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Download BRAZIL: Political Corruption Highly Likely to Damage Public’s View of Government Summary: The continuous political corruption within the Brazilian government, exemplified by ongoing charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro, will likely damage the public’s confidence in the government. Given the Supreme Court’s recent ruling, the courts will likely convict Bolsonaro of an attempted coup. … Continue reading Eagle Eye 472

Download BANGLADESH: Chinese Presence Likely Intended to Support Seizure of Northeast India Summary: Bangladesh’s Interim Government Advisor’s recent request for Beijing to expand its economic presence in Bangladesh likely indicates Dhaka’s moving position to prepare a seizure of Northeast India. Development: On 31 March, reports stated that Bangladesh’s Interim Government Advisor, Muhammad Yunus, asked Beijing … Continue reading Eagle Eye 471

Download SUDAN: Khartoum’s Recapture Could Likely Lead to a Momentum Shift Summary: Government forces recaptured the Khartoum airport from a paramilitary group, which could likely lead to a momentum shift in the Sudanese Civil War. Development: On 26 March, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recaptured the capital of Sudan, Khartoum, according to Al Jazeera. SAF … Continue reading Eagle Eye 470

Download ISRAEL: Prisoner Negotiations with Hamas Unlikely to Succeed Summary: Jerusalem’s prisoner transfer negotiations with Hamas are unlikely to succeed due to continued conflict during the ceasefire, along with Hamas’s poor treatment of prisoners and conflicting objectives. Development: On 8 March, phase one of the ceasefire with Hamas ended. Jerusalem and Hamas signaled they are … Continue reading Eagle Eye 469

Download ISRAEL: Clashes With New Syrian Security Force Could Lead to Unintended Conflict Summary: A Damascus suburb, Jaramana, saw a shootout at a security checkpoint between new government forces and residents, which could lead to unintended conflict between Damascus and Jerusalem. Development: On 28 February, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights announced that Ahmed Al-Khatib, … Continue reading Eagle Eye 468

Download PANAMA: Investment Plan Likely Presents Opportunity for Fiscal Investment Summary: Panama’s $350 million Mulino plan, following its Belt and Road exit, seeks new investors. Panama City likely favors the United States (U.S.) due to historic ties and recent diplomatic interest, especially in infrastructure and canal projects. Development: On 21 February, according to Panama Perspective, … Continue reading Eagle Eye 467

Download DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO: Rebels Likely to Expand Control in East Summary: March 23 Movement (M23) rebels will likely continue to expand their territorial control over the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which very likely lacks the leverage to oppose M23 or its backers in Kigali diplomatically or militarily. Development: On … Continue reading Eagle Eye 466

Download NORTH KOREA: Unlikely to Pursue Threatened Armed Conflict with the United States Summary: Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un’s recent comments on pursuing armed conflict with the U.S. will most likely remain as empty threats to maintain the possibility of reunifying with South Korea. Development: On 11 February, Pyongyang stated its military … Continue reading Eagle Eye 465

Download CHINA: Newly Emerged Submarine Likely to Deter Western Threat in South China Sea Summary: A new submarine of unreported design emerged in China’s southern waters, and Beijing probably intended it to deter the West from reaching near Taiwan and the South China Sea. Beijing had recently disclosed a new design, but it did not … Continue reading Eagle Eye 464

Download SYRIA: Threat of Conflict Likely to Integrate Forces into the Transitional Government Summary: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) refused the Transitional Government’s request to dissolve its military bloc. The SDF currently holds roughly 10,000 ISIS fighters under its prison authority. The transition of prison authority from the SDF to the Transitional Government may pose vulnerabilities … Continue reading Eagle Eye 463