Ethiopia: Closure of Eritrean Refugee Camps Likely to Escalate Humanitarian Crisis
Summary: The closure of two Eritrean refugee camps in the Tigray region due to gender-based violence will likely lead to more unrest and violence in the region, further fueling the ongoing humanitarian crisis.
Development: On 11 February, Minister for Women, Children and Youth Filsan Abdullahi reported the rapes of more than 100 women in the largely remote northern Tigray region. Two refugee camps in northern Tigray region closed, relocating their Eritrean residents. The United Nations’ refugee agency (UNHCR) called for protection for the residents of the Shimelba and Hitsats camps following attacks and refugee abductions. The Ethiopian Red Cross stated 80 percent of the region remains cut off from humanitarian assistance and tens of thousands of people could starve to death.
Analysis: Ongoing conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region will likely lead to more gender-based violence in the region. This will almost certainly cause the UNHCR to deem more of the refugee camps in the Tigray region as unsafe, likely prompting the relocation of refugees further into Ethiopia. Severe hunger caused by increased food shortages will likely lead to more deaths unless the Ethiopian government can expand support into Tigray.
[August Kather]
TAIWAN: International Support May Strengthen Independence Movement
Summary: China-Taiwan tensions continue to escalate while Taiwan receives international support, strengthening Taipei’s diplomatic and economic stance.
Development: On 13 February, the Diary of the Azores, known as the largest newspaper in one of Portugal’s autonomous regions, commended Taiwan for its success in governing and prevention of the pandemic. Taiwan Representative Chang Chun-fei anticipated an increase of Taiwan-Portugal economic cooperation and overall stronger relations. Additionally, Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Malcolm Davis acknowledged Taiwan’s current state regarding China’s military impact and argued for Australia’s involvement. On 14 February, global finance expert Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala officially took the role as the World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General. In the past, China consistently deterred many countries from entering a bilateral or multilateral free-trade agreement with Taiwan. Prior to her appointment, WTO director-general Okonjo-Iweala established good relations with Taiwan, promising the country fair treatment in exchange for support.
Analysis: While Taiwan receives more international attention, declaration of alliances may likely soon emerge in prospects of a China-Taiwan war. For China, a heavily trade-dependent country, Taiwanese involvement with the WTO can pose an economic risk. However, with the support of Okonjo-Iweala, Taiwan may strengthen its economy and establish new relationships, solidifying support for its independence. In response, China may attempt to prevent Taiwan’s interactions with other countries through increased military aggression, which would likely trigger increased conflict in the region.
[Clarisse Joy Absalon]
FRANCE: Anti-Separatism Law Likely to Increase Tensions
Summary: A proposed Anti-Separatism law will probably cause further discrimination of France’s Muslim minority, likely leading to increased tensions between the Muslim minority and French majority.
Development: On 16 February, the French National Assembly passed the “Anti-Separation” bill in hopes of combating Islamic extremism following terrorist attacks last year. If passed in the senate, this law would extend the rule of civil servant religious neutrality to a number of privately run public services like taxis and bus drivers, banning employees from displaying religious beliefs publicly. This law also seeks to limit religious organizations from receiving foreign funds and will hamper the ability of citizens to homeschool their children. Although the bill does not name a specific religion, many believe the bill targets Muslims.
Analysis: If this law passes in the senate, it will likely anger the Muslim community and raise tensions between the Muslim minority and the ethnic French majority. The potential passing of the bill may prompt retaliatory attacks from extremist groups who view the bill as discriminatory. If extremist groups take retaliatory action, the Muslim community will likely face increased discrimination. The passage of the bill may damage Paris’s relationship with countries that have a Muslim majority, which could hurt Paris’s trade and infrastructure agreements and damage its economy.
[Ethan Theobald]
CHINA: Disengagement Efforts Indicate Future Cooperation with New Delhi
Summary: Beijing will likely remain cooperative with New Delhi to ensure further success of the disengagement at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Development: On 15 February, Beijing engaged in disengagement talks with New Delhi in Pangong Tso. The countries agreed to leave occupied areas. Beijing removed over 200 armored vehicles and temporary shelters. Both countries continue meet daily to ensure the success of disengagement. The two countries expressed the desire of complete disengagement within a week of pulling back forces.
Analysis: Beijing’s immediate and powerful action likely indicates a strong desire to leave the LAC area despite past aggression. Both sides appear to display equal willingness to cooperate, potentially taking steps towards reducing tensions between the two countries. This willingness to negotiate indicates a low probability of reengagement and may point to future collaboration. The success in disengagement talks may clear the way for future talks about the LAC, the future of which remains unclear.
[Savannah Gallop]
HAITI: Protests Almost Certain to Continue as Government Faces Opposition
Summary: The contested end date of Haitian President Jovenel Moise’s term will almost certainly continue to prompt protests and lead to a rise in tensions.
Development: On 14 February, protests erupted across Haiti calling for Moise’s resignation. Moise came into power in 2015 following former president Michel Martelly’s resignation. However, Moise claims he did not officially come into power since allegations of electoral fraud prompted the annulment of the 2015 election results and a new election. Moise won this election and claims that his five-year term started on 7 February 2017 and will end on 7 February 2022 and pledged to step down then. Opposition forces believe Moise’s term began when he initially took office and his term ended on 7 February 2021. Government officials claim a coup attempt occurred on 7 February, resulting in the arrest of 23 individuals. Opposition forces accuse Moise’s administration of corruption and cite fears of a constitutional overhaul in favor of Moise.
Analysis: Protests will almost certainly continue, further destabilizing the country. Clashes between opposition groups and those loyal to Moise and his administration may become violent while tensions rise. To prevent any further loss of support and reputation, Moise may speed up proceedings for the next election cycle while still remaining in office. Moise may also seek to reach a compromise with opposition groups in an attempt to quell additional protests. Opposition groups will almost certainly continue to call for Moise to step down, which Moise remains unlikely to do. If Moise proceeds with constitutional changes, opposition groups may attempt to force Moise out of office while further destabilizing Haiti.
[Alli McIntyre]
