NORTH KOREA: New Nuclear Submarine Unlikely to Boost Nuclear Deterrence Abilities
Summary: Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un announced the launching of a new tactical nuclear submarine unlikely to boost Pyongyang’s nuclear deterrence capabilities.
Development: On 8 September, Pyongyang unveiled an enhanced tactical nuclear Romeo-class submarine. The newly modified submarine can carry up to 10 ballistic missiles, according to 38North. Pyongyang operates 20 Romeo-class submarines, a Soviet-era design produced from 1976 until 1995. Pyongyang operates the world’s largest submarine fleet, with an estimated 83 total operational submarines, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Construction of the Hero Kim Kun Ok submarine appeared to the public eye in 2014; Kim later revealing it in 2019. Kim announced in the launching ceremony plans to convert the remaining 19 Romeo-class submarines into this new type of tactical nuclear submarine. The submarines operate tactically, carrying short-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The new submarine missiles can only strike short distances up to 1,200 miles, according to 38North.
Analysis: Pyongyang’s new tactical nuclear submarine, with plans to convert the remaining 19 submarines, most likely will not boost Pyongyang’s nuclear deterrence capabilities due to the extensive construction times. Considering its first public appearance until launch, the nine-year development time most likely means it will take Pyongyang at least four years to convert the next submarine. Due to the modified Romeo-class submarines’ age, Pyongyang will most likely face operational issues with the converted tactical nuclear submarines. The short-range nature of the nuclear missiles almost certainly means Pyongyang will utilize the short sea distances to target South Korea and Japan more than in previous years. Due to the old age and design of Romeo-class submarines, Seoul and Tokyo may already have strategies to detect the aging submarines.
[Sebastien Bragg]
MOROCCO: Earthquake Likely to Slow Economic Recovery
Summary: The recent earthquake in Morocco killed over 2,900 people and injured over 5,000 more. As the death toll continues to rise, the economy in Morocco, which relies heavily on tourism, continues to fall. Rabat planned to have a fully economic recovery from COVID-19 by 2023; however, the earthquake is likely to set back the economic recovery.
Development: On 8 September, a 6.8-magnitude earthquake struck Morocco. It originated in the Atlas Mountains, but its effects were felt in Marrakech and all the way to Casablanca (155 miles from the epicenter). Major tourism hubs, such as Marrakech, are receiving aid quickly. However, villages high in the mountains, which rely on hikers and tourism to support small local economies, remain inaccessible. Many homes in the Atlas Mountains, made of clay and mud bricks, did not survive the earthquake. Rabat mobilized both its health and military sectors to provide aid. While most residents now have access to food and water, Rabat is asking for assistance in making shelters for the thousands who lost their homes. Forecasts for total GDP loss due to the earthquake are roughly 8 percent or $10.7 billion.
Analysis: With tourism now bringing in little to no money and thousands of citizens displaced from their homes, the economy will almost certainly continue to fall. Small villages in the Atlas Mountains will likely take the longest to recover. These small villages will almost certainly be the last to get aid due to smaller populations and the difficulty accessing them. As the death toll continues to grow, international aid will likely increase, and Morocco’s economy will likely make a full recovery. However, Rabat will probably not make its 2023 recovery goals and mountain villages will likely suffer economically until tourism increases. [Liam Black]
UNITED KINGDOM: Alleged Spy Will Likely Weaken Economic Stability with China
Summary: A researcher for the United Kingdom (UK) Parliament allegedly collected information for Beijing for an extended period. The delay of awareness in the British Parliament will likely lead to distrust in economic ties between London and Beijing.
Development: On September 9, UK police officials claimed to have arrested a UK Parliament researcher on suspicion of espionage for Beijing. Reports indicated multiple men were involved in the suspicions, but officials only arrested one man this weekend, according to Financial Times. Officials recently released the researcher on bail, the individual denying all claims, according to Foreign Policy. Conflicts between London and Beijing will centrally focus on the Parliament’s inability to uncover information on the issue and the slow responses to Chinese espionage tactics, according to Foreign Policy. Officials in the UK Treasury and Department for Business and Trade claim that declaring China as a threat would impede valuable economic ties between London and Beijing, according to Politico.
Analysis: The recent accusations of espionage for Beijing on the UK Parliament researcher will likely cause Beijing to distance itself from partnerships with London. Since the alleged spy violated various agreements on behalf of Beijing, officials will most likely investigate any information collected that may affect London’s perspective on Beijing. Since the London-Beijing economic relationship remained steady in recent years, London will almost certainly attempt to mend the distrust created by the alleged spy. If London does not effectively conclude and recover from the allegations, then further tensions may lead to London viewing Beijing as a threat, thus leading to a derailing economic partnership.
[Lauren Estrada]
