ISRAEL: Rapid Offensive Likely in Preparation for United Nations General Assembly
Summary: Israel is likely aiming to make significant progress in the conflict in Gaza before the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) discusses the situation to avoid increasing international scrutiny. Israel issued an evacuation order to Gaza while increasing its strikes on the city following Belgium’s plan to join other states in recognizing Palestine.
Development: On 5 September, the Israeli Army struck several high-rise buildings in Gaza and issued a statement to Palestinians ordering them to move to South Gaza. On 1 September, Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prevot stated Brussels would officially recognize Palestine as a state at the upcoming UNGA meeting. By agreeing to this, Belgium joins the signatories of the New York Declaration, including France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and many other countries that have recognized Palestine or plan to at the UNGA. Net favorability toward Israel dropped on average by 18.5 percent from the start of the war to January 2024, according to business intelligence company Morning Consult. Israel’s increase in attacks and continued targeting of densely populated areas has decreased international support throughout the war. The next UNGA meeting begins on 9 September and ends on 28 September, covering topics from global health to humanitarian issues.
Analysis: Jerusalem probably issued its recent evacuation order as part of a wider bid to end the war before the international community meets at the UNGA to discuss the matter. Israel will likely scale up attacks immensely in the next one to two weeks to try to make significant progress before the UNGA discusses the matter. Brussels joining of this initiative displays a concerted effort by the international community to apply diplomatic pressure to Israel. This shows that support for Israel dwindles as more nations call for peace, and favorability for Israel drops. Israel will almost certainly attempt to resolve the war militarily in the near future to maintain its international standing.
[Hunter Flanagan]
SYRIA: Druze Leader’s Militia Consolidation Unlikely to Achieve Independence
Summary: Recent Druze calls for independence from Syria and the formation of the Druze National Guard likely signal continued violence in the Suwayda province but likely will not result in independence.
Development: On 4 September, Druze spiritual leader Hikmat al-Hijri called for self-determination for the Druze in Syria in a Facebook statement reported by Enab Baladi. Hijri stated, “We do not have the ability to negotiate anything other than independence. There is no other way,” during a 30 August meeting with delegations from Druze groups across the Suwayda province, according to Kurdistan 24. Hijri leads the Druze National Guard, a consolidation of most Druze militias formed on 23 August. This follows pro-independence protests in Suwayda city and Shahba on 18 August. This also follows clashes between Bedouin tribes, Druze, and Syrian government forces in Suwayda in July, which killed over 1000, and an attack on a Druze neighborhood south of Damascus in April, which killed 10.
Analysis: These developments will likely fuel further ethnosectarian conflict in southern Syria but will almost certainly not result in an independent Druze state. Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa has repeatedly rejected a federalized system and refused meaningful concessions to ethnoreligious minorities, instead stressing centralized control. Due to his focus on maintaining centralized power, al-Sharaa will almost certainly reject Druze demands for self-determination. Furthermore, international consensus has opposed similar Kurdish desires for independence, making it unlikely that a Druze independence movement would see significant support. Sharaa will almost certainly send Syrian Interior Ministry-controlled troops back into Suwayda if the Druze attempted to enforce self-determination. The formation of the unified Druze National Guard will likely increase Druze groups’ military capabilities, and in turn will likely increase the intensity of future fighting against the Syrian Interior Ministry, while reducing casualties among Druze civilians if the National Guard is able to coordinate effectively. Hijri will likely not begin attempting to gain independence militarily until another round of fighting, similar to the clashes in July, begins.
[Christina Muchow]
YEMEN: Houthis Likely Responsible for Cut Cables and Microsoft Disruption
Summary: The Yemeni Houthis likely cut undersea fiberoptic cables, causing a disruption in Microsoft’s services. The Houthis likely cut the cables in response to a recent Israeli strike, which killed their prime minister and will almost certainly continue both overt and covert actions against Israel.
Development: On 7 September, Microsoft stated that multiple undersea cable cuts occurred in the Red Sea. The cuts caused major internet disruptions in the Middle East and South Asia) as undersea cables carry large amounts of global data traffic into these regions. Israel’s cyber intelligence unit stores vast volumes of intercepted Palestinian phone calls on Microsoft’s cloud servers, according to a joint investigation by The Guardian, +972 Magazine, and Local Call. Additionally on 7 September, the Houthis claimed responsibility for a drone strike against Israel’s Ramon Airport near Eilat that injured two people. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree stated that the Houthis will escalate their attacks against Israel in support of Palestinians in Gaza. On 31 August, Yemen’s Houthis vowed vengeance against Israel after confirming the death of their prime minister, along with other ministers, following an Israeli air strike on Sanaa. On 4 March 2024, the Houthi rebels targeted three other global internet and telecommunications cables within Yemeni maritime jurisdictions in the Southern Red Sea.
Analysis: Houthis likely caused the Microsoft disruption in response to the Israeli strike on their prime minister. The recent Israeli attack on the Houthi’s prime minister almost certainly caused widespread anger within the group and sparked internal need for revenge. Following the investigation into Microsoft’s cloud storage usage, the Houthi’s likely targeted the undersea cables for the potential impact on Israeli operations. Additionally, the 2024 cable cuts within Yemeni maritime jurisdiction, although not claimed, likely illustrates a pattern in Houthi-Israeli discourse. The Houthis will almost certainly continue public action against Israel in the name of Palestinian support while also pursuing covert actions.
[Hailey Thatcher]
