EE-369Download MOZAMBIQUE: Escalating Insurgency Poses Threat to Long-Term Security and Stability Summary: The Ahlu-Sunnah wa-Jama (ASWJ) will almost certainly continue to escalate its insurgency as it gains legitimacy through a nominal partnership with the Islamic State affiliates, destabilizing the northern provinces of Mozambique. Government security forces will probably maintain the current military-focused counterinsurgency strategy, which … Continue reading Eagle Eye 369
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EE-366Download IVORY COAST: Incumbent President’s Removal Unlikely Despite Tensions Summary: Incumbent President Alassane Ouattara will likely hold a third term despite calls for his removal. Current opposition tactics will almost certainly fail due to ineffective protests, the country’s economic growth under Ouattara, and support for his presidency from military and other governmental institutions. Electoral Tensions: … Continue reading Eagle Eye 366
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EE-363-1Download TAIWAN: Chinese Militarization Will Almost Certainly Raise Tensions, Prompt Conflict Summary: Due to its militarization, a growing independence movement, and likely increase in support from regional allies, China will probably view Taiwan as a growing issue and take diplomatic or military action to quell dissent. Longstanding Tensions: Beijing strongly maintains the “One China Principle,” … Continue reading Eagle Eye 363
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EE-362Download NORTHEAST AFRICA: Dam Construction May Shift Power in Nile River Basin Summary: Ethiopia may surpass Egypt as the regional hegemon upon completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo and Khartoum will almost certainly continue to oppose the GERD because of water shortage anxieties and mounting fears of a rising Ethiopian power. Beijing’s … Continue reading Eagle Eye 362
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EE-346Download SYRIA: Aggressive Turkish Operations Will Likely Exacerbate Territorial Conflict Summary: The Republic of Turkey will likely sustain military operations in northern Syria, aggravating territorial conflicts in northeastern Syria, weakening the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), reinvigorating the Islamic State insurgency, and emboldening Russian and Iranian mediation of power in the broader Middle East. Enduring … Continue reading Eagle Eye 346