download SPAIN: Drug Tunnel Discovery Likely Reflects Transnational Criminal Networks Summary: The 31 March seizure of more than 37,000 pounds of hashish and $1.6 million in cash in a tunnel linking Morocco and Ceuta likely reflects increasingly integrated transnational criminal networks facilitating narcotics trafficking into the European Union. Development: On 31 March, Spanish authorities discovered … Continue reading Eagle Eye 495
Eagle Eye 494
download LEBANON: Israeli Operations Likely Strengthening Hezbollah’s Domestic Legitimacy Summary: Israeli strikes and potential expansion of operations in southern Lebanon are likely strengthening Hezbollah’s domestic legitimacy despite Beirut’s efforts to weaken the group. Development: On 2 March, Israeli forces began a renewed campaign of airstrikes and ground operations in southern Lebanon, killing at least 1,072 … Continue reading Eagle Eye 494
Eagle Eye 493
download KOSOVO: Political Deadlock Likely to Persist Amid Parliament’s Dissolution Summary: Pristina’s political deadlock will likely persist following the parliament’s failure to elect a new president and the current president’s attempt to dissolve parliament, which is likely leading to the third round of elections since February 2025. Development: On 6 March, Kosovan President Vjosa Osmani … Continue reading Eagle Eye 493
Eagle Eye 492
Download SOUTH SUDAN: Almost Certainly Returning to Civil War Amid Political Instability Summary: Rising political instability, violence, and economic hardship in South Sudan will almost certainly lead to a return to civil war. Development: From 20 to 27 February, security forces arrested at least five formerly high-ranking government officials connected to the South Sudanese financial … Continue reading Eagle Eye 492
Eagle Eye 490
Download SERBIA: Natural Gas Balancing Likely to Avoid Sanctions Without Harming Relations Summary: Belgrade’s mixed actions and statements regarding its future natural gas imports likely reflect a desire to avoid significantly worsening its relations with Brussels, and thus new sanctions, while maintaining its positive relations with Moscow. Development: On 10 February, CEO of Serbian state-owned … Continue reading Eagle Eye 490
Eagle Eye 485 – Fall 2025 Special Edition
Download CHINA: Non-Military Actions Likely Intended to Increase Positive Perception of Country Summary: Recent anti-China rhetoric in the Pacific, Beijing’s non-military responses, and its diplomatic missions worldwide likely suggest that Beijing is seeking to project an image of a peaceful country globally through diplomatic efforts. This likely represents Beijing’s attempt to counter its national image … Continue reading Eagle Eye 485 – Fall 2025 Special Edition
Eagle Eye 483
DOWNLOAD MALI: Fuel Blockade Almost Certain to Intensify, Allowing Jihadists to Increase Control Summary: Al-Qaeda-aligned terrorist group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) will almost certainly intensify its ongoing blockage of Bamako and other Malian cities. This will likely lead to the ruling junta’s destabilization and expanded JNIM territorial and governmental control. Development: On 10 November, … Continue reading Eagle Eye 483
Eagle Eye 481
Download MALAYSIA: Summit Likely to Aid in Deescalating South China Sea Maritime Incidents Summary: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders meeting in Kuala Lumpur on 26-28 October will likely not eliminate periodic maritime incidents in the South China Sea but will likely aid in de-escalating these incidents. Development: On 27 October, Malaysian Prime … Continue reading Eagle Eye 481
Eagle Eye 479
Download RUSSIA: Statement on Azerbaijan Jet Crash Likely Caused by Need for Strong Relations Summary: President Vladimir Putin’s admission of involvement in the Azerbaijani jet crash last year likely reveals Moscow’s growing need for stronger relations with the few countries in its grasp. This acknowledgement will probably result in renewed relations between the two former Soviet … Continue reading Eagle Eye 479
Eagle Eye 478
DOWNLOAD MOLDOVA: Russian Pressure Very Likely to Intensify Following Election Results Summary: Moldova’s pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) gained Parliament seats in the 28 September elections, likely strengthening President Maia Sandu’s European Union (EU) integration plan. This victory will very likely increase Russian pressure on the country. Development: On 28 September, Moldovan voters gave … Continue reading Eagle Eye 478