DOwnload RUSSIA: European Union Secondary Sanctions Likely to Reduce Oil Evasion Summary: Expanded European Union (EU) secondary sanctions will likely reduce Russia’s ability to evade energy restrictions. In turn, this would probably increase Moscow’s reliance on narrower trade partnerships and less transparent logistics networks. Development: On 9 February, the EU proposed a new sanctions package targeting third-country ports and commercial … Continue reading Eagle Eye 489
Eagle Eye 488
Download IRAN: Nuclear Talks Likely First Step Towards Easing Tensions Summary: If the nuclear disarmament negotiations with Tehran in Istanbul succeed, it will likely accelerate efforts to de-escalate regional tensions. Background: On 2 February, Tehran agreed to enter diplomatic talks in Istanbul alongside other regional powers over the nuclear disarmament of the Iranian armed forces. … Continue reading Eagle Eye 488
Eagle Eye 487
Download RUSSIA: Cloud-Based Phishing Campaign Likely to Increase Malware’s Resilience Summary: A newly identified phishing campaign targeting Russian users will likely increase cybercriminal resilience by abusing legitimate cloud services to distribute Amnesia RAT and ransomware. Development: On 24 January, cybersecurity researchers identified a multi-stage phishing campaign targeting users in Russia that delivers a remote access … Continue reading Eagle Eye 487
Eagle Eye 486
Download SYRIA: Escape of Islamic State Fighters Unlikely to Alter Ceasefire and Integration Summary: The Kurdish Coalition known as the Syrian Democratic Force (SDF) is likely responsible for the release of Islamic State (IS) fighters from several Syrian detention facilities on 19 January. The prisoners’ escape is unlikely to affect the current ceasefire agreement. Development: … Continue reading Eagle Eye 486
Eagle Eye 366
EE-366Download IVORY COAST: Incumbent President’s Removal Unlikely Despite Tensions Summary: Incumbent President Alassane Ouattara will likely hold a third term despite calls for his removal. Current opposition tactics will almost certainly fail due to ineffective protests, the country’s economic growth under Ouattara, and support for his presidency from military and other governmental institutions. Electoral Tensions: … Continue reading Eagle Eye 366
Eagle Eye 362
EE-362Download NORTHEAST AFRICA: Dam Construction May Shift Power in Nile River Basin Summary: Ethiopia may surpass Egypt as the regional hegemon upon completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo and Khartoum will almost certainly continue to oppose the GERD because of water shortage anxieties and mounting fears of a rising Ethiopian power. Beijing’s … Continue reading Eagle Eye 362
Eagle Eye 354
EE-353Download IRAN: Growing Uranium Stockpiles Will Likely Exacerbate Tensions with the West Summary: Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium continues to grow beyond the limit set in 2015, signaling that the conservative parliament will likely not respond to global pressures to reduce stockpiles. Development: On 3 March, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran’s … Continue reading Eagle Eye 354
Eagle Eye 353
EE-353Download HEZBOLLAH: Political, Financial Turmoil Will Likely Refocus Operations Domestically Summary: The Lebanese Hezbollah will likely refocus towards resolving domestic issues and reduce its operational capabilities abroad as a result of changing Iranian military leadership and growing political volatility in Lebanon. Hezbollah may also direct foreign operations towards developing its connection with criminal enterprises in … Continue reading Eagle Eye 353