IRAN: Protestor Deaths Will Likely Encourage Violent Anti-Government Action
Summary: Following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, protests continue against Iranian police, resulting in the deaths of Iranian citizens. This may lead to more resistance and anger towards the Iranian government, likely leading to more violent demonstrations.
Development: On 20 September, Iranian officials confirmed deaths of Iranian protestors following the death of Amini. Amini died while in police custody, resulting in an uproar from Iranians. Many believe that police brutality caused Amini’s death and that Iranian officials are attempting to cover it up by claiming she had underlying health issues. The resulting protests remain relatively peaceful, with some violent outbreaks in Kurdish areas. Regardless, Iranian morality police have employed teargas and bullets to combat protestors, resulting in the deaths of five so far. Tehran justifies its use of force by implying that Saudi’s wanting instability within the country may lead to protests against the government.
Analysis: The death of Amini and those who protested her death will likely lead to more violence. If Iranian officials continue denying their actions against Amini, protests will most likely continue and cause a vicious cycle between police and citizens, causing more deaths.
[Autumn Champlin]
SWEDEN: Right-wing Parties’ Election Win Likely Indicates Strong Political Shift
Summary: The historic victory for the far-right Swedish Democrats and allies likely indicates a political overhaul, reflecting a shift in policy objectives and a social change in politics. Such policy objectives may include stricter immigration laws and crime reduction.
Development: On 19 September, Moderate Party Leader Ulf Kristersson received a mandate to organize the country’s next government. This mandate followed the general election results in which the right-wing bloc won the majority. The country’s four center-right and far-right parties won 176 seats, with the ruling Social Democrats only receiving 173 seats. Many of the far-right parties campaigned on reducing crime as well as implementing strict immigration policies. Police statistics revealed an increase in gang violence and shootings in the past few years. With the refugee crisis that occurred in 2015, policy in favor of stricter immigration laws continues to grow as anti-immigration Sweden Democrats recorded its best election result securing 20.5 percent of the vote.
Analysis: Because the right-wing group of parties won the majority vote, Kristersson will likely shift the government focus to more far-right issues, while dismissing policy utilized by the past administration. This will likely include policy favoring stricter immigration laws and crime reduction. Due to the narrow win by the right-wing parties, the Social Democrats and supporters will likely attempt to rally to lessen Kristersson’s influence. The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats securing a record 20.5 percent of the vote likely displays a strong public shift in immigration policy, with the refugee crisis in 2015 likely contributing to this.
[Michael Tokos]
SOUTH AFRICA: Aging Power Plants Likely to Exacerbate Severe Power Outages
Summary: Continuous power outages remain likely as South Africa’s power outage scale has reached stage six out of eight. State-owned power company Eskom will likely not meet power demands and may seek other means of producing electricity.
Development: On 18 September, Eskom initiated an increase in load shedding. Two outdated and malfunctioning coal-fired generating plants elicited this response. South Africa has eight levels of load shedding intensity, and the recent increase pushed it up to level six, according to Africa News. South Africa last reached this level in June due to high energy consumption. Reaching level six resulted in power outages for residents and organizations for several hours each day. Eskom’s CEO asked residents to minimize power use to avoid straining the grid or increasing the severity of the situation.
Analysis: South Africa will almost certainly continue having power outages due to overused and outdated coal processing plants and limited options for alternative energy sources. The public likely wants to reduce energy consumption to avoid outages. However, spending several hours without it each day may prompt them to consume more to meet their needs. Reaching level six in June and again in September shows that Eskom will almost certainly struggle to meet bare minimum demands anytime soon. Eskom executives may choose to replace aging coal processing plants with a cheaper energy source, if they deem it cost-effective in the coming years.
[Savannah Gallop]
ETHIOPIA: Eritrean Mobilization Likely an Escalation of Conflict to Avoid Negotiations
Summary: Asmara began mobilizing its military reservists to strengthen its army amid the renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. The mobilization may come under the direction of Addis Ababa to avoid negotiations and concessions by expediting the conflict.
