EE-366Download IVORY COAST: Incumbent President’s Removal Unlikely Despite Tensions Summary: Incumbent President Alassane Ouattara will likely hold a third term despite calls for his removal. Current opposition tactics will almost certainly fail due to ineffective protests, the country’s economic growth under Ouattara, and support for his presidency from military and other governmental institutions. Electoral Tensions: … Continue reading Eagle Eye 366
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EE-362Download NORTHEAST AFRICA: Dam Construction May Shift Power in Nile River Basin Summary: Ethiopia may surpass Egypt as the regional hegemon upon completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo and Khartoum will almost certainly continue to oppose the GERD because of water shortage anxieties and mounting fears of a rising Ethiopian power. Beijing’s … Continue reading Eagle Eye 362
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EE-353Download IRAN: Growing Uranium Stockpiles Will Likely Exacerbate Tensions with the West Summary: Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium continues to grow beyond the limit set in 2015, signaling that the conservative parliament will likely not respond to global pressures to reduce stockpiles. Development: On 3 March, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran’s … Continue reading Eagle Eye 354
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EE-353Download HEZBOLLAH: Political, Financial Turmoil Will Likely Refocus Operations Domestically Summary: The Lebanese Hezbollah will likely refocus towards resolving domestic issues and reduce its operational capabilities abroad as a result of changing Iranian military leadership and growing political volatility in Lebanon. Hezbollah may also direct foreign operations towards developing its connection with criminal enterprises in … Continue reading Eagle Eye 353