RUSSIA: Moscow Likely Attempting to Provoke Ukrainian First-Strike
Summary: Moscow’s mobilization of troops near the Ukrainian border probably reflects an effort to provoke a Ukrainian military response despite its public denial of intent.
Development: On 12 November, Moscow publicly denied any intent to invade Ukraine at this time and said that the movement of Russian forces on Russian territory should not cause international concern. This announcement came after a series of nations expressed concern about the ongoing Russian exercises and troop movements near the Ukrainian border. Moscow has previously used troop movements and exercises to disguise conflicts in eastern Europe. On 18 March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine using soldiers without insignias. On 8 August 2008, Russia invaded Georgia under the pretext of “military exercises,” using that explanation to mobilize the forces required to attack.
Analysis: Moscow is likely using its deployment of troops and exercises near the Ukrainian border to provoke Minsk into initiating further conflict, possibly enabling Moscow to act against Ukraine with less fear of international intervention. This conflict would likely provide Moscow with an opportunity to secure Ukrainian territory and resources while depleting Ukraine’s military. However, Minsk will not likely strike against Russia first unless it can gain wider and more guaranteed international support. Alternatively, Minsk may have greater incentive to initiate a conflict against Russia if it believed that initiating the conflict would provide Ukraine with a significant advantage.
[Edward Micklos]
CHINA: Beijing Condemns Taipei’s Acceptance of Foreign Aid, Likely Sparking Conflict
Summary: Beijing responded to Taiwan accepting aid from Western actors, which may lead to intensifying tensions.
Development: On 9 November, Western nations flew military aid to Taipei. Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesman Senior Colonel Tan Kefei publicly stated that “Taiwan is a sacred and indivisible part of Chinese territory, this action seriously jeopardized China’s territorial sovereignty and severely threatened peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” Beijing condemns Taipei’s acceptance of Western actors’ military aid. As a result, Beijing began conducting combat readiness patrols in the direction of the Taiwan Strait.
Analysis: Western actors aiding Taipei will most likely heighten tensions between Beijing and Taipei. Beijing likely sees Taipei’s acceptance of foreign aid as a threat to its claim on Taiwan. Beijing probably believes Western actors have no right to involve themselves in this conflict. However, since Western actors are becoming more involved and Beijing is implementing a new combat patrol in the Taiwan Strait, this will most certainly heighten tensions between Beijing, Taipei, and other participating nations, potentially sparking conflict.
[Madison Pera]
INDIA: Manipur Ambush May Lead to Tensions with Beijing Along Northeast Border
Summary: The ambush on an Indian Army convoy will most likely revive tensions between New Delhi and Beijing in the once peaceful state of Manipur near the northeastern border.
Development: On 13 November, insurgents attacked a Quick Response Team (QRT) convoy, killing seven people, including Colonel Viplav Tripathi, his wife and six-year-old son, and four other soldiers. People’s Liberation Army Manipur (PLAM) and Manipur Naga People’s Front (MNPF) took responsibility for the attack, according to Times Now News. In the past, Beijing offered safe havens for insurgent leaders, and New Delhi officials also speculate that it has re-established ties with northeastern insurgent groups in the wake of the tensions on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), according to the Hindustan Times. However, Beijing has not commented on the situation. This ambush also marks the first major deadly attack on security forces in Manipur since 2018, according to India Today. In response to the ambush, New Delhi promised swift action to avenge the family and fallen soldiers and has already launched operations against the insurgents, according to Hindustan Times.
Analysis: The attack on the QRT convoy by the PLAM and MNPF will most likely raise once-dormant tensions between New Delhi and Beijing along the northeastern border. Since it remains very likely that Beijing is backing the insurgent groups in Manipur, Beijing and the insurgents probably planned to disrupt the long-time peace. Beijing most likely intended to cause New Delhi to divert its attention and resources from the LAC to a new region. New Delhi’s strong response likely indicates its determination to combat Beijing and will further strain their relations.
[Isha Patel]
CHINA: Central Committee Likely to Extend President’s Term at Sixth Plenum
Summary: The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CCCPC) seems likely to extend President Xi Jinping’s term length as his approval ratings continue to rise.
Development: On 8 November, CCCPC met in Beijing for the beginning of its sixth plenum. The Plenums, closed-door meetings used to discuss governance and all other issues related to improving the country, remain secret until their conclusion when the CCCPC announces all decisions to news agencies. In 1945, Mao Zedong used a plenum to sideline potential political opponents, and in 1981, Deng Xiaoping used one to move away from the cultural revolution and cement more power to the leader of China. Beijing has announced that it will make a “historic resolution” at the meeting. Deng and Mao made their plenum decisions in a time of leadership struggle, but Xi’s current approval rating in China remains at an all-time high. In 2018 the Chinese parliament passed an amendment that eliminated term limits for the president.
Analysis: The CCCPC will likely extend Xi’s term. Indications show that Xi and the CCCPC will probably follow the precedent set by Deng and Mao. The elimination of term limits indicates a likely third term. This, combined with Xi’s approval ratings, likely means Xi will remain in power for the foreseeable future.
[Evan Langler]
SOUTH KOREA: Presidential Candidates Unlikely to Continue Declaration Initiative
Summary: President Moon Jae-in’s end-of-war declaration seems unlikely to succeed, as both presidential candidates will likely follow their policy objectives regarding North Korea.
Development: On 8 November, main opposition People Power Party presidential candidate Yoon Seok-youl stated that he will not put on an inter-Korean summit as a show if elected president on 19 March when Moon’s term ends. Yoon criticized Moon’s end-of-war declaration, which calls for the end of the Korean War, for its leniency on bringing about Pyongyang denuclearization. Pyongyang stated it would consider the initiative if Seoul ends its double standards and withdraws hostile policies against Pyongyang. Yoon plans to focus on denuclearization to win international support. Opposition Lee Jae-myung’s policy on Pyongyang promises permanent sanction relief for inter-Korean projects and snapback measures against Pyongyang if it escalates tension in the region.
Analysis: Both presidential candidates seem unlikely to continue Moon’s end-of-war declaration agenda. The candidates will most likely focus on their policies regarding Pyongyang. Pyongyang seems unlikely to follow through on the declaration since Moon will leave office and may wait until after the election to act on the initiative. Pyongyang most likely wants Seoul to end hostile policies against the nation.
[Sebastien Bragg]
CHINA: Missile Testing on Mock Western Actor Warships Likely Adding to Tensions
Summary: Beijing recently used missiles on mock U.S. Navy carriers and destroyers for target practice, potentially increasing uncertainty in relations.
Development: On 8 November, satellite images from the desert of Taklamakan in Xinjiang displayed two mock Navy warships used for ballistic missile testing. Beijing revived the testing site after its yearlong dismantlement. Details of the carriers remain unclear except for two Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers with weapons systems and funnels. Arleigh Burke destroyers offer offensive and defensive capabilities for various missions patrol the West Pacific and Taiwanese waters. Beijing remains focused on neutralizing western military tools by creating anti-ship missiles. Beijing continues to rapidly build such missiles capable of taking out aircraft carriers, already developing land, sea, and air missiles to repel and potentially sink opposing vessels, according to NBC New York. Beijing will keep testing and creating ballistic missiles while tensions grow in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and Indo-Pacific region. Beijing denies all images.
Analysis: If such ballistic missile testing reoccurs, Beijing may extensively add to growing strains on relations with Western actors. Claiming almost all disputed waters, Beijing may attempt to take Taiwan in the next 10 years, likely threatening to use its ballistic missiles.
[Tatum Leyvas]
