CHINA: Cyberattacks in Taiwan Likely to Encourage Conflict
Summary: Beijing’s cyber assaults against Taipei will likely disrupt Taiwanese morale since Taipei remains in a constant vulnerable position with Beijing.
Development: On 9 October, Taiwanese parliament member Wang Ting-Yu announced an increase in cyberattacks from Beijing. Inaccurate information regarding the attacks continues to circulate on social media platforms popular in Taiwan such as Facebook and Youtube, according to CBSNews. Wang announced 20 million cyberattacks occur in Taiwan every day. Records show a majority of attacks come from Beijing’s citizens attempting to gain the Taiwanese people’s trust. Wang mentioned Taipei steers clear of retaliation, but implements defenses to protect itself, according to CBSNews.
Analysis: Beijing’s increase in directed cyberattacks probably acts as an attempt to trigger civil conflict within society and expose government vulnerabilities. The progression of Beijing’s cyberattacks towards Taipei suggests that cyber assaults against Taiwan will likely continue. If Beijing succeeds in manipulating public opinion in favor of Beijing, then Taipei will almost certainly lose national support from its citizens. Distrust in the government may increase the chances of a successful invasion from Beijing due to a lack of national support.
[Lauren Estrada]
NORTH KOREA: Underwater Nuclear Silo Capability Likely an Effort at Intimidation
Summary: The development of underwater nuclear silos and simulated missile strikes will almost certainly cause adversarial concern in response to unknown capabilities and intentions.
Development: On 9 October, Pyongyang conducted ballistic missile exercises with mock nuclear warheads, marking the seventh test of this kind since 25 September. These ballistic missile tests focus on firing missiles from underwater in nuclear missile silos that Pyongyang claims it recently developed. The underwater silos make missiles more difficult to detect and intercept, according to the New York Times. North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un supervised the missile tests, calling them “simulated tactical nuclear strikes” as Pyongyang prepares for its first atomic test in five years.
Analysis: Pyongyang almost certainly intends to use the nuclear missile tests as global posturing to increase legitimacy when it comes to nuclear technology. Development of this underwater silo system indicates Pyongyang has likely initiated more weaponry developments that it may test in the short term. The placement of silos underwater and the label of “tactical nuclear strikes” could increase tensions with adversarial countries due to concerns over detection and intentions behind this new silo development. As a result, Pyongyang likely used the missile display as a method of intimidation rather than deterrence.
[Savannah Gallop]
RUSSIA: Reduced World Oil Production May Aid Economic Recovery
Summary: Moscow’s economy could benefit from the 2 percent production decrease in oil announced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). As oil prices increase, Moscow stands to strengthen its industrial sector through gained revenue.
Development: On 5 October, OPEC agreed to a production decrease of two million barrels per day. As the supply of oil decreases, the global demand remains at 100 million barrels per day. Moscow depends on revenue from oil and energy exports, but sanctions on Moscow decreased the amount of exported oil, while the conflict with Ukraine continues to affect Moscow’s economic sector as companies, investors, and employable citizens flee the country.
Analysis: OPEC’s decision may aid the Russian economy by increasing the price per barrel of oil. Moscow stands to regain lost revenue from Western-imposed sanctions, and Moscow may see the removal of oil export sanctions as Western nations attempt to keep oil prices low. The deal potentially provides a way to patch up its economy long enough to fully solve the economic problems it faces resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If oil export revenue stabilizes to pre-conflict levels, then Moscow could determine how to replace the key industrial and technological gaps in its economy and the employable manpower that left after conflict with the Ukraine began.
[Katie Larson]
HAITI: Cholera Deaths Likely to Impact Economic and Sociopolitical Pressures
Summary: The reemergence of cholera will likely further hinder the economic system and the struggles with sociopolitical troubles due to safety risks caused by contamination of cholera and gang violence.
Development: On 3 October, Miami Herald reported confirmed deaths in Haiti from cholera disease. Public health expert Dr. Jean William Pape announced earlier this year that Haiti had no confirmed cases of cholera for the past three years, according to Miami Herald. The first appearance of cholera in Haiti occurred 12 years ago. Over 10,000 people have passed due to this disease. The death toll for the most recent outbreak remains unknown due to contradicting reports. In the first outbreak, the Haitian Ministry of Public Health and Population (MSPP) worked with the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), and United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) to fight the epidemic. The United Nations (UN) reports willingness in providing aid to Haitian people in affected areas as soon as officials confirm safe access. Port-au-Prince continues to experience ongoing protests and gang violence following the assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moise.
Analysis: Port-au-Prince will likely experience economic and sociopolitical instability due to the threat of a mass cholera outbreak. Port-au-Prince will likely reach out to organizations such as MSPP, UNICEF, PAHO, and UN, which had provided aid in the last cholera outbreak. The spread of the disease will likely surpass previous numbers due to the current sociopolitical environment conditions. As Haitians become increasingly angry due to the rise in the cost of living and cholera reemerging, pressures on Port-au-Prince will likely increase. The blockage by the gangs will almost certainly continue, likely maintaining leverage over the government. The force of the gangs will likely corner Prime Minister Ariel Henry into resignation. As Haitians struggle and businesses and gangs continue gaining control over the country, the Haitian economy and sociopolitical climate will likely implode.
[Hannah Hoffman]
RUSSIA: New Accord For Annexation of Ukrainian Regions Will Likely Cause Conflict
Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin recently signed an accord for Moscow’s annexation of Ukrainian territories. The accord will likely lead to further war action in Ukraine along with increased hostility towards Moscow from other countries.
Development: On 30 September, Putin signed an accord to annex four occupied territories of Ukraine, including Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. This annexation comes as Moscow continues to face major losses in various parts of Ukraine. A Kremlin referendum occurred in these territories, with many countries denouncing it as illegal. Each of these regions experienced a forced election where voters proclaimed support or opposition towards the annexation of their territory. According to Moscow, 93 percent of Zaporizhzhia supported annexation, as did 87 percent in Kherson, 98 percent in Luhansk, and 99 percent in Donetsk. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry later labeled this as propaganda.
Analysis: Putin likely signed this annexation accord as a means of demonstrating Moscow’s hard and soft powers over Ukraine and to show others that Moscow’s actions remain parallel to the wants of the citizens in each territory. While it remains unknown what this may signify for Ukraine, this annexation may lead to further contention between the citizens and government of Moscow.
[Raechel Ferguson]
