PHILIPPINES: Pending Election Results Will Likely Increase Domestic Conflict
Summary: Election polls demonstrate that the Philippines will likely elect Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to presidential office in the upcoming election. Marcos Jr., son of previous Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr., has close ties to the current President Rodrigo Duterte. If elected, the Marcos family history paired with the results of Duterte’s term will likely create further tensions between Marcos Jr. and domestic terrorist groups. These tensions will probably escalate in a violent manner during Marcos Jr’s prospective term.
Background: On 9 May, the presidential election in the Philippines will occur. The Communist Party of the Philippines – New People’s Army (CPP-NPA) has persisted through armed conflict with the Philippines since 1968. The CPP-NPA seeks to overthrow the current Philippine government to start a new system led by the working class and separated from Western ideology, according to the Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation. The CPP-NPA currently opposes Duterte’s National Task Force to End Local Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC). Duterte stated that he hopes his predecessor continues the work of the NTF-ELCAC, according to the Philippines News Agency. Current polls from Bloomberg favor Marcos Jr. with 56% of pollsters’ votes, with the nearest competitor holding 24%. In the vice-presidential race, Duterte’s daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, leads with 56%. Her closest competitor holds 20% of pollsters.
Marcos Family History: Marcos Jr.’s father served as president from 1965 to 1986, probably inspiring Marcos Jr.’s campaign. Marcos Jr.’s campaign is almost definitely reminding the older population of Marcos Sr.’s dictatorial reign, in which he held the Philippines under martial law for 14 years. Marcos Jr.’ s campaign platform is aiming for the votes of the younger population, most likely because their birth occurred after the time of his family’s tyranny. Voters who remember Marcos Sr.’s term will likely not respond positively to Marcos Jr.’s election.
Ties to Duterte: Duterte has not publicly endorsed a presidential candidate in this election, but likely supports Marcos Jr. Duterte stated that he wants to stay impartial, but the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino–Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban) political party, which Duterte leads, endorsed Marcos Jr., probably under instruction of Duterte. During his own campaign, Duterte stated that Marcos Sr. inspired his template for the presidency, which probably encouraged his support for Marcos Jr. Duterte also founded the NTF-ELCAC to oppose the CPP-NPA, almost definitely creating tensions between the CPP-NPA and any candidate affiliated with Duterte. The choice of Duterte’s daughter as a running mate almost certainly demonstrates a further alignment with Duterte’s presidency.
Outlook and Implications: The Marcos family history paired with Marcos Jr.’s ties to current Duterte will likely lead to increased tensions between the CPP-NPA and Marcos Jr., assuming Marcos Jr. holds his lead and wins the election. Because of the PDP-Laban’s endorsement of Marcos Jr., he will likely prescribe to similar policies as Duterte. By continuing policies such as the NTF-ELCAC, Marcos Jr.’s decisions will likely lead to more armed conflict between the Manila and the CPP-NPA.
Focusing on younger voters likely indicates that Marcos Jr. is attempting to disregard his family history of dictatorship and martial law. Voters who remember the tyranny of Marcos Sr. will likely disapprove of this strategy and Marcos Jr. as a president. More radical groups, like the CPP-NPA, will probably continue to oppose Manila. This will likely create a more unstable nation, as internal conflicts will likely become increasingly frequent. Internal instability will probably increase tensions with other countries as well.
[Grace Brown]
RUSSIA: Increase of Nuclear Threat Likely Poses a Threat to Future Warfare
Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent threat of using its nuclear capabilities as more than a deterrent almost certainly raises concerns for many countries, as any scale of a nuclear war would likely lead to confrontations with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) between Russian and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies.
Background: On 22 March, Putin’s Chief spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, stated that nuclear defenses are not off the table and that oppression from NATO or an existential threat to the country would justify a nuclear response. Moscow’s history contains a multitude of trends of nuclear statements, as Russia’s nuclear capabilities remain a constant threat ever since the Cold War. On many occasions following the Cold War, Putin has reminded the world of Russian nuclear warheads. Despite these threats from Putin and his advisers, t it is highly unlikely that Moscow would actually start a nuclear war, according to DW. However, the threat remains. In recent weeks, during the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Putin once again publicly highlighted Russian nuclear capabilities. In a televised address on 27 February, Putin claimed that deterrence forces, such as nuclear warheads, remain on high alert into a special mode of combat service.
