Download CHINA: Hong Kong 47 Trial Will Most Likely Have Great Impact on Future Democracy Summary: The first round of trials for Hong Kong political activists will most likely damage the island’s democratic integrity. Development: On 6 February, the first trials began for 16 of the 47 Hong Kong political activists accused of subversion. The … Continue reading Eagle Eye 422
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DOWNLOAD AFGHANISTAN: Increasing Child Labor Likely to Receive Backlash from United Nations Summary: A recent study found that close to one million children may be working in Afghanistan to support their families. This likely will prompt backlash from the United Nations (UN), which remains in the process of sending humanitarian aid to the country. Development: … Continue reading Eagle Eye 399
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DOWNLOAD INDIA: Tensions on Three Fronts May Increase Effort to Improve Relations with Beijing Summary: Border tensions with Beijing on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), violence in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), and tensions in the northeastern region may prompt New Delhi to increase its efforts in improving border relations with Beijing. Background: On 15 … Continue reading Eagle Eye 395
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DOWNLOAD INDIA: Failed Peace Talks with Beijing Will Probably Only Lead to Border Skirmishes Summary: New Delhi and Beijing’s failed attempt to reach an agreement on disengagement goals regarding the Line of Actual Control (LAC) at the recent peace talks will likely not escalate conflict levels. Development: On 10 October, New Delhi and Beijing … Continue reading Eagle Eye 388
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DOWNLOAD INDIA: Troop Repositioning May Strengthen Position in Peace Talks with Beijing Summary: New Delhi’s repositioning of troops on the Ladakh border will most likely place the country in a better negotiating position during this month’s peace talks with Beijing. Development: On 5 October, New Delhi shifted 50,000 troops from the Pakistani border to the … Continue reading Eagle Eye 387
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DOWNLOAD CANADA: Snap Elections Likely Detrimental to Reputation of Administration Summary: Despite Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s projected retention of power, the inability of his party to gain a parliamentary majority and the unpopularity of the snap elections will almost certainly prove detrimental to the remainder of his time in office. Development: On 21 September, preliminary … Continue reading Eagle Eye 385
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DOWNLOAD SUDAN: Tensions with Ethiopia Likely to Escalate over Grand Renaissance Dam Summary: Tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia will likely increase as talks regarding the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (GRD) break down. Development: On 6 February, Sudan’s Irrigation Minister Yasser Abbas warned Addis Ababa that any step to fill the GRD, located on the Blue … Continue reading EE 372
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EE-369Download MOZAMBIQUE: Escalating Insurgency Poses Threat to Long-Term Security and Stability Summary: The Ahlu-Sunnah wa-Jama (ASWJ) will almost certainly continue to escalate its insurgency as it gains legitimacy through a nominal partnership with the Islamic State affiliates, destabilizing the northern provinces of Mozambique. Government security forces will probably maintain the current military-focused counterinsurgency strategy, which … Continue reading Eagle Eye 369
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EE-363-1Download TAIWAN: Chinese Militarization Will Almost Certainly Raise Tensions, Prompt Conflict Summary: Due to its militarization, a growing independence movement, and likely increase in support from regional allies, China will probably view Taiwan as a growing issue and take diplomatic or military action to quell dissent. Longstanding Tensions: Beijing strongly maintains the “One China Principle,” … Continue reading Eagle Eye 363
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EE-362Download NORTHEAST AFRICA: Dam Construction May Shift Power in Nile River Basin Summary: Ethiopia may surpass Egypt as the regional hegemon upon completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo and Khartoum will almost certainly continue to oppose the GERD because of water shortage anxieties and mounting fears of a rising Ethiopian power. Beijing’s … Continue reading Eagle Eye 362