EE-366Download IVORY COAST: Incumbent President’s Removal Unlikely Despite Tensions Summary: Incumbent President Alassane Ouattara will likely hold a third term despite calls for his removal. Current opposition tactics will almost certainly fail due to ineffective protests, the country’s economic growth under Ouattara, and support for his presidency from military and other governmental institutions. Electoral Tensions: … Continue reading Eagle Eye 366
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EE-362Download NORTHEAST AFRICA: Dam Construction May Shift Power in Nile River Basin Summary: Ethiopia may surpass Egypt as the regional hegemon upon completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo and Khartoum will almost certainly continue to oppose the GERD because of water shortage anxieties and mounting fears of a rising Ethiopian power. Beijing’s … Continue reading Eagle Eye 362
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EE-361Download LEBANON: Reform Delays May Deteriorate Governance, Enable Hezbollah Summary: Delays in reforming and reinstating the Lebanese government will almost certainly undermine governance and may facilitate Hezbollah’s pursuits of domestic political control. Unrest continues as Lebanon struggles to recover from the Beirut explosion, cabinet resignation, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The international community seeks to aid … Continue reading Eagle Eye 361
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EE-359Download BELARUS: Unrest to Continue, Direct Russian Intervention Probable Summary: Tensions between protestors and law enforcement in Belarus following the recent contested presidential election will almost certainly continue to escalate, especially if Russian intervenes directly. Current Tensions: Following the 9 August presidential election, protests erupted across Belarus over concerns of fraud. After 26 years in … Continue reading Eagle Eye 359
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EE-355Download VENEZUELA: Mass Emigration May Exacerbate Social and Economic Turmoil Summary: The mass emigration of Venezuelans amid a humanitarian crisis will likely heighten regional tensions, exacerbate the decline of Venezuela’s oil economy, and increase health concerns throughout Latin America. These consequences of mass emigration may precipitate a power vacuum in Venezuela that criminal organizations and … Continue reading Eagle Eye 355