Download RUSSIA: Foreign Recruitment for War Effort Likely Due to Growing Desperation Summary: Moscow has recruited and coerced third-country nationals to fight in Ukraine. This almost certainly reveals a growing desperation in the face of mounting casualties, inability to achieve military objectives, and potential domestic upheaval. Background: From February 2022 to January 2026, the Russian … Continue reading Eagle Eye 491
Eagle Eye 490
Download SERBIA: Natural Gas Balancing Likely to Avoid Sanctions Without Harming Relations Summary: Belgrade’s mixed actions and statements regarding its future natural gas imports likely reflect a desire to avoid significantly worsening its relations with Brussels, and thus new sanctions, while maintaining its positive relations with Moscow. Development: On 10 February, CEO of Serbian state-owned … Continue reading Eagle Eye 490
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Download CHINA: Hacking Discoveries Likely to Encourage Malicious Cyber Activity from Beijing Summary: Beijing’s typhoon cyber-attacks presented a security threat to its competitors. The attacks possessed the capability to attack infrastructure, commit espionage, and monitor activity of United States presidential candidates and others. Beijing almost certainly will develop more powerful cyberweapons to replace the typhoon … Continue reading Eagle Eye 461
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Download MALI: Broken Peace Deal Will Likely Augment Internal Security Strategy Summary: The dissolution of a peace deal will likely enhance Bamako’s capabilities and influence against internal rebel groups. Development: On 25 January, Bamako spokesperson Colonel Abdoulaye Maiga announced the termination of the 2015 peace deal with Tuareg rebel groups. Bamako based this decision on … Continue reading Eagle Eye 444
Eagle Eye 443
Download RUSSIA: North Korean Missiles Likely Intended to Overwhelm Ukrainian Missile Defense Summary: Moscow likely intends to use short-range ballistic missiles imported from Pyongyang to increase the number of successful strikes against Kyiv’s civilian population centers by launching multiple missiles at once. Development: On 10 January, members from the Conflict Armament Research Organization found the … Continue reading Eagle Eye 443
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Download ISRAEL: Airstrikes on Aleppo Airport Likely Targeted at Tehran’s Operations Summary: Jerusalem conducted an airstrike on Aleppo International Airport, resulting in a shutdown and five injuries. The attack will probably hinder Iranian operations and warn Iran of consequences if support for Syria continues. Development: On 14 October, Jerusalem launched an airstrike that hit and … Continue reading Eagle Eye 437
Eagle Eye 435
Download TAIWAN: Chinese Refugee Case Signals Likely Continuation of Taipei’s Asylum Policy Summary: A Chinese dissident refused to return to Beijing and remains in Taiwan while seeking political asylum. The incident follows a trend of activists petitioning Taipei for refuge and will likely continue for the foreseeable future. Development: On 22 September, Chinese citizen and … Continue reading Eagle Eye 435
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Download RUSSIA: Summit with North Korea Will Likely Lead to Arms Deal Summary: The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un will likely lead to an arms deal. The arms deal will most likely increase Pyongyang’s reconnaissance and missile capabilities while providing Moscow with munitions … Continue reading Eagle Eye 434
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Download NORTH KOREA: New Nuclear Submarine Unlikely to Boost Nuclear Deterrence Abilities Summary: Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un announced the launching of a new tactical nuclear submarine unlikely to boost Pyongyang’s nuclear deterrence capabilities. Development: On 8 September, Pyongyang unveiled an enhanced tactical nuclear Romeo-class submarine. The newly modified submarine can carry up to 10 ballistic … Continue reading Eagle Eye 432
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Download CHINA: Cyberattacks in Taiwan Likely to Encourage Conflict Summary: Beijing’s cyber assaults against Taipei will likely disrupt Taiwanese morale since Taipei remains in a constant vulnerable position with Beijing. Development: On 9 October, Taiwanese parliament member Wang Ting-Yu announced an increase in cyberattacks from Beijing. Inaccurate information regarding the attacks continues to circulate on … Continue reading Eagle Eye 413