RUSSIA-UKRAINE: Minsk Agreements May Influence Negotiations with Turkey Likely to Act as Mediator
Summary: The Russian war with Ukraine could lead to Ankara mediating the conflict due to pressure from NATO. Former Minsk Agreements will likely act as a reference in creating a new agreement between Moscow and Kyiv.
Background: Tensions between Kyiv and Moscow have been ongoing since 2014 after the overthrow of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych had ties to Moscow and the overthrow resulted in a Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Moscow annexed the peninsula of Crimea, and two secessionist regions broke away from Ukraine. The conflict continued through 2015, until Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany signed the Minsk Accords. Despite the agreements, tensions between Moscow and Kyiv persisted due to Kyiv’s shift in favor of Western ideologies and Moscow’s interest in claiming the region. On 24 February, tensions escalated when Moscow initiated a full-scale invasion of Ukraine including missile strikes, naval tactics, and sending large numbers of troops into the country. The Russian military continues specifically targeting military infrastructure within Ukraine but has seemingly little regard for civilian casualties in the process. On 1 March, Ankara closed to Black Sea to all maritime traffic. Ukraine’s capital Kyiv remains surrounded by Russian troops but remains under Ukrainian control. Russian President Vladimir Putin put Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert.
Turkish Relations: Turkey maintains political, economic, and military relations with both Russia and Ukraine, leaving it as a probable middleman. Ukraine continues calling Turkey for defense help within the Black Sea, but Turkey remains hesitant to respond due to a clause in the Montreux Convention. The 1 March closing of the Black Sea indicates an unwillingness to enable a major naval attack or advances. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his dissatisfaction with NATO’s response to the Ukraine crisis and suggested being a mediator for Moscow and Kyiv. Erdogan called for an immediate stop of Russian attacks to start ceasefire negotiations.
Minsk Agreements: The Minsk Agreements ended conflict previously by implementing a ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy military equipment and troops in 2015, signaling its possible use as a framework of peace for the current conflict. The agreements reinstated Luhansk and Donetsk as pro-Russian territories, and the Ukrainian government dissolved its power within Crimea. However, there remain conflicting views about the meaning of the agreements. The Ukrainian government viewed the agreements as a restoration to Ukrainian sovereignty except for two Russian-occupied regions. However, Moscow viewed the agreements as a step before being “reunited” with the rest of Ukraine. Should it take on a larger mediator role, Ankara will likely look to the Minsk Agreements as a starting point for peace negotiations.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine most likely displays Putin’s attempt in trying to gain more influence within the region, as Kyiv holds more Western ideologies. Putin likely wants to test the waters and the announcement of the decision to place nuclear forces on high alert may attempt to scare Kyiv into surrendering. However, it remains unlikely that Kyiv and Moscow will surrender soon, placing increased pressure on Ankara’s potential role as mediator.
[Autumn Champlin]
KAZAKHSTAN: Trade Agreements with Tehran Likely to Ease Economic Tensions
Summary: Nur-Sultan addressed increased trade partnership with Tehran as a foreign policy priority. Increased trade agreements will likely help ease Nur-Sultan’s economic crisis and push economic development in the region.
Development: On 22 February, Kazakh Prime Minister Alihan Smaiylov’s press service reported that Nur-Sultan and Tehran reaffirmed their readiness to increase trade cooperation. During the meeting, both parties discussed opportunities for cooperation in banking, logistics, and mining industries as well as the joint use of sea and dry ports of the countries. The trade turnover between the two countries reached $440.1 million in 2021 and may increase to $3 billion within the next few years, according to Astana Times. Smaiylov announced that cooperation with Tehran remains one of his largest priorities and Tehran can constitute a key trade partner of Nur-Sultan.