Russian Nuclear Capabilities: The supply of nuclear warheads around the world likely deters any nuclear action from Moscow. Moscow still possesses one of the world’s largest and deadliest nuclear forces, according to NTI. A variety of sources reveal that Russia stands as the largest independent nuclear power in the world. According to reporting by Aljazeera, out of roughly 12,700 warheads in the world, Moscow admits to having some 5,977 of them.
Nuclear Limitations: Although Russia maintains a large inventory of nuclear warheads, limitations such as foreign stockpiles and environmental impacts likely prevent Moscow from implementing any WMDs. The first limitation is the inventory of the eight other nuclear countries. While Russia and the United States contribute to nearly 90% of all warheads, nuclear war would likely draw in countries like China, France, United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea due to the global implications that a nuclear war could cause. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine Crisis, Putin’s reference to the nuclear artillery likely serves as a threat only. Ukraine does not have any nuclear capability, likely indicating why Moscow avoids using its nuclear force. In the event that countries with nuclear capability engage in the crisis, their actions may pose a threat to Putin’s regime, possibly triggering a nuclear response.
The second limit entails the environmental and societal effects of a nuclear war. While the principal rule of nuclear weapons is to deter external threats, nuclear weapons have the capability to cause death, starvation, blindness, radiation poisoning and third-degree burns to any victims near the impact site, according to Insider. The mass genocide of a Russian nuclear bomb strike would likely escalate the scale of the war and hinder the safety and security of Russian citizens and operations. In addition to population shrinkage, environmental damage would also take a drastic hit in a nuclear war, likely affecting regions across the world. A large-scale nuclear war would have many global implications, such as: allowing only 30 to 40 percent of sunlight to reach Earth’s surface, fluctuating temperatures, and global famine, as stated by Alliance for Science. The implications of a nuclear war likely reveal that Putin’s statements to activate Russia’s nuclear power serve simply as threats, and the drastic fallout that would follow a war of this scale will likely deter Russia from using any weapons of mass destruction.
Outlook and Implication: Any action by Putin involving weapons of mass destruction will likely draw all nine nuclear countries into the Russian-Ukraine Crisis, escalating the conflict to a nuclear war between NATO and Russian allies alike. Operating under a nuclear agenda would likely unleash a new and dangerous style of warfare, having permanent effects on not only Russia, Ukraine, and NATO, but every region around the globe. Due to the drastic scale of a nuclear war, Putin will likely continue engaging in the Russian-Ukraine crisis through any means necessary just shy of nuclear warfare. Imminent threat to Russian stability likely serves as the only scenario in which nuclear artillery would emerge. If Putin’s regime is at a critical point and Moscow implements nuclear action, a nuclear response likely serves as the only way to compete with this style of warfare. The sheer scale of nuclear war would likely force many countries to engage in conflict, preserving and protecting their nations by any means necessary.
[Dalia Haase]
INDONESIA: Cyber-Attacks Almost Certainly to Escalate Leading to Elections
Summary: With the divided political climate between the secular and the Islamic parties, Jakarta frequently experiences political instability. President Joko Widodo is attempting to counteract the instability of the economy and foreign policy, but cyber-attacks divide the country. A large portion of these attacks stem from the political insurrections in the capital. The insecurity primarily from the upcoming 2024 presidential and, secondarily, the gubernatorial election is causing a rise in these cyber-attacks and will almost certainly continue to do so in the next years.
Background: All levels of the political hierarchy in Jakarta are experiencing a recent shift toward the prominence of religious ideologies in determining newly elected officials. This trend occurred in the 2014 presidential elections in which Widodo won for the first time and can also explain the violence that occurred surrounding the 2017 gubernatorial elections. Between October 2016 and May 2017, seven demonstrations against Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama took place in Jakarta, according to Asian Studies. On 2 December 2016, between 200,000 and 500,000 people took to the streets of Jakarta demanding Purnama’s imprisonment, according to Asian Studies. Jakarta recently released a proposed plan to alter the constitution to extend Widodo’s time in office or delay the 2024 presidential elections. Cyber troops, another element in the trend change of politics, actively sway and manipulate public opinion through coordinated internet and social media campaigns organized by governments, powerful parties, or corporations, according to Global Voices.
The Move Back to Religion: Upcoming political elections will likely increase tensions between the secular and Islamic parties rise in Jakarta. Several examples over the last decade demonstrate an active move toward religious ideologies influencing politics:
- On 29 September 2016, Purnama, an ethnic Chinese Christian who was preparing to run in the February 2017 gubernatorial election, made remarks that critics criticized as blasphemous toward Islam, leading to criminal charges and a series of protests in the city.
