Special thanks to Professors Dale Avery and Alan Saquella for their participation in voting.
Best Brief Fall 2023 Winner:
MEXICO: Gang Ambushes Will Likely Continue to Disrupt the Lives of Citizens
Summary: Local gangs in Sonora ambushed citizens, military professionals, and police officers two days in a row. These attacks disrupted schools and the Day of the Dead celebrations, and the gangs will likely continue with the attacks to gain dominance over the area.
Development: On 1 November, local gangs ambushed agents from the state attorney general’s office on a highway in Magdalena de Kino, Sonora. Police officers chased the attackers into a nearby mountain, but the attackers escaped, according to AP News. The gang members left behind a truck, three assault rifles, and smears of blood at the location of the attack. The head of Sonora’s security department, María Dolores Del Río, described the attack as a “regrettable symptom” caused by her office’s attempt to take down organized crime in the area, according to ABC News. On 31 October, gang members fired shots and injured a police officer and four military personnel in a nearby town called Altar. They left behind a burned military truck and a civilian truck covered in bullet holes and spray-painted “vtasma,” the Cazadores gang call sign, according to The Washington Post. Both attacks disrupted one of Mexico’s most popular holidays, El Dia de los Muertos (the Day of the Dead). Schools close to the attacks canceled classes and bus routes, and city officials postponed holiday celebrations and ceremonies for fear of attack by local drug gangs, according to AP News.
Analysis: The multiple attacks that interfered with schools and holiday celebrations show the high likelihood that the drug gangs will continue to disturb the lives of citizens with sudden attacks. The blood smears, trucks, and call signs will likely gain media attention, causing fear to rise among citizens. The security department’s attempt to cease organized crime likely led to the attack in Magdalena de Kino. This shows that the gangs will probably ambush more areas in the state as the number of attempts to stop them increases.
[Isabel Marley]
Best Brief Fall 2023 Runner-Up:
KOSOVO: Sebian Protestor Deaths Likely to Increase Chances of Renewed Conflict
Summary: Serbian protesters armed with lethal weaponry killed a Kosovan police officer responding to the protesters’ roadblock. The protesters retreated to a Serbian Orthodox monastery and battled police forces for hours. Tensions between Belgrade and Pristina may continue to rise as both governments place blame on each other.
Development: On 24 September, 30 Serbian protestors blocked a road in northern Kosovo. They protested the rule of Prime Minister Albin Kurti. The protestors opened fire with rifles and hand grenades on police responding to the blockade. As police overwhelmed the protesters’ position, they fell back to a nearby monastery. The protesters surrendered after a day-long shootout. Police killed three, injured six, and arrested the rest. Pristina labeled the attack an act of Serbian terrorism; however, Belgrade supported the actions of its people. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic apologized for the death of the officer but criticized the actions of Pristina’s police for killing Serbians. Belgrade does not recognize Pristina as an independent state.
Analysis: As both governments continue to criticize the actions of the other based on the outcomes of the protest, tensions seem likely to rise between the countries once again. Serbian citizens in Kosovo most likely will continue to protest Kurti as well as the killing of Serbians in Kosovo. Pristina will likely double down on efforts to dismantle Serbian militia groups in the country. Tensions will likely not defuse quickly, and further attacks both in Kosovo and Serbia may happen.
[Liam Black]
Best Brief Fall 2023 Nominations:
TAIWAN: Investment Talks Likely to Increase Amount of Comprehensive Trade Deals
Summary: The completion of talks on a more comprehensive and influential investment agreement between Taipei and Ottawa likely indicates an increase in the amount of future trade and investment agreements Taipei will sign.
Development: On 24 October, Taipei and Ottawa jointly announced they completed talks that began in February on a bilateral investment agreement, specifically a foreign investment promotion and protection arrangement (FIPA), according to Focus Taiwan. This represents the first time that Ottawa will complete a bilateral investment agreement since it revised its model investment agreement in 2021, according to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Canada. This deal comprises more than 70 provisions and offers some of the highest levels of protection, convenience, inclusiveness, and predictability among similar pacts recently signed by countries worldwide, according to Taiwan Today. Taipei signed many bilateral investment treaties (BIT) with foreign governments in the past, but Taipei currently does not possess a FIPA, which officials hold to a higher standard than a BIT, according to records by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
Analysis: The completion of talks on a FIPA will likely give Taipei greater credibility when negotiating future trade agreements and will likely result in Taipei signing further comprehensive trade deals. This will result in greater foreign investments in Taiwan, likely causing an increase in potential aid for Taiwan by such investors. This investment agreement may assist Taipei in forming other diplomatic agreements with foreign governments. Although this likely indicates a shift in global politics toward political recognition of Taiwan, it remains unlikely that such recognition will happen soon.
[Brandon Chua]
ISRAEL-IRAN: Large-scale Conflict Likely to Arise Soon
Summary: Jerusalem will likely start a large-scale conflict against Tehran if it claims the recent airstrikes in Syria. Tehran will likely use its newest military hardware against Jerusalem.
Development: On 1 October, Jerusalem allegedly launched an airstrike on Iranian weapons shipments in al-Dimas, west of Damascus. The airstrike primarily targeted the Syrian Army and pro-Iranian militia groups in Syria. Jerusalem previously conducted raids on Tehran-backed groups to intercept arms shipments intended for Hezbollah in Lebanon. On 2 October, Jerusalem performed a second airstrike on Iranian targets in Deir al Zor, Syria, according to Iran International. The Islamic Republic of Iran Army revealed its latest creation, the Kaman 19 drone, during a large-scale military drill. A spokesman for the Joint Drone Exercise Brigadier General Alireza Sheikh stated the drone exercise successfully used electronic warfare and air base disruption activities. Tehran recently barred one-third of all International Atomic Energy inspectors from the country’s nuclear facilities.
Analysis: Tehran and Jerusalem will likely continue to prepare for a large-scale conflict. If Jerusalem claims it conducted the recent airstrikes in Syria to diminish Iranian groups and Tehran-affiliated groups, then Jerusalem may escalate to a larger attack on Tehran. Tehran preventing inspectors from entering nuclear facilities may indicate the concealment of weapons of mass destruction like nuclear weapons. If not already, Tehran will probably start plotting against Jerusalem. Tensions will likely escalate further and likely cause war between Jerusalem and Tehran.
[Alexis Creager]