Analysis: Nur-Sultan’s comparative advantage in trade with Tehran will likely help reduce the prices of consumable goods, creating welfare gains for the Kazakh people. Open trade may benefit the lower income households by offering more affordable goods and services. With Nur-Sultan already exporting high value goods in the discussed industries, it remains likely a desirable trade partner for Tehran. Trade with Tehran could provide the long-term solution Nur-Sultan is looking for to push Kazakhstan out of poverty and into the next stages of economic development.
[Maggie Dostal]
CHINA: Likely to Use Ukraine Conflict to Establish Aerial Dominance Over Taiwan
Summary: Beijing is most likely performing aerial maneuvers over Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait to stretch Taiwan’s Air Force in preparation for heightened military presence exacerbated by Western focus on the Ukraine-Russian conflict.
Development: On 24 February, nine aircraft from the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLA), including eight Shenyang J-16 fighters and one Shaanxi Y-8 reconnaissance unit, flew over the northern area of Taiwan’s air defense zone (ADIZ), according to the Independent. In response, Taiwan scrambled fighters and air defense missiles.
Analysis: With the West distracted by the events in Ukraine, Beijing will most likely seek to establish aerial dominance over Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait. In response, Taipei will likely mobilize and amplify its own air movements as a result of the increased Chinese aerial presence. The escalation of Taiwan’s defenses probably will cause Beijing to increase the frequency and scale of the fly overs. Tensions will almost certainly continue to escalate.
[Justin Weis]
UKRAINE: Cyber Warfare Likely to Lessen Ukrainian Defense Capabilities
Summary: The ongoing Russian cyberattacks targeting Ukraine likely represent an attempt to undermine defense efforts amid Moscow’s invasion.
Development: On 23 February, a wave of denial-of-service attacks overwhelmed the servers of Ukrainian government websites and banks. Ukrainian cybersecurity professionals found computer wiping malware on bank and government computers. Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine at the same time as this new wave of cyberattacks. Moscow denied responsibility for the attacks, calling such claims “Russophobic.” The wiping virus found on Ukrainian computers possesses similarities to the NotPetya virus that Moscow launched in Ukraine in 2017. In the same year, Moscow developed custom malware named CrashOverride to take down the Ukrainian power grid.
Analysis: Moscow is likely using cyberattacks to weaken Ukrainian defense efforts. Moscow will likely continue these cyberattacks unless it successfully takes control of Kyiv. Moscow may have more damaging and sophisticated malware that could pose a threat later in the invasion of Ukraine. If there is a more damaging cyberattack, it will likely have disastrous consequences for Ukraine and help aid Moscow in its invasion.
[James Chandler]
HAITI: Violence and Political Crisis Likely to Increase United Nations Presence
Summary: The socioeconomic and political crisis in Haiti continues to escalate with no reform plan in place and no control over violent gangs. This likely will prompt further involvement of the United Nations (UN).
Development: On 18 February, the UN held a meeting discussing the current turmoil of the nation of Haiti. The ongoing political crisis originated in July 2021 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, which left Haiti without an elected president and created a divide among a group of political leaders called the Montana Accord. Violent gangs and worker’s rights activists filled the streets, preventing legitimate elections. Natural disasters continue to leave Haiti in devastation and in need for outside help. The UN Security Council addressed the concerns for Haiti’s socioeconomic climate with the rise of gang control and political divide, along with the environmental devastation. The UN continues to call for more international funding and support for the nation along with the already granted $600 million towards rebuilding the southern peninsula destroyed in last August’s earthquake. The UN holds the Port-au-Prince accountable, demanding elections by the end of this year and control over gang violence.
Analysis: The ongoing crisis within the Haitian government and society will likely cause the UN to call for more humanitarian aid. If the UN agrees, this may lead to the rebuilding of both the environment and government of Haiti. With the UN calling on Port-au-Prince for the next presidential election, one will likely take place in coming months. With the increase in financial support for the people of Haiti, the police force may have the resources to finally gain control over the violent gangs in the streets. The economy may finally rebuild itself and workers will receive increases in pay.
[Isabella Beiler]
