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Download CHINA: Expansion of Blue Water Fleet Presence Almost Certain After Bering Sea Patrol Summary: TheChinese Coast Guard has entered the Bering Sea for the first time while patrolling with Russian Border Guard vessels. Beijing is almost certainly attempting to expand its reach beyond Chinese waters by expanding the presence of its blue-water fleet. Development: … Continue reading Eagle Eye 458

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Download IRAN: Jerusalem Strike on Tehran Leaders Will Likely Escalate Ongoing Proxy War Summary: Jerusalem’s most recent strike on Iranian leaders will likely lead to a heightened conflict with Tehran. Tehran has vowed to retaliate, which will likely lead to an increase in the frequency of alternating attacks. Tehran’s retaliation will likely involve the use … Continue reading Eagle Eye 453

Eagle Eye 452

Download ROMANIA-BULGARIA: Full Schengen Entry Delay Likely to Hinder Economic Growth Summary: Bucharest and Sofia will likely face setbacks in the potential for economic growth after acquiring only partial accession into the Schengen Area, with a delay of full membership coming from illegal immigration concerns from Austria. Prolonged negotiations with Vienna will likely continue stalling … Continue reading Eagle Eye 452

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Download ARMENIA: Ceasing Participation in Treaty Organization Likely Part of Broader Shift Summary: Yerevan’s announcement that Armenia froze its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will likely prompt further distancing from Russia, a full withdrawal from the CSTO, and deeper ties with France. Development: On 23 February, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced … Continue reading Eagle Eye 449

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Download IRAN: Simulated Attack on Israel May Lead to Tehran’s Open Support of Hamas Summary: The simulated Iranian attack on an airbase in Israel showcases advances in military power which may indicate Tehran’s intention to openly support Hamas and involve its own military in the Israel-Hamas War. Development: On 12 February, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard … Continue reading Eagle Eye 447

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Download ISRAEL-IRAN: Tehran Will Likely Resume Using Hamas as Proxy Toward Jerusalem Summary: Tehran will likely continue using proxies for its dirty work to avoid the consequences of its actions. A recent ceasefire in the war likely resulted from background actors trying to plan for short- and long-term intentions. Background: On 7 October, Iran-backed Hamas … Continue reading Eagle Eye 442