EE-369Download MOZAMBIQUE: Escalating Insurgency Poses Threat to Long-Term Security and Stability Summary: The Ahlu-Sunnah wa-Jama (ASWJ) will almost certainly continue to escalate its insurgency as it gains legitimacy through a nominal partnership with the Islamic State affiliates, destabilizing the northern provinces of Mozambique. Government security forces will probably maintain the current military-focused counterinsurgency strategy, which … Continue reading Eagle Eye 369
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EE-365Download KYRGYZSTAN: Reform and Change Unlikely Amid Rising Authoritarianism Summary: Ethnic tensions, democratic shortcomings, and corruption will probably facilitate a strong authoritarian government. This government will almost certainly seek to quell ethnic tensions, impede democratic reforms, and continue corrupt practices to maintain the status quo during times of political unrest. Kyrgyz Turmoil: The former soviet … Continue reading Eagle Eye 365
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EE-363-1Download TAIWAN: Chinese Militarization Will Almost Certainly Raise Tensions, Prompt Conflict Summary: Due to its militarization, a growing independence movement, and likely increase in support from regional allies, China will probably view Taiwan as a growing issue and take diplomatic or military action to quell dissent. Longstanding Tensions: Beijing strongly maintains the “One China Principle,” … Continue reading Eagle Eye 363