DOWNLOAD SAUDI ARABIA: Riyadh Purge Likely to Solidify Future Latitude for Crown Prince Summary: The latest in a series of anti-corruption purges by Riyadh likely represents an effort by Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) to ensure his ability to rule in whatever manner that he sees fit. This includes eliminating those that could challenge … Continue reading Eagle Eye 379
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DOWNLOAD AFGHANISTAN: Increasing Bombings Likely Targeting Police and Military Forces Summary: The increasing trend of unclaimed bombings in Kabul indicates the bombings will almost certainly happen again and will likely target police and military forces. Development: On 21 February, unknown persons detonated two bombs in Kabul, killing three and wounding 20. A similar incident occurred … Continue reading EE 374
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DOWNLOAD SUDAN: Tensions with Ethiopia Likely to Escalate over Grand Renaissance Dam Summary: Tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia will likely increase as talks regarding the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (GRD) break down. Development: On 6 February, Sudan’s Irrigation Minister Yasser Abbas warned Addis Ababa that any step to fill the GRD, located on the Blue … Continue reading EE 372
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EE-362Download NORTHEAST AFRICA: Dam Construction May Shift Power in Nile River Basin Summary: Ethiopia may surpass Egypt as the regional hegemon upon completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo and Khartoum will almost certainly continue to oppose the GERD because of water shortage anxieties and mounting fears of a rising Ethiopian power. Beijing’s … Continue reading Eagle Eye 362
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EE-361Download LEBANON: Reform Delays May Deteriorate Governance, Enable Hezbollah Summary: Delays in reforming and reinstating the Lebanese government will almost certainly undermine governance and may facilitate Hezbollah’s pursuits of domestic political control. Unrest continues as Lebanon struggles to recover from the Beirut explosion, cabinet resignation, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The international community seeks to aid … Continue reading Eagle Eye 361
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EE-353Download HEZBOLLAH: Political, Financial Turmoil Will Likely Refocus Operations Domestically Summary: The Lebanese Hezbollah will likely refocus towards resolving domestic issues and reduce its operational capabilities abroad as a result of changing Iranian military leadership and growing political volatility in Lebanon. Hezbollah may also direct foreign operations towards developing its connection with criminal enterprises in … Continue reading Eagle Eye 353
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EE-350Download POLAND: Controversial Judicial Reform Bill May Agitate EU Relationships Summary: The passage of a controversial judicial reform bill in Poland will likely inhibit judiciary capabilities and inflame tensions with the European Union (EU). Development: On 4 February, Polish President Andrzej Duda authorized a bill allowing politicians to fine and fire judges who made decisions … Continue reading Eagle Eye 350
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EE-346Download SYRIA: Aggressive Turkish Operations Will Likely Exacerbate Territorial Conflict Summary: The Republic of Turkey will likely sustain military operations in northern Syria, aggravating territorial conflicts in northeastern Syria, weakening the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), reinvigorating the Islamic State insurgency, and emboldening Russian and Iranian mediation of power in the broader Middle East. Enduring … Continue reading Eagle Eye 346