INDIA: Failed Peace Talks with Beijing Will Probably Only Lead to Border Skirmishes
Summary: New Delhi and Beijing’s failed attempt to reach an agreement on disengagement goals regarding the Line of Actual Control (LAC) at the recent peace talks will likely not escalate conflict levels.
Development: On 10 October, New Delhi and Beijing held the 13th round of peace talks to discuss disengagement actions on the LAC. However, the talks ended in a stalemate with each side blaming the other for the failure. Beijing accused New Dehli of making “unreasonable and unrealistic demands,” and, in turn, New Delhi blamed Beijing for not providing any “forward-looking proposals,” according to the Indian Express. Indian Army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane said that despite the failed talks, both sides agreed to keep communications open and maintain stability. In recent weeks, the situation on the LAC deteriorated very quickly. Now, both troops are preparing to spend the winter in the Himalayas. Naravane stated that if Chinese troops remain on the LAC, then the Indian troops will also stay. On 11 October, Beijing warned New Delhi that, “If it starts a war, it will definitely lose,” according to the Economic Times.
Analysis: Despite the failed peace talks and escalating border tensions, the commitment to maintain communications probably will limit conflict to continued border skirmishes along the LAC. Tensions remain unlikely to dissipate, since the possibility of both troops remaining stationed throughout the winter makes the situation even more fragile. New Delhi’s commitment to respond to any action taken by Beijing will likely frustrate both sides. Furthermore, Beijing’s warning of war towards New Delhi also raises concerns of further military escalation. However, since both countries are keeping communication open and are actively trying to resolve border tensions, war will likely remain the last resort.
[Isha Patel]
UNITED KINGDOM: New Cyber Headquarters Likely to Act as Deterrent
Summary: London’s announcement of plans to build a warfare center for the National Cyber Force (NCF) will probably not change much for its cyber capabilities but may act as a deterrent against potential attackers.
Development: On 2 October, London announced the construction of a new $5.8 billion digital warfare center to house the newly formed NCF and boost the nation’s offensive cyber capabilities. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said the new headquarters will employ thousands of experts and analysts by the year 2030 to further enhance its offensive capabilities. According to Wallace, hackers target the government on average 60 times a day ranging from curious individuals to hostile states. The United Kingdom, a leading cyber-power, openly admits to launching offensive cyber-attacks in retaliation of hostile attacks and against terrorist groups since 2018.
Analysis: The creation of the NCF’s new headquarters may act as a deterrent against the growing threat of cyber-attacks, but likely will not change London’s capabilities. After seeing an increase in global cyber activity, London probably felt the need to reiterate its capabilities to dissuade potential attackers. Wallace’s interview probably intended to dissuade youthful hackers from attempting to breach government databases with the fear of new offensive capabilities. The new announcement likely meant to reinforce London’s desire to build upon its cyber program and warn potential attackers what its response may look like after an attack.
[Carson Ramocinski]
NORTH KOREA: Restored Hotlines Unlikely to Halt Missile Tests
Summary: North Korea restoring hotlines with South Korea most likely represents an attempt to control future diplomatic peace talks while continuing to develop its missile program.
Development: On 4 October, Pyongyang restored the inter-Korea hotline with Seoul, allowing for vital military and political communication between both countries. The call to restore the vital hotline first came from South Korea’s President Moon Jae-In amidst Pyongyang’s missile tests starting on 14 September. Pyongyang has launched four missiles since 14 September, prompting Moon to call for the end of the Korean War on 21 September during a United Nations speech as a part of his election promise to bring peace to the peninsula. Shortly afterward, Pyongyang responded that an inter-Korean summit may be possible if Seoul drops its hostile stance towards Pyongyang. On 29 September, North Korea launched its new hypersonic missile, Hwasong-8, capable of Mach 5 speeds.
Analysis: Pyongyang will most likely continue missile tests despite continuing talks with Seoul probably to gain a diplomatic advantage in future talks. The missile tests likely started as an attempt to ease sanctions in a bid at missile diplomacy. Pyongyang’s public display of advancements in its missile technology probably indicates the need to show off its power to both neighboring countries and adversaries and its people. Pyongyang likely responded to Moon’s calls for closer ties to acquire concessions like humanitarian aid. Continuing to launch missiles during peace talks may demonstrate Pyongyang’s desire to control the talks.
[Sebastien Bragg]
RUSSIA: Expansion of Foreign Agent Law Likely Foreshadows 2024 Election Outcome
Summary: Moscow’s Federal Security Service (FSB) released a list of non-classified topics that determine a “foreign agent,” expanding under the Foreign Agent Law. President Vladimir Putin likely allowed the release of the list to protect his reelection in 2024.
Development: On 30 September, Moscow’s counterintelligence agency, the FSB, released a list of 60 non-classified topics that, if written about by the media, could designate a “foreign agent.” The list expanded upon the “Foreign Agents” Law created a year prior by the United Russia Party. The extension to the list made 60 more non-classified topics illegal to write about in the media. The list included mostly topics about the military and the space agency. As stated in the law, the FSB can enforce punishment and give the label of “foreign agent” if the media reports on the topics listed. The FSB’s release of the non-classified topics list came shortly after protests against the parliamentary elections which occurred throughout Moscow.
Analysis: The expansion of the law demonstrates that Putin will likely attempt to protect his chances of reelection in the 2024 presidential elections through the censorship of the topics instigative writers and the media post about. Putin most likely ordered the extension of the Foreign Agent Law and banned media topics after his party won the majority of seats during the parliamentary election to better allow himself and the United Russia Party to stay in power. After last week’s protest against the election, Putin most likely felt threatened, prompting his response to tighten media restrictions. Putin likely views the protests and related media as the primary threat to his control of Moscow.
[Riley Singley]
BELGIUM: Ousted Russian Intelligence Officers Likely to Increase Tensions
Summary: The deposed Moscow intelligence officers and limited Russian mission to NATO will almost certainly create more friction between the West and Moscow.
Development: On 6 October, NATO removed eight undeclared Russian agents from its Brussels headquarters. The Russian mission to NATO were responsible for hosting the officers. A spokesperson for NATO announced that the mission would limit the number of representatives from 20 to 10. This comes after NATO asked its allies for reports on Moscow’s intelligence operations. In response, Moscow’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko accused NATO of exaggerating Russian threats towards the West. Leonid Slutsky, a Russian parliament member, claims the West continues policies to pressure Moscow through diplomatic measures.
Analysis: The move to oust the Russian officers will likely result in increased tensions between NATO and Moscow. NATO likely found critical Russian threats in the intelligence compiled by its allies, leading to the expulsion. The likely deterioration of the diplomatic and communication pipeline between these two actors will probably lead to more aggression like increased covert action or likelihood of conflict. Increased tension will likely contribute to the possible continuation of the deteriorating relations.
[Kaden Gaede]
