DOWNLOAD LEBANON: Gulf State Retaliation Likely an Attempt to Uproot Iranian Influence Summary: Prime Minister Najib Mikati placed pressure on Information Minister George Kordahi after Kordahi’s comments on the Saudi-led war in Yemen prompted severe backlash from several Gulf states. The retaliation from several Gulf states, especiallyRiyadh, likely represents a move to force Beirut to … Continue reading Eagle Eye 392
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DOWNLOAD NORTH KOREA: Persistence of Increased Cyberattacks Likely to Fund Nuclear Program Summary: The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) sponsored and conducted a series of unprecedented cyberattacks through the efforts of various Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups. The DPRK-sponsored cyberattacks will almost certainly continue and will likely escalate, reinforced by the successes demonstrated in … Continue reading Eagle Eye 377
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EE-367Download FRANCE: Growing Islamophobia Will Likely Increase Tensions, Weaken Diplomacy Summary: Growing Islamophobia in France may exacerbate Islamic extremism and will almost certainly heighten tensions between ethnic French and Muslims. Tensions will likely catalyze anti-immigration policies in Paris and may hurt French diplomatic standing globally. Growing Xenophobia: During January 2015, the French government banned burqas, … Continue reading Eagle Eye 367
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EE-365Download KYRGYZSTAN: Reform and Change Unlikely Amid Rising Authoritarianism Summary: Ethnic tensions, democratic shortcomings, and corruption will probably facilitate a strong authoritarian government. This government will almost certainly seek to quell ethnic tensions, impede democratic reforms, and continue corrupt practices to maintain the status quo during times of political unrest. Kyrgyz Turmoil: The former soviet … Continue reading Eagle Eye 365
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EE-364Download MEXICO: Uncertain Future of Sonora Project Likely to Exacerbate Lithium Shortage Summary: Cartel activity and possible nationalization of lithium mining could threaten the output of the Sonora Project mine. Such a reduction could create larger supply shortages in a strained lithium market. However, companies interested in protecting the lithium supply chain might provide security … Continue reading Eagle Eye 364
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EE-361Download LEBANON: Reform Delays May Deteriorate Governance, Enable Hezbollah Summary: Delays in reforming and reinstating the Lebanese government will almost certainly undermine governance and may facilitate Hezbollah’s pursuits of domestic political control. Unrest continues as Lebanon struggles to recover from the Beirut explosion, cabinet resignation, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The international community seeks to aid … Continue reading Eagle Eye 361
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EE-360Download CHINA: Cyberspace Development Will Likely Yield Strategic Dominance Summary: Beijing will probably reorient towards a domestic tech-based industry amid the global race for cyber dominance. It will continue to utilize disinformation campaigns and exercise control over information to quell domestic and international criticism. China’s international cyber and infrastructure policies will probably aim to entice … Continue reading Eagle Eye 360
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EE-359Download BELARUS: Unrest to Continue, Direct Russian Intervention Probable Summary: Tensions between protestors and law enforcement in Belarus following the recent contested presidential election will almost certainly continue to escalate, especially if Russian intervenes directly. Current Tensions: Following the 9 August presidential election, protests erupted across Belarus over concerns of fraud. After 26 years in … Continue reading Eagle Eye 359
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EE-357Download POLAND: Suspension of Disciplinary Chamber Likely to Increase Tensions Summary: The suspension of the disciplinary chamber designed to monitor Poland’s judicial system by the European Union (EU) will likely increase tensions, despite the low probability of strong action. Development: On 8 April, the European Commission ruled to suspend Poland’s disciplinary chamber, originally intended to … Continue reading Eagle Eye 357
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EE-356Download AFRICA: COVID-19 Will Almost Certainly Impair Security and Undermine Governance Summary: The COVID-19 pandemic will almost certainly escalate rapidly in Africa, further deteriorating human security, endangering governmental stability, aggravating territorial conflicts, and enabling Chinese expansionism throughout the continent. Spreading Epidemic: By 2 April, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) reported 6,234 … Continue reading Eagle Eye 356