DOWNLOAD CHINA: Coast Guard Operations Likely An Effort to Expand Territorial Control Summary: China will likely continue using the China Coast Guard (CCG) to assert control over disputed territory following multiple involvements with Manila and operations near Taiwan. Development: On 8 October, a CCG vessel 5306 fired a water cannon while shadowing the Philippine Coast … Continue reading Eagle Eye 505
Eagle Eye 504
DOWNLOAD RUSSIA: Leveraging Taliban Relations Likely to Secure Access to Asian Oil Markets Summary: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov likely initiated formal cooperation with the Taliban to leverage relations and secure access to Asian oil markets. Strengthening trade agreements between Moscow and Kabul will almost certainly expand Russian access to Asia. Development: On5October, Moscow convened … Continue reading Eagle Eye 504
Eagle Eye 502
download CHINA: Naval Operations Likely to Fracture Provisional Agreement Amid Rising Tension Summary: People’s Liberation Army (PLA), People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), and China Coast Guard (CCG) assets increased operations within Second Thomas Shoal, which will likely increase tensions with Manila and Taipei. Development: On 24 September, PLAN warships and CCG cutters blocked a Philippine … Continue reading Eagle Eye 502
Eagle Eye 495
Download SPAIN: Drug Tunnel Discovery Likely Reflects Transnational Criminal Networks Summary: The 31 March seizure of more than 37,000 pounds of hashish and $1.6 million in cash in a tunnel linking Morocco and Ceuta likely reflects increasingly integrated transnational criminal networks facilitating narcotics trafficking into the European Union. Development: On 31 March, Spanish authorities discovered … Continue reading Eagle Eye 495
Eagle Eye 494
Download LEBANON: Israeli Operations Likely Strengthening Hezbollah’s Domestic Legitimacy Summary: Israeli strikes and potential expansion of operations in southern Lebanon are likely strengthening Hezbollah’s domestic legitimacy despite Beirut’s efforts to weaken the group. Development: On 2 March, Israeli forces began a renewed campaign of airstrikes and ground operations in southern Lebanon, killing at least 1,072 … Continue reading Eagle Eye 494
Eagle Eye 493
Download KOSOVO: Political Deadlock Likely to Persist Amid Parliament’s Dissolution Summary: Pristina’s political deadlock will likely persist following the parliament’s failure to elect a new president and the current president’s attempt to dissolve parliament, which is likely leading to the third round of elections since February 2025. Development: On 6 March, Kosovan President Vjosa Osmani … Continue reading Eagle Eye 493
Eagle Eye 492
Download SOUTH SUDAN: Almost Certainly Returning to Civil War Amid Political Instability Summary: Rising political instability, violence, and economic hardship in South Sudan will almost certainly lead to a return to civil war. Development: From 20 to 27 February, security forces arrested at least five formerly high-ranking government officials connected to the South Sudanese financial … Continue reading Eagle Eye 492
Eagle Eye 490
Download SERBIA: Natural Gas Balancing Likely to Avoid Sanctions Without Harming Relations Summary: Belgrade’s mixed actions and statements regarding its future natural gas imports likely reflect a desire to avoid significantly worsening its relations with Brussels, and thus new sanctions, while maintaining its positive relations with Moscow. Development: On 10 February, CEO of Serbian state-owned … Continue reading Eagle Eye 490
Eagle Eye 485 – Fall 2025 Special Edition
Download CHINA: Non-Military Actions Likely Intended to Increase Positive Perception of Country Summary: Recent anti-China rhetoric in the Pacific, Beijing’s non-military responses, and its diplomatic missions worldwide likely suggest that Beijing is seeking to project an image of a peaceful country globally through diplomatic efforts. This likely represents Beijing’s attempt to counter its national image … Continue reading Eagle Eye 485 – Fall 2025 Special Edition
Eagle Eye 483
Download MALI: Fuel Blockade Almost Certain to Intensify, Allowing Jihadists to Increase Control Summary: Al-Qaeda-aligned terrorist group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) will almost certainly intensify its ongoing blockage of Bamako and other Malian cities. This will likely lead to the ruling junta’s destabilization and expanded JNIM territorial and governmental control. Development: On 10 November, … Continue reading Eagle Eye 483