SOUTH KOREA: Conservative Party Likely Rebounding from Past Political Fracture
Summary: The conservative People Power Party (PPP) won the presidential election and seem likely to gain more popularity due to its political strategies. The Democratic Party of Korea (DP) most likely will lose some of its power due to the Moon Jae-in administration’s decreasing popularity.
Background: On 9 March, PPP candidate Yoon Suk-yeol beat his DP competitor Lee Jae-Myung, winning the presidential election by 0.8%, according to the National Election Commission. Also on 9 March, the PPP won 4 of the 5 National Assembly seats in the by-election, with the PPP now holding 110 seats compared to the DP’s majority 172 seats. In 2016, the National Assembly impeached and arrested then conservative President Park Geun-hye under corruption charges, all while large-scale protests happened across the peninsula. The Liberty Korea Party under Park fractured from the scandal and impeachment, with the DP gaining a majority in the National Assembly and Moon winning the 2017 snap election.
Moon’s Domestic Problems: Moon’s focus on North Korea and failure to accomplish his domestic promises almost certainly cause the Korean public to search for change. Moon enacted foreign policy similar to the Sunshine Policies of 1998-2008, which saw Seoul push for cooperation with Pyongyang and eventual unification. Moon partially denuclearized parts of Pyongyang’s missile platform, met with Supreme Leader Kim Jon-un in an inter-Korean summit, and called for the official end of the Korean War. Pyongyang, while showing interest, never fully acted on the End of War Declaration; Pyongyang once again indicated activity at a closed nuclear research center and demonstrated considerable advancements with its missile program. Along with making little progress with Pyongyang, Moon received criticism by giving aid to Pyongyang amid missile tests and a pandemic. Koreans also disapprove of Moon’s economic policies that failed to address the high unemployment rates and housing prices. Moon’s attempt to raise minimum wage caused employers to reduce workers, and his housing policies did not stop the rising housing prices. Moon’s administration also found itself under corruption investigations, dropping Moon’s approval rating to 43%.
Figure 1: Election results sorted by city (Chosun Ilbo)
Polarizing People Politically: The PPP’s campaign strategy of Yoon catering to men in their 20’s almost certainly will split the conservative female votes, but the PPP will still probably see a rise in popularity. Yoon promised to abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family and instead use the funding to fight unemployment and raise the base pay for conscripted military men. The gender equality ministry symbolizes to many young South Korean males their inability to find a job in a highly competitive job market. Young males showed growing anti-feminist ideals while young females felt conflicted over Yoon’s campaign strategy, according to polls by Chosun Ilbo.
Outlook and Implications: The Korean public’s experience with the democratic party probably prompted the public to seek a different direction for the nation. Disgruntled, unemployed young men almost certainly feel the effects of Moon’s economic policies. The PPP’s strategy of focusing on young males most likely will help the party gain the majority in future elections. Pyongyang will almost certainly respond negatively to Yoon’s nomination if he takes a different foreign policy direction than Moon. Gender equality will almost certainly decline if Yoon follows through with his campaign promises to his target audience.
Yoon most likely will have trouble implementing policies with a DP majority National Assembly, which will most likely make it difficult to abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family. The Yoon administration seems unlikely to decrease housing prices during his term, and housing prices may further escalate. Unemployment probably will decrease if Yoon reverses Moon’s policies. The PPP probably will gain a majority but almost certainly will lose the majority if the Yoon administration faces a major scandal, probably shifting political preference back towards the DP.
[Sebastien Bragg]
ISRAEL: Efforts to Improve Regional Relations Likely a Strategy to Combat Tehran
Summary: Jerusalem’s efforts to improve regional relations with various other Middle East states likely indicates a strategy to combat the increasing Tehran threat. Tehran’s increasing nuclear, cyber, and terrorism proxies in various Arab states likely poses a threat to Jerusalem. Jerusalem’s lack of allies in the region also likely raised concerns, especially given Jerusalem’s previous isolation due to the Israeli-Palestine conflict.
