying risk of escalation.
[Armaan Needles]
INDONESIA-VIETNAM: AI Driven Cyberattacks Likely to Challenge Cyber Defenses
Summary: AI-enabled cyberattacks targeting Indonesia and Vietnam will likely continue to rise, overwhelming limited defenses and exposing coordination gaps. Expanding use of phishing, malware, and deepfakes will likely erode public trust and strain the governments.
Development: On 7 October 2025, organizations in Indonesia and Vietnam experienced nearly twice the global average of weekly cyberattacks, about 3,513 incidents, according to TechGoondu. Officials in both countries attributed the surge to AI-based phishing, ransomware, and automated intrusion tools. Vietnamese authorities noted that adaptive malware repeatedly targeted public and private networks to evade detection. Indonesian agencies similarly reported the spread of AI-generated deepfake videos impersonating public officials to influence political narratives and undermine government credibility. Experts warned that synthetic media sophistication is advancing faster than most detection technologies, according to The Straits Times.
Analysis: AI-driven cyber operations will likely remain a critical threat as both states expand digital economies without proportional cybersecurity investment. Reliance on cloud systems and social media almost certainly increases exposure to synthetic manipulation and data breaches. Indonesia’s large population and active online discourse likely make it vulnerable to disinformation, while Vietnam’s state-controlled information space very likely faces ransomware and espionage risks. Limited funding, inconsistent regulations and a shortage of skilled analysts will almost certainly slow detection and response. Both governments will likely pursue closer cooperation under Association of Southeast Asian Nations frameworks and expand partnerships with Japan and Australia to strengthen AI defense and intelligence sharing. However, without accelerated investment in digital forensics and public awareness, AI-enabled attacks will likely continue to degrade institutional credibility and regional cyber resilience.
[Garrett Williams]
