Download ROMANIA-BULGARIA: Full Schengen Entry Delay Likely to Hinder Economic Growth Summary: Bucharest and Sofia will likely face setbacks in the potential for economic growth after acquiring only partial accession into the Schengen Area, with a delay of full membership coming from illegal immigration concerns from Austria. Prolonged negotiations with Vienna will likely continue stalling … Continue reading Eagle Eye 452
Eagle Eye 451
Download YEMEN: Houthi Rebels Will Likely Shut Down All Trade Conducting in the Red Sea Summary: On 6 March, Houthi militants ramped up attacks, causing fatalities for the first time. This escalation underscores the growing threat posed by the Houthi rebels to maritime security in the area. Given the increased frequency and intensity of these … Continue reading Eagle Eye 451
Eagle Eye 448
Download NIGER: Regional Energy Dominance Likely with Cooperation with Sahel Nations Summary: Niamey’s energy meeting with the other nations from Sahel stated will likely make Niamey a dominant regional energy supplier. Development: On 17 February, energy ministers from Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, and Togo discussed diesel supply plans for Niamey. ECOWAS-imposed sanctions disrupted electricity … Continue reading Eagle Eye 448
Eagle Eye 447
Download IRAN: Simulated Attack on Israel May Lead to Tehran’s Open Support of Hamas Summary: The simulated Iranian attack on an airbase in Israel showcases advances in military power which may indicate Tehran’s intention to openly support Hamas and involve its own military in the Israel-Hamas War. Development: On 12 February, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard … Continue reading Eagle Eye 447
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Download UKRAINE: Foreign Assistance Likely to Limit Effectiveness of Russian Cyberattacks Summary: Moscow persists in its cyber campaign on Kyiv as attacks launched by hacker groups aim to cripple critical infrastructure and government networks. Kyiv’s response, bolstered by foreign assistance, will likely limit the overall effectiveness of the campaign. Kyiv will likely continue to request … Continue reading Eagle Eye 419
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EE-363-1Download TAIWAN: Chinese Militarization Will Almost Certainly Raise Tensions, Prompt Conflict Summary: Due to its militarization, a growing independence movement, and likely increase in support from regional allies, China will probably view Taiwan as a growing issue and take diplomatic or military action to quell dissent. Longstanding Tensions: Beijing strongly maintains the “One China Principle,” … Continue reading Eagle Eye 363
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EE-361Download LEBANON: Reform Delays May Deteriorate Governance, Enable Hezbollah Summary: Delays in reforming and reinstating the Lebanese government will almost certainly undermine governance and may facilitate Hezbollah’s pursuits of domestic political control. Unrest continues as Lebanon struggles to recover from the Beirut explosion, cabinet resignation, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The international community seeks to aid … Continue reading Eagle Eye 361
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EE-353Download HEZBOLLAH: Political, Financial Turmoil Will Likely Refocus Operations Domestically Summary: The Lebanese Hezbollah will likely refocus towards resolving domestic issues and reduce its operational capabilities abroad as a result of changing Iranian military leadership and growing political volatility in Lebanon. Hezbollah may also direct foreign operations towards developing its connection with criminal enterprises in … Continue reading Eagle Eye 353