Background: Tehran, emboldened by Jerusalem’s lack of regional allies, continues to expand its influence within the region through its nuclear program, use of terrorist proxies, and cyber/military strength. Jerusalem began to build previously unheard-of relationships in the region, most notably with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Even though the Abraham Accords formalized relationships between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), efforts to engage in the accords did not start until recently.
Tehran as a Threat: Tehran’s increasing nuclear and cyber capability and support for local terrorists and insurgent groups as proxies likely contributed to Jerusalem seeking new allies. A rapid growth in Tehran’s uranium enrichment and stockpiling over the past two years worries Middle East leaders, especially in Jerusalem. Tehran enriched its uranium to 60% out of the 90% required to create one nuclear bomb on 26 March 2021, with exact statistics up to present day largely unknown due to counterintelligence efforts from Tehran, according to the UN Nuclear Watchdogs. With the second attempt at reviving the Iran Nuclear Deal still underway, Western diplomats and experts predict that Tehran will create one nuclear weapon and the capacity to build more soon if an agreement does not pull through. Tehran’s cyber capabilities likely increased significantly within the last decade following the Stuxnet worm against its nuclear program. The creation of the Supreme Council of Cyberspace, tasked with creating strategies to conduct cyber warfare against its enemies, witnessed Tehran’s budget for cyber development increase by 1,200%, according to the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. Tehran’s technical prowess also increased over time, with a transition from low impact attacks to destructive operations against Saudi and Israeli infrastructure.
Tehran’s willingness to use terrorism and local insurgencies as a political weapon also likely contributed to Jerusalem’s recent efforts at building regional relationships. The current civil war in Yemen over the Iranian-backed Houthis and Riyadh further displays this. Houthi rebels gained access to Iranian-based ballistic missiles and drones, using them to strike airports and other infrastructure in Saudi Arabia along with various parts of the UAE. Before Tehran’s patronage, Houthi rebels only had access to small-arms and some explosive devices. Tehran likely uses these groups as proxies to attack other Middle Eastern states without violating international law or starting open war.
Lack of Allies: Shared concerns in dealing with Tehran in conjunction with the US withdrawal and Jerusalem’s previous isolation likely brought Jerusalem, Riyadh, and Manama together against Tehran. With Western actors’ withdrawals from the Middle East, Jerusalem is likely looking for closer allies and alternatives. Jerusalem’s position in the Middle East has always been a point of contention with the other Arab states, specifically over the Israeli-Palestine conflict, which led Jerusalem to remain relatively isolated from other Arab states. Recently, the historical visit to Bahrain by the Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett marked a shifting point in Manama and Jerusalem’s relationship. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salaman recognized Jerusalem’s efforts at normalizing relationships, stating that Jerusalem could act as a potential ally. However, the Israeli-Palestine conflict remains a major roadblock in normalizing relations with Jerusalem and Riyadh, a conflict that Tehran will likely continue to exploit to push forward its agenda.
Outlook and Implications: Jerusalem’s recent efforts to build new relationships with various other Middle East states, most notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, likely indicates a strategy to combat the growing Tehran threat. Due to distancing efforts from Western actors, Jerusalem likely seeks to create new allies in the region for not only security purposes, but also to find allies willing to push back Tehran influence. Jerusalem is likely focusing on Riyadh and Abu Dhabi because of the harassment they face from Tehran and the Houthi rebels in addition to their capabilities, resources, and proximity to Tehran. However, with the Tehran threat ever changing, Israeli relations within the region may deteriorate overtime. This applies mostly to Riyadh, who likely only agreed to relations because of the current Tehran threat. With the Israeli-Palestine conflict being a primary roadblock to Israeli acceptance in the region, Tehran likely will continue to use the conflict to pit other Arab states against Jerusalem while continuing to expand its nuclear and cyber capabilities, and its proxy wars to other Arab states.
[Michael Doolan]
PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN: Suicide Bomber May Presage Future Attacks
Summary: ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) claimed responsibility for the suicide bombing of a Pakistani mosque and later released a statement confirming the death of the previous leader and announcing the new leader of ISIL, the timing of which may indicate a future increase in attacks.
