Download ROMANIA-BULGARIA: Full Schengen Entry Delay Likely to Hinder Economic Growth Summary: Bucharest and Sofia will likely face setbacks in the potential for economic growth after acquiring only partial accession into the Schengen Area, with a delay of full membership coming from illegal immigration concerns from Austria. Prolonged negotiations with Vienna will likely continue stalling … Continue reading Eagle Eye 452
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Download RUSSIA: Selection of Wagner PMC Leader Will Likely Give Moscow Control of Activities Summary: Moscow’s public announcement of a new leader for Wagner PMC will likely turn the private military contractor’s main attention to the Ukraine conflict. Wagner PMC operations in Africa will likely continue despite the reorientation. Development: On 29 September, President Vladimir … Continue reading Eagle Eye 436
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Download CHINA: President's "Peace Plan” May Create a Distraction from Uyghur Crisis Summary: Chinese President Xi Jinping’s planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the Ukraine conflict may act as a media stunt to distract from the ongoing human rights violations against Uyghur Muslims in China. Development: On 17 February, Beijing publicly called for … Continue reading Eagle Eye 425
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DOWNLOAD CHINA: Trade Disputes May Force Canberra into Negotiations Summary: Canberra’s reliance on Beijing’s economic relationship might influence Canberra to negotiate in Beijing’s favor. Development: On 14 October, China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Chan, requested Canberra for quiet diplomacy to mend Canberra’s conflicts with Beijing, according to SBSNews. Beijing’s current trade sanctions on Australian exports, … Continue reading Eagle Eye 414
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DOWNLOAD CHINA: Vaccine Efficacy Results May Disrupt Distribution Plans Summary: Beijing admitted to low efficacy rates for its current COVID-19 vaccines, which will likely set back its distribution plans. Nations that accepted vaccine shipments from China may also need to change course. Development: On 10 April, Director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and … Continue reading Eagle Eye 381
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EE-369Download MOZAMBIQUE: Escalating Insurgency Poses Threat to Long-Term Security and Stability Summary: The Ahlu-Sunnah wa-Jama (ASWJ) will almost certainly continue to escalate its insurgency as it gains legitimacy through a nominal partnership with the Islamic State affiliates, destabilizing the northern provinces of Mozambique. Government security forces will probably maintain the current military-focused counterinsurgency strategy, which … Continue reading Eagle Eye 369
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EE-365Download KYRGYZSTAN: Reform and Change Unlikely Amid Rising Authoritarianism Summary: Ethnic tensions, democratic shortcomings, and corruption will probably facilitate a strong authoritarian government. This government will almost certainly seek to quell ethnic tensions, impede democratic reforms, and continue corrupt practices to maintain the status quo during times of political unrest. Kyrgyz Turmoil: The former soviet … Continue reading Eagle Eye 365
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EE-362Download NORTHEAST AFRICA: Dam Construction May Shift Power in Nile River Basin Summary: Ethiopia may surpass Egypt as the regional hegemon upon completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo and Khartoum will almost certainly continue to oppose the GERD because of water shortage anxieties and mounting fears of a rising Ethiopian power. Beijing’s … Continue reading Eagle Eye 362
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EE-361Download LEBANON: Reform Delays May Deteriorate Governance, Enable Hezbollah Summary: Delays in reforming and reinstating the Lebanese government will almost certainly undermine governance and may facilitate Hezbollah’s pursuits of domestic political control. Unrest continues as Lebanon struggles to recover from the Beirut explosion, cabinet resignation, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The international community seeks to aid … Continue reading Eagle Eye 361
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EE-358Download ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN: Border Clashes May Add to Economic Strife, Ethnic Tensions Summary: Ankara and European governments will probably cultivate influence in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as it endangers the South Caucasus Pipeline System. Continued violence along the Line of Contact (LOC) in the Nagorno-Karabakh region will probably stir ethnic tensions in Armenia and Azerbaijan. The conflict … Continue reading Eagle Eye 358