Download SPAIN: Drug Tunnel Discovery Likely Reflects Transnational Criminal Networks Summary: The 31 March seizure of more than 37,000 pounds of hashish and $1.6 million in cash in a tunnel linking Morocco and Ceuta likely reflects increasingly integrated transnational criminal networks facilitating narcotics trafficking into the European Union. Development: On 31 March, Spanish authorities discovered … Continue reading Eagle Eye 495
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Eagle Eye 494
Download LEBANON: Israeli Operations Likely Strengthening Hezbollah’s Domestic Legitimacy Summary: Israeli strikes and potential expansion of operations in southern Lebanon are likely strengthening Hezbollah’s domestic legitimacy despite Beirut’s efforts to weaken the group. Development: On 2 March, Israeli forces began a renewed campaign of airstrikes and ground operations in southern Lebanon, killing at least 1,072 … Continue reading Eagle Eye 494
Eagle Eye 493
Download KOSOVO: Political Deadlock Likely to Persist Amid Parliament’s Dissolution Summary: Pristina’s political deadlock will likely persist following the parliament’s failure to elect a new president and the current president’s attempt to dissolve parliament, which is likely leading to the third round of elections since February 2025. Development: On 6 March, Kosovan President Vjosa Osmani … Continue reading Eagle Eye 493
Eagle Eye 492
Download SOUTH SUDAN: Almost Certainly Returning to Civil War Amid Political Instability Summary: Rising political instability, violence, and economic hardship in South Sudan will almost certainly lead to a return to civil war. Development: From 20 to 27 February, security forces arrested at least five formerly high-ranking government officials connected to the South Sudanese financial … Continue reading Eagle Eye 492
Eagle Eye 491
Download RUSSIA: Foreign Recruitment for War Effort Likely Due to Growing Desperation Summary: Moscow has recruited and coerced third-country nationals to fight in Ukraine. This almost certainly reveals a growing desperation in the face of mounting casualties, inability to achieve military objectives, and potential domestic upheaval. Background: From February 2022 to January 2026, the Russian … Continue reading Eagle Eye 491
Eagle Eye 490
Download SERBIA: Natural Gas Balancing Likely to Avoid Sanctions Without Harming Relations Summary: Belgrade’s mixed actions and statements regarding its future natural gas imports likely reflect a desire to avoid significantly worsening its relations with Brussels, and thus new sanctions, while maintaining its positive relations with Moscow. Development: On 10 February, CEO of Serbian state-owned … Continue reading Eagle Eye 490
Eagle Eye 489
Download RUSSIA: European Union Secondary Sanctions Likely to Reduce Oil Evasion Summary: Expanded European Union (EU) secondary sanctions will likely reduce Russia’s ability to evade energy restrictions. In turn, this would probably increase Moscow’s reliance on narrower trade partnerships and less transparent logistics networks. Development: On 9 February, the EU proposed a new sanctions package targeting third-country ports and commercial … Continue reading Eagle Eye 489
Eagle Eye 488
Download IRAN: Nuclear Talks Likely First Step Towards Easing Tensions Summary: If the nuclear disarmament negotiations with Tehran in Istanbul succeed, it will likely accelerate efforts to de-escalate regional tensions. Background: On 2 February, Tehran agreed to enter diplomatic talks in Istanbul alongside other regional powers over the nuclear disarmament of the Iranian armed forces. … Continue reading Eagle Eye 488
Eagle Eye 487
Download RUSSIA: Cloud-Based Phishing Campaign Likely to Increase Malware’s Resilience Summary: A newly identified phishing campaign targeting Russian users will likely increase cybercriminal resilience by abusing legitimate cloud services to distribute Amnesia RAT and ransomware. Development: On 24 January, cybersecurity researchers identified a multi-stage phishing campaign targeting users in Russia that delivers a remote access … Continue reading Eagle Eye 487
Eagle Eye 486
Download SYRIA: Escape of Islamic State Fighters Unlikely to Alter Ceasefire and Integration Summary: The Kurdish Coalition known as the Syrian Democratic Force (SDF) is likely responsible for the release of Islamic State (IS) fighters from several Syrian detention facilities on 19 January. The prisoners’ escape is unlikely to affect the current ceasefire agreement. Development: … Continue reading Eagle Eye 486