RUSSIA: North Korean Missiles Likely Intended to Overwhelm Ukrainian Missile Defense
Summary: Moscow likely intends to use short-range ballistic missiles imported from Pyongyang to increase the number of successful strikes against Kyiv’s civilian population centers by launching multiple missiles at once.
Development: On 10 January, members from the Conflict Armament Research Organization found the remnants of Pyongyang’s KN-23 or KN-24 short-range ballistic missile that struck in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Moscow violated several resolutions in the United Nations Security Council that prohibit its members from procuring arms and related material from Pyongyang. Both the KN-23 and KN-24 are unguided, short-range ballistic missiles with a capable range of up to 280 miles. The missiles can use either conventional explosive warheads or carry nuclear payloads. Both missiles use depressed trajectories and increased maneuverability intended to increase the odds of defeating a missile system at the cost of range. These unguided missiles can strike within 350 to 650 feet of their intended target without satellite guidance compared to the average accuracy of striking within 30 feet, according to 38North.
Analysis: Due to the inaccurate nature of Pyongyang’s short-range ballistic missiles, Moscow likely intends to overwhelm Kyiv’s missile defenses over civilian populations by launching several missiles at once. Moscow most likely intends to launch several KN-23 missiles at once to overwhelm Kyiv’s air defenses to cause damage in cities. The KN-23 and KN-24’s inaccuracy makes it difficult to predict where exactly a missile will strike in a city, almost certainly increasing civilian casualties. Missiles do not require a high degree of accuracy to strike civilian population centers, meaning that Moscow will likely use the newly acquired missiles for this purpose. The increased maneuverability with Pyongyang’s missiles most likely will cause an increase in missiles passing through Kyiv’s air defense systems. Kyiv may need to increase the number of air defense batteries in cities to adequately defend against these types of unguided strikes.
[Sebastien Bragg]
RUSSIA: Tensions Will Likely Escalate Between Western Allies and Moscow
Summary: Tensions between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Moscow will likely increase between each other due to the Russian-Ukrainian War.
Development: On 12 January, Moscow warned London that if they deploy a military contingent to Ukraine, Moscow will see it as a declaration of war against Moscow. Moscow put London on its unfriendly countries list in March 2022, according to The Russian News Agency. London recently warned the public that if Russian President Vladimir Putin dominates Ukraine, he will attempt to increase domination in other nations as well, according to The Guardian. Since Moscow’s actions pose a threat to the Euro-Atlantic and global security, NATO will continue to support Kyiv, according to NATO. Chief of the alliance’s Military Committee, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, said, “We need a warfighting transformation of NATO,” and they should adjust their thinking to, “an era in which anything can happen at any time, an era in which we need to expect the unexpected, an era in which we need to focus on effectiveness in order to be fully effective,” according to Reuters.
Analysis: Tensions between NATO and Moscow will likely continue to rise as the Russian Ukrainian War continues. Moscow will likely seek to declare war against London for sending Kyiv military aid. Moscow’s increasing domination over Kyiv likely remains a factor in the Moscow-London tensions. Moscow’s proximity to NATO countries could threaten their national security due to the possibility of Moscow seeking to overtake surrounding nations.
[Amy Bodenhamer]
CHINA: Hackers Will Likely Target Taipei’s Election Factors to Hinder Results
Summary: Threat actors will almost certainly target government-connected organizations in Taipei in hopes of affecting the general election. The recent attacks on Taipei’s semiconductors could indicate a threat to mass production organizations as a future target.
Development: On 17 January, the ransomware group LockBit attacked Foxsemicon Integrated Technology, a Taiwanese semiconductor producer. Malware developers programmed LockBit as a crypto-ransomware, indicating that the files would turn into scrambled data, making it extremely difficult for organizations to retrieve without assistance from the affiliates. LockBit threatened the employees to destroy the company, further notifying the organization of five terabytes of personal data stolen, according to SiliconANGLE. Ben Forster commented on the timing of the attack, believing it might have a connection to Taiwan’s general election, according to SiliconANGLE.
Analysis: Threat actors will likely target various components of the Taiwanese government with significant vulnerabilities, potentially impacting government stability and election results. The hackers will likely escalate their targets as the election nears closer since it remains highly likely that targeting one of Taipei’s semiconductor producers indicates a threat toward Taipei officials and organizations the government depends on for flow production.
[Lauren Estrada]
