MOLDOVA: Russian Pressure Very Likely to Intensify Following Election Results
Summary: Moldova’s pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) gained Parliament seats in the 28 September elections, likely strengthening President Maia Sandu’s European Union (EU) integration plan. This victory will very likely increase Russian pressure on the country.
Development: On 28 September, Moldovan voters gave the ruling pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) an electoral edge over Moscow-aligned opposition groups, according to AP News. This represents a significant shift in Moldova’s post-Soviet geopolitical alignment; analysts told The Guardian. The PAS has pushed toward economic reform and EU integration since coming to power in 2020, according to AP News. Russia, however, retains leverage through Moldova’s energy dependence and its support for the separatist region of Transnistria, according to AP News. Moscow has been accused of financing opposition parties and organizing protests in Chișinău, per The Guardian. Moldova received EU candidate status in 2022.
Analysis: Moldova will likely deepen its EU integration efforts and strengthen domestic institutions following PAS’s electoral gains. Moscow will very likely seek to maintain influence by escalating hybrid tactics, leveraging energy dependence, and encouraging political agitation through its allies in Transnistria. Domestic polarization could weaken PAS if inflation and energy costs remain high, leaving the public vulnerable to Russian narratives. For the EU, Moldova’s trajectory likely represents both an opportunity to demonstrate increased credibility and a vulnerability along NATO’s southeastern flank. A destabilized Moldova would likely complicate Black Sea security, challenge EU unity, and provide Moscow with another vector to pressure Europe.
[Gavin Packard]
HAITI: United Nations Meeting Unlikely to Result in Enough Aid to Resolve Crisis
Summary: Despite Haitian leaders’ statements to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) and recent aid proposals, the meeting will likely not result in enough new aid to significantly alter the security or humanitarian crisis in Haiti.
Development: On 25 September, head of the Haitian Transitional Presidential Council Laurent Saint-Cyr addressed the UNGA, requesting additional financial and security assistance to create peace and address a humanitarian crisis in Haiti. Saint-Cyr also expressed support for a joint Washington-Panama City proposal to authorize a 5,550-member mission to fight the gangs. Acting U.S. Ambassador to the UN Dorothy Shea announced the proposal on 28 August, and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is expected to vote on it by the end of September, according to the Associated Press. On 23 September, Ottawa pledged approximately $28.7 million to support the new proposal if authorized, alongside approximately $14.3 million for increasing maritime security in the Caribbean to stop weapon and drug trafficking to and via Haiti. Gang violence in Haiti killed more than 3,100 people in the first half of 2025, and more than half of the country’s population is likely experiencing severe hunger despite the current UN-authorized, Kenyan-led police mission, according to the Associated Press. The current mission has less than 40 percent of the authorized staff, only 14 percent of the estimated funding requirements, and significant supply chain problems, according to the Associated Press and Kenyan President William Ruto, as reported by InAfrika.
Analysis: Despite recent developments, the UNGA will likely not result in enough aid to resolve or significantly reduce the ongoing security crisis. There is a roughly even chance that the UNSC will authorize the proposed 5,550-member force before the current plan expires. If not, it will likely be due to opposition from Beijing and Moscow, which opposed a 2024 Washington-led resolution to create a UN peacekeeping mission in Haiti. If the plan is approved, the mission will likely never achieve full funding or staffing at the levels required to reclaim control from the gangs, establish peace, or significantly improve the humanitarian condition.
[Christina Muchow]
CHINA: Release of Naval Test Media Probably a Move to Shape Talks with Washington
Summary: Beijing probably published media about advanced technology and fixed-wing tests on its new aircraft carrier while U.S. lawmakers visit the country to influence military dialogue between the nations.
Development: On 22 September, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) media outlets announced that Beijing’s newest aircraft carrier, Fujian, began conducting fixed-wing flight operations in the South China Sea. The Fujian launched next-generation fighters using electromagnetic catapult systems, an advanced technology used to catapult fixed-wing aircraft off a carrier in a small amount of space. PLA media outlets never previously released the images and videos, although many date back as far as last year, according to Naval News. The Fujian’s technologies and capabilitiesrepresent a strategic shift from defense to far-sea military projection for Beijing, according to The People’s Daily Online. On 23 September, Washington DC lawmakers arrived in China to discuss boosting military cooperation and military-to-military communication.
Analysis: Beijing probably released media about its new carrier technology to influence current military discussions with US lawmakers in China. Beijing likely saved the months-old media from tests on the Fujian to release when the dignitaries arrived. By doing this, Beijing likely intended to call attention to the PLA’s rapid technological advancement and strategic shift from local naval defense to the projection of power globally. Ultimately, Beijing probably aims to use this information to frighten and influence the visiting lawmakers and dignitaries into participating in military discussions that favor Beijing’s global interests.
[Cade Cunningham]