Development: On 10 March, Islamabad confirmed that the person responsible for the 5 March bombing of a Pakistani mosque had trained in Afghanistan months prior to the attack. The attack killed 64 people, including the man responsible. In recent weeks, Islamabad expressed concerns of growing terrorist groups in Afghanistan. Following the report, ISIL released a public statement. The first part of the statement acknowledged the death of their previous leader in February. In the second part of the statement, ISIL recognized its new leader, Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi. ISIL claimed responsibility for the 5 March attack, and later confirmed the bomber as an ISIL agent. In the past, new leaders of the group typically stage large attacks to further cement their place. The Taliban has not commented about the attack. However, in the past weeks the Taliban reportedly conducted anti-criminal and anti-terrorism sweeps in major cities.
Analysis: The propinquity of the attack and the announcement of the new ISIL leader may indicate the beginning of more attacks. This attack most likely occurred to solidify the new al-Qurayshi authority. This bombing in Pakistan could signal the beginning of a string of terrorist attacks linked to al-Qurayshi. The continued terrorist attacks likely mean the Taliban are not dissuading the growing terrorist groups. If attacks continue to link back to Afghan agents, it remains likely that the unstable alliance between the Taliban and Islamabad will collapse.
[Liam Black]
SOUTH KOREA: Incoming President May Cause Tensions with China and North Korea
Summary: South Korea’s newly elected President Yoon Suk-yeol’s tough foreign policy stance on China and North Korea will most likely cause an increase in tensions between the countries.
Development: On 9 March, Yoon, part of the conservative People’s Power Party, won the South Korean presidential election by an extremely small margin of 0.7% of the votes against his opposition Lee Jae-myung. Yoon ran on taking a strict foreign policy approach to Pyongyang and Beijing, including a push for strengthening defenses along the border of Pyongyang, as well as developing ways to deter North Korea’s growing aggression towards Seoul. Yoon publicly stated that it is in Seoul’s best interest to align itself with Western powers and indicated interest in buying a second Western-built anti-ballistic missile system to protect itself from Pyongyang’s missile threats. In 2016, when Seoul purchased the first installation of a Western-built anti-ballistic missile system installation, Beijing responded to the investment with economic bans, calling it a national security threat. Yoon also stated plans to pursue improving relations with Tokyo. On 11 March, Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida agreed to meet with Yoon to improve relations with both countries.
Analysis: Since Yoon likely believes that Seoul should align itself with Western powers, tensions may increase between Seoul, Beijing, and Pyongyang. If Yoon focuses on building economic and military relations with Western powers, Beijing could interpret this as a direct threat to its security. The push for the installation of the second missile defense system will most likely increase friction between Seoul and Beijing. A second installation may cause Beijing to respond with more economic restrictions, and a general deterioration in foreign relations. Yoon’s stance on bolstering military defenses along Pyongyang’s border may also cause Pyongyang and Seoul’s diplomatic relations to deteriorate.
[John Conrod]
RUSSIA: Sanctions Likely to Increase Cyberattacks Targeting Western Renewable Energy
Summary: The sanctions placed upon Moscow likely will increase the amount and severity of cyberattacks of all varieties targeting the renewable energy production of Western nations.
Development: On 2 March, the World Bank stopped all programs in Russia and Belarus. Following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Western countries placed sanctions on Moscow limiting or blocking petroleum resource imports and freezing the assets of Russian oligarchs. According to Sergei Aleksashenko, a former deputy director of Russia’s central bank, “It’s a kind of financial nuclear bomb that falls on Russia.” Russia relies heavily on crude oil and petroleum gas exports.
Analysis: The sanctions Western powers have imposed on Russia will likely increase the amount of cyberattacks against the renewable energy industries of Western powers, especially those who recently stopped importing Russian petroleum products. Moscow relies heavily upon its petroleum exports, so it will likely try to attack renewable energy production in countries that recently banned Russian petroleum in an attempt to increase their reliance on Russian petroleum. Moscow may also target rival petroleum exporting countries that do not face sanctions.
[James Chandler]
