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Download ISRAEL: Prisoner Negotiations with Hamas Unlikely to Succeed Summary: Jerusalem’s prisoner transfer negotiations with Hamas are unlikely to succeed due to continued conflict during the ceasefire, along with Hamas’s poor treatment of prisoners and conflicting objectives. Development: On 8 March, phase one of the ceasefire with Hamas ended. Jerusalem and Hamas signaled they are … Continue reading Eagle Eye 469

Download ISRAEL: Clashes With New Syrian Security Force Could Lead to Unintended Conflict Summary: A Damascus suburb, Jaramana, saw a shootout at a security checkpoint between new government forces and residents, which could lead to unintended conflict between Damascus and Jerusalem. Development: On 28 February, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights announced that Ahmed Al-Khatib, … Continue reading Eagle Eye 468

Download PANAMA: Investment Plan Likely Presents Opportunity for Fiscal Investment Summary: Panama’s $350 million Mulino plan, following its Belt and Road exit, seeks new investors. Panama City likely favors the United States (U.S.) due to historic ties and recent diplomatic interest, especially in infrastructure and canal projects. Development: On 21 February, according to Panama Perspective, … Continue reading Eagle Eye 467

Download DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO: Rebels Likely to Expand Control in East Summary: March 23 Movement (M23) rebels will likely continue to expand their territorial control over the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which very likely lacks the leverage to oppose M23 or its backers in Kigali diplomatically or militarily. Development: On … Continue reading Eagle Eye 466

Download NORTH KOREA: Unlikely to Pursue Threatened Armed Conflict with the United States Summary: Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un’s recent comments on pursuing armed conflict with the U.S. will most likely remain as empty threats to maintain the possibility of reunifying with South Korea. Development: On 11 February, Pyongyang stated its military … Continue reading Eagle Eye 465

Download CHINA: Newly Emerged Submarine Likely to Deter Western Threat in South China Sea Summary: A new submarine of unreported design emerged in China’s southern waters, and Beijing probably intended it to deter the West from reaching near Taiwan and the South China Sea. Beijing had recently disclosed a new design, but it did not … Continue reading Eagle Eye 464

Download SYRIA: Threat of Conflict Likely to Integrate Forces into the Transitional Government Summary: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) refused the Transitional Government’s request to dissolve its military bloc. The SDF currently holds roughly 10,000 ISIS fighters under its prison authority. The transition of prison authority from the SDF to the Transitional Government may pose vulnerabilities … Continue reading Eagle Eye 463

DOWnload CHINA: Brokered Myanmar Ceasefire Likely to Last Longer than Broken 2024 Ceasefire Summary: The ceasefire agreement between the Junta military regime and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) will likely last longer than the January 2024 ceasefire agreement due to the Junta reestablishing control of Lashio. Development: On 20 January, Beijing facilitated a … Continue reading Eagle Eye 462