Download ARMENIA: Ceasing Participation in Treaty Organization Likely Part of Broader Shift Summary: Yerevan’s announcement that Armenia froze its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will likely prompt further distancing from Russia, a full withdrawal from the CSTO, and deeper ties with France. Development: On 23 February, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced … Continue reading Eagle Eye 449
Eagle Eye 448
Download NIGER: Regional Energy Dominance Likely with Cooperation with Sahel Nations Summary: Niamey’s energy meeting with the other nations from Sahel stated will likely make Niamey a dominant regional energy supplier. Development: On 17 February, energy ministers from Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, and Togo discussed diesel supply plans for Niamey. ECOWAS-imposed sanctions disrupted electricity … Continue reading Eagle Eye 448
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EE-362Download NORTHEAST AFRICA: Dam Construction May Shift Power in Nile River Basin Summary: Ethiopia may surpass Egypt as the regional hegemon upon completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo and Khartoum will almost certainly continue to oppose the GERD because of water shortage anxieties and mounting fears of a rising Ethiopian power. Beijing’s … Continue reading Eagle Eye 362
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EE-361Download LEBANON: Reform Delays May Deteriorate Governance, Enable Hezbollah Summary: Delays in reforming and reinstating the Lebanese government will almost certainly undermine governance and may facilitate Hezbollah’s pursuits of domestic political control. Unrest continues as Lebanon struggles to recover from the Beirut explosion, cabinet resignation, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The international community seeks to aid … Continue reading Eagle Eye 361
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EE-358Download ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN: Border Clashes May Add to Economic Strife, Ethnic Tensions Summary: Ankara and European governments will probably cultivate influence in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as it endangers the South Caucasus Pipeline System. Continued violence along the Line of Contact (LOC) in the Nagorno-Karabakh region will probably stir ethnic tensions in Armenia and Azerbaijan. The conflict … Continue reading Eagle Eye 358