Download ARMENIA: Ceasing Participation in Treaty Organization Likely Part of Broader Shift Summary: Yerevan’s announcement that Armenia froze its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will likely prompt further distancing from Russia, a full withdrawal from the CSTO, and deeper ties with France. Development: On 23 February, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced … Continue reading Eagle Eye 449
Eagle Eye 448
Download NIGER: Regional Energy Dominance Likely with Cooperation with Sahel Nations Summary: Niamey’s energy meeting with the other nations from Sahel stated will likely make Niamey a dominant regional energy supplier. Development: On 17 February, energy ministers from Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, and Togo discussed diesel supply plans for Niamey. ECOWAS-imposed sanctions disrupted electricity … Continue reading Eagle Eye 448
Eagle Eye 447
Download IRAN: Simulated Attack on Israel May Lead to Tehran’s Open Support of Hamas Summary: The simulated Iranian attack on an airbase in Israel showcases advances in military power which may indicate Tehran’s intention to openly support Hamas and involve its own military in the Israel-Hamas War. Development: On 12 February, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard … Continue reading Eagle Eye 447
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DOWNLOAD LEBANON: Record Low Economy and Loss of UN Vote Likely to Speed Up Elections Summary: The loss in value of the Lebanese Pound, UN vote losses, and continued vacancy in the president’s position may induce urgency in the Lebanese Parliament to fill a three-month presidential vacancy. Development: On 25 January, Lebanon's economy reached a … Continue reading Eagle Eye 421
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DOWNLOAD NORTH KOREA: Key Missile Developments Likely Signal Future Nuclear Weapons Tests Summary: Pyongyang seems likely to test nuclear weapons in the near future in conjunction with its rapidly advancing missile program. Pyongyang possesses advanced missile capabilities, now with a vital component for successfully launching an intercontinental ballistic missile most likely developed for reaching its … Continue reading Eagle Eye 405
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DOWNLOAD LEBANON: Improved Relations with Gulf States Unlikely to End Economic Crisis Summary: Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants Abdallah Bou Habib stated that Beirut no longer acts as a launch pad to infringe on the affairs of the Gulf States. However, mending relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) probably will not end its … Continue reading Eagle Eye 397
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DOWNLOAD LEBANON: Gulf State Retaliation Likely an Attempt to Uproot Iranian Influence Summary: Prime Minister Najib Mikati placed pressure on Information Minister George Kordahi after Kordahi’s comments on the Saudi-led war in Yemen prompted severe backlash from several Gulf states. The retaliation from several Gulf states, especiallyRiyadh, likely represents a move to force Beirut to … Continue reading Eagle Eye 392
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DOWNLOAD LEBANON: Compounding Crises Likely an Opportunity for Foreign Influence Summary: Lebanon remains locked in one of the worst economic crises in history as the country grapples with a severe fuel crisis, widespread mistrust of the government, and crippling healthcare and food shortages. The dire state of the economy will likely open doors for foreign … Continue reading Eagle Eye 389
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DOWNLOAD CANADA: Snap Elections Likely Detrimental to Reputation of Administration Summary: Despite Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s projected retention of power, the inability of his party to gain a parliamentary majority and the unpopularity of the snap elections will almost certainly prove detrimental to the remainder of his time in office. Development: On 21 September, preliminary … Continue reading Eagle Eye 385
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EE-366Download IVORY COAST: Incumbent President’s Removal Unlikely Despite Tensions Summary: Incumbent President Alassane Ouattara will likely hold a third term despite calls for his removal. Current opposition tactics will almost certainly fail due to ineffective protests, the country’s economic growth under Ouattara, and support for his presidency from military and other governmental institutions. Electoral Tensions: … Continue reading Eagle Eye 366