- In 1998, students led demonstrations that contributed to the fall of another presidential candidate, Suharto. Along with these visible mass gatherings, persuasion and intimidation took place in local mosques. During this time, up to 1,000 provocative banners hung in mosques, some of them stating a denial of funeral ceremonies to deceased people who voted for him during their lifetimes.
Increase in Hacktivism: Cyber-attacks will almost certainly continue to become more prominent as technology develops, and political insurrections will likely continue to create a boost in the ratio of cyber-attacks on Jakarta. A significant portion of the 42,000 cyber-attacks Jakarta experiences per day, which ranged from phishing to malware, originate from locals. These cyber-attacks consist of mostly hacking cases, targeting government and corporate websites. Some government institutions, including the General Elections Commission, Defense Ministry, Indonesian Child Protection Commission, Indonesian Association of Muslim Intellectuals, and the chairman of its advisory board, remain notable targets for these attacks.
- In 2016, Jakarta saw a boost in cyber-attacks on government agencies after Purnama’s conviction of blasphemy and sentencing to jail.
Outlook and Implications: Following the trends in cyber-attack increases during election seasons, the next presidential or gubernatorial candidates will probably use the promise of increased cybersecurity and religious appeasement as a means of an election advantage through unification of the people. Although Jakarta released a plan to extend Widodo’s presidential tenure either by changing the constitution or delaying the 2024 presidential election, Widodo probably will not act on this plan because it would disrupt the stability he worked towards fostering. However, government websites will almost certainly remain as a target from cyber troops contracted by the opposing party, either secular or Islamic. Additionally, cyber- attacks will almost certainly continue to rise through the upcoming elections, limiting the growth of the country as well as further dividing the people through political parties.
[Abigail Geiger]
CHINA: Newfound Confidence Likely to Inspire Military Movements
Summary: After observing Western powers’ involvement in Ukraine, Beijing likely fears Western actions much less. Beijing most likely intends to use the new military bases and aircraft carriers to establish military aerial and naval dominance in the Indo-Pacific.
Background: On 15 April, Beijing began to deploy J-20 fighter aircraft over the South and the East China Sea. Beijing stated the flights display its new “training routine” testing the newly developed Chinese engine, according to CNN. Beijing also cited “protecting Chinese airspace” in tandem with the new training. On 24 March, a leaked document detailed a deal between Honiara and Beijing, allowing the development of a new Naval base in the Solomon Islands. Honiara traded space for a military base in exchange for economic and domestic support. Enabling numerous Chinese soldiers to deploy and inhabit the island gives China a vital position in the battle for the Indo-Pacific area. This allows Beijing to establish a new base in tandem with the artificial islands that house multiple military bases. On 18 March, witnesses spotted a Chinese aircraft carrier moving through the Strait of Taiwan right before meeting with Western leaders. The CV-17 Shandong according to Beijing participated in its “routine training schedule,” according to Reuters.
Growing Confidence: After observing the actions of Western countries in Ukraine, Beijing likely fears the actions of Western powers much less. Beijing understands that the West will take action, but Beijing likely thinks that the degree will likely remain insufficient in stopping or deterring military operations around targeted areas in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing’s heightened military operations in recent months reflect that mindset. Beijing likely intends to ramp up operations due to the lack of response from the Western powers. Beijing shows its emboldened mindset through the comments of its foreign affairs minister, explaining Beijing’s actions under the guise of training. Beijing likely thinks that Western powers will dismiss Beijing’s actions if they explain that its intentions are training.
Military Dominance: Beijing likely intends to establish military aerial and naval dominance in the Indo-Pacific. In the last few years, Beijing expanded its military and military capability by establishing many man-made islands accompanied by military naval/aircraft bases. Beijing also developed and launched a new aircraft carrier, the CV-17 Shandong. All the developments likely reflect Beijing’s intention to establish military dominance in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing not only created new military bases and technology, but deployed J-20 and Y-8. The deployment of aircraft most likely indicates Beijing’s desire to expand its airspace.
Outlook and Implications: Beijing likely intends to create naval and aerial dominance after watching Western actions in Ukraine. In relation to the One China policy and the large expansion of the military, Beijing likely intends to start more aggressive military movements. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s expansion of the military reflects his desire to centralize control of the Indo-Pacific within China. Therefore, Beijing will likely begin to deploy higher amounts of military units and more actively expand military control over the area.
[Justin Weis]