Development: On 16 September, Asmara initiated a wide-scale mobilization of military reservists to strengthen its ranks amid the renewed fighting in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. Eritrean forces have aided Addis Ababa since fighting broke out between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Addis Ababa in late 2020. Renewed fighting broke a five-month ceasefire on 24 August, bringing the conflict back onto the world stage as Addis Ababa continues to experience international pressure to negotiate. The TPLF claims a willingness to negotiate under certain preconditions. Such concessions include lifting restrictions on basic services which continue to limit humanitarian aid to the region. Addis Ababa maintains a reluctance to satisfy these preconditions, despite claiming a willingness to conduct peace talks.
Analysis: Asmara’s large-scale mobilization of its reserve military forces likely signals a larger initiative by Addis Ababa to escalate the rate of conflict before further pressure from the international community pushes it towards making concessions. Addis Ababa likely remains reluctant to negotiate as it sees itself holding the upper hand in the conflict due to the dire state of its Tigray region. Engaging in peace talks now would likely draw out the conflict and give the TPLF more time to regroup, strategize, and secure more international support.
[Tim Fergus]
JAPAN: Proclamation with North Korea Unlikely to Survive Due to Nukes and Abductions
Summary: The historic 2002 Pyongyang Declaration agreeing to seek to restore the normal relations between Pyongyang and Tokyo seems unlikely to survive due to the conflicting stances on nuclear development and the abduction of Japanese citizens.
Development: On 16 September, the North Korean ambassador for Japan Song Il-ho denounced Tokyo for rendering the 2002 Pyongyang-Tokyo Proclamation null and void by enacting sanctions against Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile development programs. The proclamation states that both sides will pursue an early normalization of relations by cooperating economically, politically, and culturally. Tokyo’s most recent sanctions on 1 April placed 13 new sanctions against individuals and organizations that aided the development of Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs. Song reiterated that Pyongyang considers the issue of the abduction of Japanese citizens in the 1970s resolved with the return of five abductees after the 2002 proclamation. In a 2022 poll conducted by Tokyo’s cabinet office regarding Pyongyang, the issue of the abduction of Japanese citizens still ranks as the top interest at 79.8 percent compared to Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs at 77.8 percent and 65.5 percent.
Analysis: Tokyo and Pyongyang probably will abandon the 2002 Pyongyang-Tokyo Proclamation due to the uncompromising nature of both Pyongyang’s nuclear program and Tokyo’s stance on abducted citizens. Pyongyang almost certainly will continue to advance its nuclear and missile technology despite sanctions from Tokyo. Tokyo remains highly unlikely to lift sanctions against Pyongyang on the issue of Japanese citizen abductions remaining unresolved in Tokyo’s opinion. Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile capabilities may hold more interest for Japanese citizens in the future over the 1970s abductions, but Tokyo most likely will continue to sanction Pyongyang to deter further development of nuclear weapons and denuclearize the country.
[Sebastien Bragg]
MYANMAR: Attack on School Likely to Threaten the Integrity of Military Authority
Summary: The military attack on a public school in a Sagaing region likely threaten the junta’s capabilities to stabilize the political climate and integrity to peace in Naypyidaw.
Development: On 16 September, army helicopters fired at a school in the central Sagaing region, killing at least 13 people, including seven children. Naypyidaw’s pro-democracy shadow government, the National Unity Government (NUG), accused the junta military of targeting schools. The military acknowledged the raid on the school, stating that militia members from the Kachin Independence Army and Peoples Defense Force (PDF) hid inside. Junta officials deny killing children during the attack and accused those militia groups of using children as human shields. Eyewitnesses report that about 80 soldiers raided the school after the air attack, and took the children’s bodies for cremation at a nearby village. Since the attacks, the UN Security Council and other international groups threatened to establish further sanctions on Naypyidaw to end the violence and the release of major political leaders.
Analysis: Because of the targeted attack on the school, the events will likely threaten the military’s integrity to stabilize peace throughout the region. Due to eyewitness reports of soldiers taking the children’s bodies, the military most likely hid any evidence of the killings. With the junta denying any accusations of shooting children, they will probably conceal evidence against their statements. The NUG may use this event internationally in their favor to explain that the junta is covering up human rights violations. The UN Security Council most likely will establish further policies and sanctions to ensure regional peace.
[Damon Reyes]
