Download RUSSIA: Foreign Recruitment for War Effort Likely Due to Growing Desperation Summary: Moscow has recruited and coerced third-country nationals to fight in Ukraine. This almost certainly reveals a growing desperation in the face of mounting casualties, inability to achieve military objectives, and potential domestic upheaval. Background: From February 2022 to January 2026, the Russian … Continue reading Eagle Eye 491
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Download SERBIA: Natural Gas Balancing Likely to Avoid Sanctions Without Harming Relations Summary: Belgrade’s mixed actions and statements regarding its future natural gas imports likely reflect a desire to avoid significantly worsening its relations with Brussels, and thus new sanctions, while maintaining its positive relations with Moscow. Development: On 10 February, CEO of Serbian state-owned … Continue reading Eagle Eye 490
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DOWNLOAD IRAN: Protestor Deaths Will Likely Encourage Violent Anti-Government Action Summary: Following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, protests continue against Iranian police, resulting in the deaths of Iranian citizens. This may lead to more resistance and anger towards the Iranian government, likely leading to more violent demonstrations. Development: On 20 September, Iranian officials confirmed … Continue reading Eagle Eye 411
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DOWNLOAD AFGHANISTAN: Increasing Bombings Likely Targeting Police and Military Forces Summary: The increasing trend of unclaimed bombings in Kabul indicates the bombings will almost certainly happen again and will likely target police and military forces. Development: On 21 February, unknown persons detonated two bombs in Kabul, killing three and wounding 20. A similar incident occurred … Continue reading EE 374
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DOWNLOAD MYANMAR: Military Coup Will Almost Certainly Result in National Instability Summary: The Burmese military seized Myanmar’s major political leaders and invoked a state of national emergency. The tensions between the civilian government and military leaders will likely precipitate national instability. Development: On 1 February, Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, sent troops to arrest State Counselor … Continue reading Eagle Eye 371